Condo conversions the MSM says. Probably some truth to that.
But there's this thing called the Housing Panic that is likely the main driver.
Pop.
Walking through Del Mar Villas, a condo conversion project just off the 56 Freeway in Carmel Valley, is a little eerie.It’s impossible to walk more than a few paces among the tightly packed green-and-white condos -- that used to be rental apartments -- without spotting at least one “for sale” sign.
In some parts of the project, one can look around and see half a dozen of the placards, which range from shiny Century 21 signs to hand-written plastic boards, tacked up on balcony walls.
Russ Valone, president and CEO of MarketPointe Realty Advisors in San Diego, said that since 1996, 21,563 apartments have been converted into condo conversions. Of those, some 14,576 have been sold. Valone estimated that 80 percent of those sales took place in the last three years.
Valone and other experts said that a slew of condo conversions hitting the market must be at least part of the reason why new home prices in San Diego took a huge dive from April to May. The median price of a new home in the county dropped 17 percent or $71,500 in that time, according to figures released Wednesday by DataQuick information systems. The median sales price for new homes is also down 4.4 percent compared to last year at this time.
June 15, 2006
San Diego median price falls $71,500 in one month - "Where Did That Come from?"
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
9 comments:
OK.. so what is the median sales price in San Diego? Just curious. I have been told for years, the homeownership dream there is in the stratosphere. How much are those Carmel Valley condos?
condo conversions are usually how much? $300,000? $400,000 tops. So a $350,000 asking price is now $300,000. Big deal. That's not going to account for the $71,000 drop!
You take a Bressie Ranch 3500 sqft home in Carlsbad that sold for $1.0 mil before. The builder's planned exit for the entire community is Thanksgiving. A buyer comes along and say they'll take that same unit for $900,000 plus front yard landscaping, flooring, and crown molding. We're really talking a $150,000 drop. But on paper that's a $100,000 drop.
So you get $100,000 drops on the higher end. And you get $50,000 drops on the condo conversions. And you end up somewhere in the middle for a $71,000 price drop. But guess what, it really should have been a $100,000 drop because we didn't calculate in the $50,000 of upgrade Bressie Ranch threw in for the new owner.
I need to get my digital camera out. .
and walk around downtown SD - PANIC signs - I saw one "for sale by owner" that said "must sell" will carry mortgage, "no downpayment". . .hmmm in other words, he wants YOU to take over his inflated ARM.
"There's no possible way prices fell that much in one month," said Chris Thornberg, a senior economist at the University of California, Los Angeles Anderson Forecast. "It's just not possible."
If you would have told an economist that home prices would have doubled or tripled in 5 years, he too wouldn't believe you in the 50's, 60's, 70's, or 80's.
The biggest bubble in history, and they are surprised prices can fall like a rock in a month. Just wait until 2007 when the majority of ARMs reset. Its going to be a bloodbath...
San Dieog Condos For All!
"approx how many condos are listed in sandiego? whats approx the population?"
There are currently about 21,000 listing for all properties in San Diego County and about 3 million people in SD County. . .the downtown condo list is very hard to pin down, because there are listing of used condos, and and then all the new construction either on the market or coming on the market. Those new do not show up in the MLS. One realtor who was quoted in a recent article said in the next two years over 12,000 new units will come online. I think this may be a bit high, as I count about 20 active construction sites downtown (and two abandoned). Let's say each averages around 200 units (some are 35 floors, others are only 10 floors) so that would be about 4,000 new units. In any event, the same realtor said only about 1,000 new condos are sold each year downtown, so it would be a 4 year supply. . .See Ziprealty.com and put in San Diego County for up to the minute count.
Condos and condo conversions are proof positive that human beings have a collective memory span of maybe 25 years, and any long-term survival of the human race is highly doubtful.
"Anonymous said...
Condos and condo conversions are proof positive that human beings have a collective memory span of maybe 25 years, and any long-term survival of the human race is highly doubtful."
That is probably the most 'hitting the nail right on the head' statement I have heard in a long while. Couple that with the dumbing down of the former #1
country on the planet. We are truely doomed. If J.C.'s a commin, he better hurry!
Yeh read the article. It's interesting that the article
was pushing the idea that the median price was dropping as a result of the owners of high priced homes pulling their homes off the market. They offer no evidence that this is fact but rather say it COULD explain the drop. So i guess we are top believe that the owners of high priced homes are relatively ignorant of the impending doom as compared to woners of low priced homes. You buying that? Not me. No evidence means no evidence.
Two types of "must sell"
1 - Must sell - just got a great new job in a new city, need to sell house
2 - Must sell - Help!!, the mortgage, insurance and property taxes are killing me and next week I'll be even more upside down on this overpriced pos!!!!
The banking system, freddie mac, fannie mae, PBGC, private pensions soon to default into the PBGC, etc.
Uncle Sam's got the biggest bailout in history coming up very soon, good thing its in such great financial shape that it can handle it.
Post a Comment