Ben at HousingBubble 2. David at Bubblemeter. Cole at the Big Housing Bubble. Patrick at Housing Crash Continues and Patrick.net. SoCalMortgage Guy at Another F*cked Borrower. Yours truly at ol' HP. And many others.
Man, looking back on it, we nailed it. Most of us started our blogs right at the tippy tippy top, Summer of 2005 or so. Some earlier some a bit later. But a key indicator of the housing bubble in the end might have been the very explosion in housing bubble blogs.
I think there was that woosh of new bubble blogs simply because some of us out there saw what was going on and felt compelled to tell others, almost in a Devils Tower / Close Encounters of the Third Kind kinda way. If everything was OK, there wouldn't have been that woosh, and that urgency.
But boy, I remember being ridiculed in the beginning. Phoenix was soaring, nobody was selling, everyone was buying, and anyone I said "housing bubble" to would laugh - it's the new demographics, we're cheap vs. Europe, you live in a house, unlike a stock, housing never ever falls, owning a house is the best investment you can make, etc.
Well, guess what. Anyone who took the bubble blogs advice is now OK. Anyone who didn't is in a bit of trouble.
Thanks all for reading. I hope it's helped in some way. Without the community, it wouldn't be much of an endeavor. I hope you take what you read here and tell others too. There's still much more to come.
June 13, 2006
Memo to the mainstream media: The housing bubble bloggers got it right
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
27 comments:
We wouldn't miss a post. We would have probably bought this past year if we went on what realtors where telling us. We have taken ourselves out of the market for at least 6 months and are thankful we have. Thank you Keith and all.
I bought a condo in Hungary but will keep it regardless. I like being close to Vienna and it is occupied by family who would otherwise be renting.
Other than that I am a renter here in the U.S. Blogs like yours and the experience of living in NJ and watching the activity there convinced me that Real Estate is no longer a good investment.
I may be paying (A PART OF) someones mortgage payment with my rent BUT that person is paying my property tax, homeowners insurance and maintainance cost.
If you take guaranteed appreciation and maybe even the tax benefit (via Bush?) out of the equation, I don't see RE being more than a so so investment.
Give me a high interest rate CD instead.
Thanks Keith. I wasn't in the market for a house (I bought a couple years ago) but blogs like these remind me that I shouldn't tap into my equity, because it may disappear over the next few years.
Also, I never would have bought put options on TOL if I had not visited these blogs. Today I sold my options and made enough to pay for my wedding in September, without having to go into debt. I am extremely grateful for that.
Keith, you've probably saved hundreds of people from making the worst financial decision of their lives. You should be proud of that.
Blogs are WAY ahead of public
One year ago I came to San Diego to look at real estate, and mentioned to a real estate agent that prices were falling. . .he was "speechless" and said . . ."I don't see any sign of that.". . .he is no longer a real estate agent. . .he left the field because he had not had a sale in six months. . .he asked me how I knew a year ago, and I said, "it was all over the internet!"
Thanks Keith, I'm sure you helped people recognize the risk in the current market. They may not thank you but their children should have a happier family life because of your work.
When I felt the market was running out of steam, I sought for insight (July 2005). I found Ben Jones' blog and I was completely convinced of the long term outcome (and prepared and sold my house ASAP).
Good job guys.
I also gained strength from the blogs, when we sold our house at the top and decided to rent. We are still being derided, but much less now. I look forward to some positive comments soon, from the former disbelievers. The listings from our former zip, have gone from 119 when we sold, to 188 now. Prices will be coming down soon.
Keith - Thank you so much for the energy you've invested in your posts.
IMHO - you're blessed with wisdom and advanced insight and a guardian angel who prompted you to share all that with kindness to blog readers. Sharing your thoughts with us gave us greater validation in what is the right thing to do and how to position ourselves for the scary future.
You are great, Keith!
Dear Keith,
I must chime in with Keith Kudos and my short story.
I was using search engines and going over the main stream media daily, starting around Oct 05. Which is when I sold my second “starter home”. My daily News search was with the words “Housing Bubble” and the words “housing crash”, looking and looking for a clue as to what I was witnessing before my eyes over the last five years. A Real Estate Boom in my hometown that was about to price me out of the market (My first estate/home, paid for was a total loss five years ago and is tied up in insurance litigation).
Anyway, I could not find anything in the main stream media discussing what I knew I was seeing or why I was seeing it. Shocking, I might add. Anyway, direction and information was what I wanted.
I have never "Blogged" a day in my life till Google FINALLY brought me here.....my new "news" home whilst I wait out the cycle. Thank you from my formerly terrified heart.
You have helped me see the real world.
Again,
Thanks.
Thanks Keith,
Not only did not invest my hard earned money in Commercial Real estate but I also shorted the home builders thanks to you and Ben's blog.
You saved me a fortune. Now if the fed inflate it away that is a different thing.
Keith, Your blog saved me from a big investment LOSS!!
Sold in Oct 05 and started renting because I believed what you were saying in most of your posts.
Back in sept 05 I actually felt sorry for you because nobody was responding to your posts. hehe.
Times sure have changed since!
I actually became a full time blogger because of all the links from you and your bloggers! I know more about the world then I wanted!
This internet thingy can sure smarten up a person. Thanks for all the links everybody!!
Striker.
Keith a big thanks to you and Patrick in particular for helping me time the market in CA to perfection. I also owe thanks to a guy who posts as ex-texan on free republic, this poor guy has taken a serious beating there for a couple of years now for predicting a housing crash. I saw a commentator treat this guy like a lunatic on CNBC today because he was strong in his belief that a recession is coming this fall. It’s hard to tell people what they don’t want to hear especially when it means people are going to get hurt. It’s like John the Baptist Syndrome. I’ll take the one crying in the wilderness over the MSM anyday! I look forward to your reporting on the recession or maybe the depression.
yeppers - sold 2nd home July 05 - made a feag'n boat load - all went to PMs.
Keith, I have a similar story. I almost signed on an over-appraised condo, I walked after a series of google searches found the bubble world and your blog in particular. That condo is still sitting on the MLS with price reductions.
Thanks Keith
I had been sucked into the sheeple mentality. Most of our friends our age had bought or were planning to buy second homes out of state, and I was scouring the internet on realtor.com looking for our retirement 'heaven'.
Somehow I got sidetracked onto your blog and things changed really fast. Didn't buy, still here for now, some of the same friends are now in serious financial binds. We are still looking for that retirement heaven, but thanks to you and rest of the guys our search won't really begin until the words 'real estate' become really, REALLY bad swear words.
Then we buy, for DIRT CHEAP!
Thanks a million guys!
Folks should leave a comment on the NYT post from December. Time for an update, Damon.
Jerkstore
I remember reading the forum at wsj real estate a couple of years back and it drove me nuts that there was no other place to find out info about the housing bubble. thanks for the bubble blogs. still renting, waiting.
Keith, I think a point that should be stressed here is that this period of repricing RE to reality may take several (perhaps many) years.
I continue to see people talk about waiting 6 months and then buying. In my opinion that would be a painful mistake, as the price adjustment is likely to take numerous years, at the least. In Japan it went on for 14 years.
Accumulate as much cash as possible and WAIT! In the meantime find yourself a terrific rental...there will be many new and near new properties to choose from.
I posted a comment on the NYTimes site, but it was deleted.
What a putz.
From National Treasure (2004)
Agent Hendricks: Uh, there was no file opened. We didn't find the information credible.
Sadusky: How about now?
=================================================
I guess the NYT found it a bit too sharp, what on the heels of pimping WMD, touting the Internet Bubble, and other worthless drivel passing for journalism.
Keith, you rock!
"I think there was that woosh of new bubble blogs simply because some of us out there saw what was going on and felt compelled to tell others"
Exactly. May 24, 2005 was my first post. Keep up the very solid work here at Housing Panic. Thanks!
David
Bubble Meter Blog
Keith,
Thanks for the great blog and the good forums. I have made some very drastic personal changes based on info I found in the blogosphere. Now debt free and accumulating cash and gold.
MSM is toast. The blogs are where the best news and information flow is at. I believe it was the blogs that brought about the Dan Rather demise. Now they have beaten the MSM to the housing / debt story. The MSMs are still doing what they are set up to do - deliver consumers, ready to buy.
confused -
Have patience. Just when there is plenty of despair the market will break open and in two years you will be thinking "I was nuts to to think I could never afford a house....but I don't want it now because we are not yet at the bottom".
I remember thinking I missed out at Yahoo for $250 a share and passing up the chance to purchase for $30 a couple years later.
The Times is censoring entirely appropriate comments once again. Better to R.E. cheerlead to an empty stadium than a derisive one, I guess.
Jerkstore
Even if you sell your home "as is, subject to inspection" � you can do a lot to . A top-notch Realtor� will probably hand you a list of at least a dozen things you can do to help improve your sale. If they don't, well, maybe you need to .
Post a Comment