What goes up must come down. Everything reverts to the mean. It's not different this time - it's never different. And periods of speculative craziness always end badly.
This time, with the vast majority of the US population involved, and infinite margin (no-down loans) in many cases, the bust will be horrific.
The recent housing boom is the biggest the United States has ever seen, but its underlying reasons may have been psychological, economist Robert J. Shiller said on Friday. New data also suggest the market might be at the end of a cycle, he added.
The only time since 1890 that compares to the recent residential real estate market is just after World War II, the Yale University professor said during a presentation on U.S. home prices, held at Standard & Poor's in New York and broadcast to journalists on the Web.
"After World War II, the soldiers came back and they wanted houses and started the baby boom. And when you had babies, you wanted houses with at least two bedrooms -- and that wasn't so common back then. They went on a buying spree and it pushed home prices up," he said.
The recent boom, however, doesn't have the same fundamental variables causing prices to soar, he said, adding that variation in such things as building costs, population and interest rates doesn't adequately explain the reason for the housing boom.
"I don't see why home prices should be shooting up that strongly," Shiller said, adding that speculation may have played a role. "It's a sign of concern."
June 17, 2006
Shiller: U.S. housing boom is biggest since 1890. HousingPanic: US housing bust will be the biggest in history
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49 comments:
saw it on CNBC. he was very truthful and concise about this argument... the bubble is popping as we speak. GOT AN UPDATE ON A HOME IN Surprise, AZ... that is the town name btw... was listed for 325. reduced to 315, then 305, then 295, my buddy then offered 275k in may... they rejected... i just checked it today.. and it is listed for 265k.
I know Surprise well. Probablly he bought his dump last year @ 200k. It's not a bad profit.
The bubble is now riding the "bend" after the rise, waiting for the drop. Lets also be clear, the bubble has NOT popped yet, though it is extremely close. This fall (September-November) the bubble will officially pop as mass deceleration will take over causing a major drop in prices in a short time. Most people don't think this will happen, they will be VERY surprised when it does and it will probably force the world wide Real Estate bubbles to blow likewise. Foreclosures will skyrocket, mass bankruptcies and other financial institutions of the bubble will collapse. Fannie Mae will get out into the public(which they are trying to hide) as the next Enron. Massive panic financial shocks will occur during this September-November period that will level the system as the Market returns calling for names. The Winter and Spring should see things return more to a stable pace of deceleration, but the intial popping heard world wide. A mini-1929 it will be. The great speculative boom is over.
It will be a nasty fallout.
count me with the softer landing folks. this stuff always runs in cycles and this one will also. the people who get hurt badly will be the last in rookies who always get hurt.
radondude,
no way, it will be a painful devastating crash, take a look at consumer debt numbers ... credit cards auto loans ect.the world has never seen numbers like this.take away debt instruments from the middle class and it gets ugly.
Location location location is the key, and always will be. I conduct inspections all around Md, and we are very very busy. That said, we see a slow down and price drops in many local areas. The amount of buyers is close to “normal” if you throw out the last few years. (I have been doing inspections for 20 years) We are doing a lot of pre-listing inspections, just like 5 years ago and beyond, so a well priced and clean listing sells quickly. But people need to remember dynamic analysis. Many of the doom and gloomers simply add up the statistics and forget the fact that some wild card is always added. i.e. arm’s , neg am’s, extended terms, and if it gets bad banks will renegotiate terms rather them foreclose. Based on static analysis, the USA went bankrupt in 1999 but were still here. Remember it is always an election year somewhere and the Government nannies can step in and spend our money. I just got a letter today from WAMU about my neg am loan asking if I want to change some of the terms. I don't
My gay lover says do not worry he is a smart man. Smarter than most. You all should be listening to him.
the real radondude: I guess thats the way you argue when you can't think of anything else
“radondude said...
………. I conduct inspections all around Md, and we are very very busy……”
“……We are doing a lot of pre-listing inspections, just like 5 years ago and beyond, so a well priced and clean listing sells quickly……..”
With that premise, of course you’re “very very” busy. Inventory is “very very” high.
“…….Many of the doom and gloomers simply add up the statistics and forget the fact that some wild card is always added. i.e. arm’s , neg am’s, extended terms, and if it gets bad banks will renegotiate terms rather them foreclose.”
So, there has not been an increase in foreclosures? ARMS are not re-setting? The thing about statistics, they don’t lie. No emotional attachment there. Foreclosures up 74%? Inventory doubled? Do these things have merit when I place an offer? Naw, just take the RE agents word for it. Housing never goes down, they’re not making any more land…………
The only wild cards I “worry” about are the suckers that walk in to a RE agents office and just must buy a house. They don’t even have the smarts to ask for inventory/foreclosure levels or ask about the current trends. Whatever the RE agents say must be true! After all, they have no vested interest if they buy right? Alas, these will be the last ones holding the bag.
>>>GOT AN UPDATE ON A HOME IN Surprise, AZ... that is the town name btw... was listed for 325. reduced to 315, then 305, then 295, my buddy then offered 275k in may... they rejected... i just checked it today.. and it is listed for 265k.
Tell your buddy it is still too early. He should be happy that the $275K was rejected. We are not yet near the bottom.
---Russ in Surprise, AZ
It's nice to have a discussion vs the previous post.
My wife and I were looking south of Clearwater last year to complete a 1031 exchange from homes that we bought and flipped. A large amount of the condos were recently bought by local Realtors and a non-sustainable bubble was obvious. We chose to pay the Cap gains tax, over 100k, and stop "investing", so I do agree that a slow down and correction is due and happening. But it will only happen locally.
Regarding your counter points:
Our business is way up because of buyers now asking for and getting inspections. The pre-listing inspections are over and above ( at this point ) The amount of buyers we have today is almost exactly the same as 5 years ago
As for forclosures and such, sure their up and they will be. People always make bad investment calls and always will. Anyone who buys ANYTHING on emotion can get burned. That will only be the last ones in. But that goes for homes , stocks , futures or baseball trading cards. With a home you can always just live in it until the prices rebound. If things get very bad, banks will renegotiate and not foreclose. They did that in CA during that local dot.com crash.
I feel badly for the people who have to sell for normal reasons. Estate, relo, ect
Statistics don't lie, thats true, but its the misinterpretation of data that’s crucial.
Anyone who believes everything a Realtor tells them is a fool. Realtors ,good or bad, are salespeople and one needs to understand that going in. Those being the ones holding the bag….unfortunately always are
The reason why to have doom and gloom is, this IS the speculative bubble.
Once it goes, the world economy contracts and the recovery could be meager and snarled by another 2 recessions by 2012.
Who knows when the Real Estate bubble 'officially' bursts, considering the slowing of appreciation, I would argue the market comes calling in the September-November period when the debt ridden Real Estate industry and consumer deflate. The Central Bank has been trying to squeeze "some" of the cheap money from the system lately, which I figure they will continue to do.........but this is nastily similiar to 1928-29 "policy normalizationa" when they tried to cull the liquidty, but they were to late. A massive financial panic occured during the fall of 1929 which sent the world economy reeling.
I feel a financial panic on the "general theme of 1929" will occur this fall. The end of a era. 1996-2006 RIP.
Anon, you are very smart about your comparison to 1929, the stock market is telling me we will be in recession in Q4. Notice how inventories of homes are skyrocketing? By Q4 when the layoffs start the fire sale prices will begin, once it starts you can toss that location crap into the dumpster, all homes will lose most of their value, it's gonna get real ugly.
I will have 0 debt on my balance sheet next month, most of my money is in money market, I have a quarter of that in BEARX, I speculate on these dead cat bounces in commodities with 5%, sell immediately when I have a small profit.
Skyrocketing inventory is the sign that the bubble has "curved" and crested. Slowed Appreciation is another sign.
Now as I said, that ISN'T the bubble popping, but a pre-condition of the pop which began Q4 2005. Usually it is about a year before when this condition arises that the massive speculatory bubble begins to wobble, holes popping and chaos close to beginning. Thus when we are about 12 months after this pre-condition, the economy slows signifigently(I agree Q4 recession likely) if not contract, foreclosures skyrocket and sellers bailout with whatever they can get causing a quicker depreciation than expected which causes the financial sector to panic which crashes the market.
Shiller is hoping for a hard landing. I hope it is just that. 4-5 sluggish years the economy rebounds with better fundamentals, but I am worried about a crash. It probably won't be 1929, but in this spoiled society, it may seem like it.
I’m sorry gang, but I just don’t buy it. The predictions of a 1929 depression have been around for years. The predictors always point to coincidental data and try to extrapolate it into future predictions. What does local excess inventory have to do with a national economy? The excess in Fl. has no impact on Md. or any other state. The speculation in NV has no impact on PA. Once again, you are falling prey to static analysis. When I bought my first home in 1980 and the rates were 20% all my family said I was crazy. They said how are you going to survive using over 50% of your income to pay for a home. Well, anonymous said it when he mentioned commodities: leverage Shiller wrote an interesting book about speculative bubbles and the stock market, BUT it was after the dot.com crash. He predicted this bubble, BUT 5 years too soon. I’ve made over a half million dollars since. I have a 50% equity position in my current house, so go ahead and take 15% or 20%. The tax advantages from the last 30 years have been great. The investments that you have touted are short term Cap Gains….ouch. Until the unemployment rate tops 8% or rates top 10% there will not be a crash…..there has not been a national crash since 1895, and there will not be one this time.
You are a home inspector visiting Housing Panic? Some things are so obvious they need no debate.
I am an environmental inspector. ( radon & mold ) My wife and I have bought 12 homes for shelter, investment, and flipping. We are about to buy in FL. and find these blogs a good source of info. Unlike many of you, we do not wish anything bad nor do we speak in a negative fashion about anyone. I invest in stocks…long MA only at this point…..Dabble in futures…long sugar and cotton….have money in MM funds..Cap 1 4.85% Why do you think I would post here ??? Must I agree to belong? You can learn more when not just listening to the choir. I think the majority of folks here are way above average IQ and I read and research the posts.
radondude said...
“....The excess in Fl. has no impact on Md. or any other state. The speculation in NV has no impact on PA……”
You live in a bubble?
The locals here are always touting “new job growth”. Who will fill these positions? If X% of the nation is seeing drop in home prices, what percent of those possible “new” workers will sell their homes at a loss, then move to MD and purchase a home in a “hot market”? If they currently rent, they may not have equity and/or can not afford a down payment for a “hot market” so the move would be negate in terms of buying.
The specuvestors in MD see great deals in FL, NV, and other localities with high inventories and dropping prices. Why invest locally when a specuvestor can get more bang for the buck in sunny FL?
I see an impact.
I don't mean to pick on Radondude but I'm tired of posters "educating" the board about the need for "dynamic analysis" and then making rediculous statements as below to back up their "dynamic analysis"
"..this stuff always runs in cycles and this one will also.."
- this statement says nothing about how fast, deep, and long the downcycle will be.
"..I conduct inspections all around Md, and we are very very busy.."
- this is "dynamic analysis" of data?, I'm glad your business is doing well but I assume your not a national chain of inspectors so as far as the subject of this thread, completely meaningless and irrelevant.
"The amount of buyers we have today is almost exactly the same as 5 years ago"
- 5 years ago the US was either in a recession, going into a recession, or just starting to come out of a recession so this isn't too comforting seeing as how the number of buyers is continuing on a downward trend.
I'll give my own version of Radondude's housing/economic analysis..."I just got a promotion at my job, 15 percent raise and additional paid vacation days per year, therefore the national economy is booming.
There sure is a lot of venom here….The dynamic analysis I speak of is not my personal situations. My life is anecdotal towards the nation as a whole. You’re making that mistake too. Real estate values are ALWAYS local. That’s why prices did not rise in PIT or DAY among others. That alone refutes your concept of national anything. Believe me regarding our economy as a whole I understand the problems down the line. Debtor nation, currency weakness, SS liability ect.
I’ve asked a few times now for someone to enlighten me as to the last nation real estate crash. The reason no one answers me is because there has never been one! Regarding the static analysis comment, you assume that your statistics will always add up…They don’t !!!
I never said a thing about new job growth, I said you need a drop to over 8% Unemployment. I’m sorry to be “meaningless and irrelevant” but you would do well to listen to someone who actually participates in the field that you would like to discuss. I am personally involved with every aspect of the discussion, unlike those who profess to be knowledgeable. Since I am on the front lines, you would think that would be interesting. I don’t just talk about the industry, I’m knee deep in it. But since I don’t tote the company line, I am dismissed. Well rather then insult or dismiss me, try to debate me. When was the last national housing crash ???
To anonymous: Regarding educating you about dynamic analysis, it’s simply static analysis has never worked out. What is so tough to understand? Comparisons to 1929 are useless. Check with Amazon.com, there a a zillion books that have predicted doom and each and every time something happed that delayed it. THAT IS DYNAMIC ANALYSIS! When I bought a house in 1980 and the rates were near 20% along came ARM’s, oops no doom when the stock markets crashed in 2000 along came Reits and real estate, oops no doom When Reagan took over in 1980 and the doomers were talking about the need for multiple presidents along came the PC oops no doom During the recession of the early 90’s along came the internet and the dot.coms oops no doom on and on and on we fall victim to the inability to forecast due to static analysis
The funny thing is I probably agree with you people more then you think. Since I cashed out of the market because I saw a large correction coming in many areas. Writing that Cap gains check was very painful, but hold a position or initiating a new position in the current market would be like catching the proverbial dagger.
Anon, your obviously not understanding my claim. I am not saying this will be a 1929 level of crash...........I am saying it will be a 1929 "like" in that the financial world takes a serious downturn in a very short period of time.
As the previous poster said, a major correction is coming. The massive speculatory bubble that has went on for the last 10 years is nearing correction. If you can't see that, I don't feel sorry for you.
Hey Radondude, I hate to break it to you, but most of the countrys RE value is in a few states, California, New York, Florida, when these states catch cold, the flyover states, will be on a deathbed. 12% of the economy is now based on "housing", when that goes into the toilet, it will bring the ecoomy down with it, no more HELOC's to keep things going, getting the picture now?
Lucky for some states, they may not feel the bust as bad as others. The Midwest for example, may not feel it a whole deal, don't get me wrong, anytime a massive speculatory bust happens, it will probably be felt nationwide, but considering the Midwest has struggled since the last Recession, it won't be the impact it will on the Atlantic,Gulf,Pacific coasts. Most Mid-westerners will say, oh, the Nation is in a recession? They are already there.
So when was the last national crash??? I'm still waiting...
Oh by the way when the CA market crashed why didn't the nation crash then?
Location Location Location....
So when was the last national crash??? I'm still waiting...
Considering there has never been this much of a speculative runup in housing prices, we cannot use the absence of a past national housing crash to predict that there will not be a future national housing crash.
Radondude, your arguments, while informative, are not sound. Let's use this example:
"Real estate values are ALWAYS local. That’s why prices did not rise in PIT or DAY among others."
Prices didn't rise, but they didn't fall either like they should have based on the local economic conditions.
"most of the countrys RE value is in a few states, California, New York, Florida, when these states catch cold, the flyover states, will be on a deathbed." Agree 100%.
Based on your arguments, housing should be declining in fly-over country and rising on the coasts. Tampa, FL was up 33% last year. St. Louis, MO was up 16% last year. What gives? Based on demographics and growth, Tampa should be up ~15% and ST. Louis should be down 5%.
Radondude, good luck. You might be busy in MD but I can tell directly from Ground Zero of bubbleville (south Florida) that things here couldn't be colder in the real estate market.
With a home you can always just live in it until the prices rebound.
This one statement of Radondude's stuck out at me. I'm sorry, but when someone's ARM resets, and the value of their house has fallen 10% leaving them zero ability to re-fi, they don't have the luxury of always "just living in it".
Instead, they get the luxury of foreclosure. With the foreclosure rates already up 70% in some places (even flyover country) just from the first '06 resets, you can bet your ass this will have a huge impact.
Just because you haven't seen it yet, doesn't mean it won't happen. According to history, every Empire has fallen at some point. Ours won't be any different. The timing of the claim may have been wrong, but it doesn't make the claim any less true.
Hey moman: a point well taken about the fact that there has never been this kind of run up. That is why I believe the correction will be nasty local, but slower nationally. We have very hot and colder areas here, but homes with a hook, ( good schools , waterfront ect ect do great and always have and always will.
BTW I have been to FL. three time this year looking at homes….WOW 8% absorption rate , normal I think os over 60%….vacant homes all over…..96 units for sale in this one flipper village out of 150……ground zero is well put
Hey Anonymous; your scenario about Arm’s resetting is true but you are negating the past run up. I have a Neg Am loan…love it…. and even when the reset is higher, I have a 70% increase in the from a few years past will cover a 10% decline. People who have spent all their equity are fools. But these people were fools before the RE run up…They would blow their money on something.
Regarding the fall of the empire, that is a great conversation point. Your right, every empire comes down. The reason the USA will not fall now, is based on the theory of violence. Economics be damned, were a debtor nation, and we should have collapsed a few years back, but as the only military super power and watchdog, the world will not let that happen until some other country can takes our place. As history has pointed out, once a country loses the will to fight or destroy, it is doomed
radondude
Good point on the Theory of Violence, economics be damned, etc. What is your take on China's growth, and other nations diversifying away from the dollar?
Does this not seem to imply the starting attempts to pull away from their dependence upon the US?
Also, considering how thin our troops are stretched (regardless of personal political persuasions here), this leaves our military forces considerably weakened. This has not gone un-noticed by other nations either.
To me this signifies that we need to get our house back in order so to speak, else the rest of the world will be able to let us collapse on ourself and take over our military duties just fine.
A little off topic I know, but it seems to me that a huge financial upheaval along with a weakened miliary does not look good for future purposes.
"but as the only military super power and watchdog, the world will not let that happen until some other country can takes our place"
This is hilarious!
Just before Germany invaded Austria, Hitler promised he wouldn't. The world's leaders actually believed him!
The reason why Hitler got away with so much is because everyone thought Germany was powerless. This fueled German nationalism to the point where Germans were just as blind to Hitler's goals as the others.
If there is one thing that hostory keeps on showing us is that blind optimism and a sense of being on top of the world is very dangerous. Americans are full of both.
Danielle
Hi Danielle; hilarious, I think not. I do not agree with that way of doing business, but might makes right. You actually make my point regarding Germany. Once any empire or great power succumbs to weakness or expansion ( romans, greeks, USSR ) it is doomed. As for the peoples blindness to Hilter, don’t be naïve. Even the French had a higher level of personal production during the occupation. Like it or not the USA is the leader of the world, if you don’t see that watch the worlds stock markets and economies after a bad day in the US.
China is THE wildcard in the deck.
Military strength is no longer predicated on infantry ( queen of battle ) They all remember Hiroshima and the fear of a button.
Unfortunately, I do not believe the USA can remain on top much longer….I guess 50 years max… I think it was Voltaire (sp) who said that once a democracy learns to increase its pay….it will collapse! At last count 1 out of every 2.5 Americans, get some form of Gov. check. That is unsustainable and professional politicians can not ask for it back. Without term limits all is lost
Hi Fewlesh well I am not a troll…The mistake you make is assumption….see static analysis again. I put a large down payment in , just like buyers future contracts with a larger deposit to counteract the leverage, The monthly payment I make is larger then the minimum by 25%, as such I accumulated 16k in equity during the first 2 years. It would take 10 to 12 years using a normal amortization schedule. I invested the difference and did just fine. The Japan model is worthless…different culture, land mass, power factor ect ect. When was that last US national housing crash again?????
Your statistical PITI stuff is interesting but you can’t compare local and national….We sold our rental units in Rehoboth due to dropping rents, but that was overbuilding not economic based. Staking currency vs hard money is a fruitless position…ask the Hunt Bros…all capital is based on confidence and the ability to hold it. If the “wrong people take over, they will take your gold from under your bed
Radondude:
Two similarities between US & Japan:
1) Both nations had a period where everyone including hookers, dead people, and bartenders were gaga over housing
2) Both countries return to reality was (will be) ugly. It will happen here too. It sure pisses me off that I will pay for the mistakes of fools, but that comes with living in a democratic society where marketing has run amok and stupid people can take out loans they have a snowballs chance in hell of repaying.
Hey moman;
I can’t argue with #1…..I read a news piece a few months back and the author was a very large investor. The pizza delivery guy was telling him about the two condo units , in that building, that he was trying to flip. The investor paid for the pie and looked at his wife and said we sell everything tomorrow morning……that sure sounds like the famous 1929 stock tip from the shoe shine boy story
As for #2, I just don’t see the similar comparison. Not in facts, just in size and scope.
Regarding stupid people, refer to my comment about the death of our country. You can’t provide checks to everyone , increase the amounts and not collapse. That was the intial downfall of the Roman Empire. Every single problem facing the US today can find a root in “lifetime professional politicians”
Radondude:
Naive?
Ever heard the expression turn a blind eye? Some knew they'd profit, many more thought nothing would happen to them.
I know the US is the superpower right now. But many countries could do a lot of damage. Many Americnas today just don't see this.
Radondude:
Your points about the "lifetime politcos" are well taken.
My Masters' thesis will be titled "The SUV Effect and the Monthly payment paradox effect on the US Economy"
The hypotesis is that people are so consumed with rampant consumerism to meet fads that everyone is shortchanging their future for the present. When houses (a traditional depeciating asset - land appreciates and let's not confuse the two) have become a new store of value (equal to gold), we are in a serious danger zone.
Fewlesh fewlesh fewlesh I have never ever said it is different this time…..As a matter of fact it’s not different this time, because there has never been a national crash!!! Japan was a national bubble….dot.com was a total bubble real estate is and always has been and always will be local. The run up in US housing , while dramatic, is no where near Japan. ( were not buildings in Japan “valued” more then some US states? ) Now that’s a bubble Your point about neg am would be correct if I planned to stay in the home for some time. The internal rate is still below 6% and it’s 2.5 years old. That type of loan is an excellent tool when used by the right person at the right time.
Why did the Chinese increase their positions , with our debt, when the rates were low?
Shiller wrote a great book about the dot.com and other bubbles…..well after the crash. I read the same stuff in the paper the next day. Shiller is now shilling ( I couldn’t resist” selling housing futures as a hedge, is he not….That’s like Hillary Clinton heading up the so called heath insurance reform, damning the pharmaceuticals, while her “blind trust” was shorting the stocks.
BTW don’t your T-bills return in “deflated dollars” ?
Fewlesh
I could not get your charts from 1979 or 1987 to come up….no problem because I was there and bought my first home in 1980…20% rates bad stuff. Bought my house for 65K …refied in 1983 and cashed out a nice chunk ( tax free) and bought my first business. Held the home till 1992, no I did not have to file bankruptcy due to the downturn, and sold it for 175K . I won’t bore you with the profits since
Good morning fewlesh
The most important word in your post was: LOCAL
I expect to see those and larger reductions within the foreseeable data points.
Real life example: yesterday I had 3 inspections, 1 is $1.35m, 1 is 850K and 1 is 399K the mean price of these home is a worthless statistic, since they are in different counties and substance. The 1.35m home was priced at 1.5m , then dropped to a new price of 1.35m. you could say it’s a 13% reduction or you can say the 1.5m was too high. That being said I have found about 75K in needed repairs and since the market has changed they will be asked to repair and they will.
850K home stated at 899K BUT were offering 10K closing costs help…needed repairs about 10K now is that a 7.5% reduction?
The 399K home stated at 425K and they were offering a seller giveback of 20K ( closing help or repair help) my point is, all these numbers at this point are mush. Just like a object propelled into the air , at some point propulsion ceases and momentum takes over. I think the propulsion stopped summer of 2005 and the momentum continued. Anything priced from mid 2005 has no meaning. Anyone who bought after that time is screwed unless they can hold. TRUE price reduction amounts will not be known until we have a lot more data points.
That’s why Shillers book was late, he had to wait to see if it was a crash or a correction. 20/20 hindsight is a beautiful thing
Radon:
You're wrong about Shiller's book. The first one came on 3/2000, right at the height of the stock market. He could not have timed that, it was pure luck.
The second book was released 4/2005, only 3 months prior to the peak.
Shiller is using pure economic analysis to predict outcomes, and he is spot on the money. Economics wins every time while fads come and go.
my Shiller book is dated 2001, but I did an amazon check and 2000 is listed, but 2001 is also listed for 1st edition. That said the Dow Jones ( djia ) peak was:
Jan 14, 2000 11722.98 close
by
Feb. 25 2000 9862.12 close
a little late..
But the Nasdaq peak was March 10, 2000 5048.25
soooo were both right
BTW much of his econonic stance is spot on. Bubbles happen in everything, but is real estate a FAD?
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