$6 a gallon gas is not gonna be good for those exburbia tract home developments in Queen Creek, Arizona...
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, supreme leader of the world's fourth largest oil exporter, said on Sunday that if the United States makes a "wrong move" toward Iran, energy flows in the region would be endangered.
Iranian officials have in the past ruled out using oil as a weapon in Iran's nuclear standoff with the West, but Khamenei's comments suggested Iran could disrupt supplies if pushed.
His remarks, which are likely to unsettle wary oil markets, come days before EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana is due to deliver a package of incentives agreed by six world powers and designed to persuade Iran to abandon plans to make nuclear fuel.
"Today our nation has taken a step forward and has bravely resisted," he said. "There is no international consensus against Iran's nuclear program except by some ... monopolist countries and this consensus has no value."
Khamenei spoke from a podium emblazoned with Khomeini's words "America cannot do a damn thing." His speech listed what he said were U.S. failures in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Palestinian territories and elsewhere in the area.
Those gathered chanted back "Death to America" and "Nuclear energy is our obvious right."
June 04, 2006
Iran hints it may use oil weapon in nuclear row
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31 comments:
"$6 a gallon gas is not gonna be good for those exburbia tract home developments in Queen Creek, Arizona..."
Nobody acutally *lives* in Queen Creek, Keith. The place was built so flippers could sell pre-construction and post construction houses to one another. Musical chairs housing is its sole purpose. $6 gas will have less of an impact on QC than adjusting mortgages will
When Bushco attacks Iran, a lot international players will likely take the opportunity to dump the dollar. If nukes are employed, watch for many of our international allies to also be dumping dollars.
So we will have a sudden and severe energy crisis and a collapsing dollar crisis occurring at the same time. Much higher interest rates are likely as we try to defend the dollar.
Hopefully we won't end up in the mother of all recessions.
Keith,
Can you add the 4th Turning to the list of books on your list.
They wrote it in 1997 predicting a 20 year crisis beginning in the mid 2000's. It's a fascinating book about cycles.
They were talking about investing in Gold and foregin currencing back in 1999 before the dollar began to fall.
$6 a gallon gas is not gonna be good for those exburbia tract home developments in Queen Creek, Arizona...
Repetition is not evidence. $6 gas kills the cenurbs sending jobs scurrying to the exurbs not the reverse.
mr. smith said...
"When Bushco attacks Iran, a lot international players will likely take the opportunity to dump the dollar. If nukes are employed, watch for many of our international allies to also be dumping dollars."
How ridiculous. If nukes were used they'd make all the oil worthless, and kill millions throughout the Middle East, not just Iran. Why do people believe in such Chicken-Little nonsense? Bush is not going to attack Iran (remember the Senate and House APPROVED his war with Iraq), though Israel might, and the only people stupid enough to use nukes are Muslim fanatics. If they blow themselves up, good riddance.
The problem is the muslim fanatics will go after non-muslim states in the area. They will hit Israel or US forces in Iraq.
The oil facilties would be offline for a way, but most of the crude is underground and not effected by Nuclear weapons. But the area would be hazardous for many years making it difficult to rebuild the facilities...
Does the government have a "play book" of manipulations to keep the majority of people in month to month poverty so they will show up to their slave jobs ad nauseum?
I seem to remember a few of the plays we are seeing from the early 70's and 80's.
Too many Americans are uninformed, untraveled, and lack standards for gauging ethics or morality. Their opinions on matters like Iran are easily swayed and manipoulated by the media and politicians on both sides.
The Iranians know this and are using clever techniques to achieve their long-term strategic goals. Most Americans will sit by dumb and happy until we are forced into WWIII. The fire is still small, but we are pretending it won't affect us, so we'll just ignore it for now...
Technical note:
It is possible for realtors to cut commission at the closing table to make a deal happen. I've seen it done when the seller can't reduce in price any more due to negitive equity; and the buy can't qualify for any more loan.
Sometime, and especially when the realtor's are starving, they will cut commission, just to make a deal and get paid something.
But there is a limit to this.
In Zinger's Example above, I would say that the lowest net offer that could be closed with cut fees would be $485K.
So, I agree with Zinger that once market values fall below a certian point, forclosure results upon such sellers.
In the application for Pointy-Headed Boss Award of the Year, Hewlett Packard just banned telecommuting.
Everybody will now have to come into the office or be fired, without severance pay. (This is not a joke).
Oh, and they closed many of their office locations to cut costs so you'll be commuting even farther in Bay Area jams.
This policy does not apply to executives or management, just technical workers.
If nukes are employed, watch for many of our international allies to also be dumping dollars.
If nukes are used, I don't think the value of dollar is too important anymore. There are much bigger problems then.
Iran must import gasoline so I think the sanctions hurt Iran much more than us. There are already violent riots and demonstrations across the country (suppressed by local Hezbollah troops by force).
One astute investor I know purchased BP Royalty Trusts (BPT) for his children's accounts with the selection of GWB in 2000, and added to their positions in 2004. Check out the weekly action since 2000 and the dividend payout. It's probably fully priced now,
How ridiculous. If nukes were used they'd make all the oil worthless, and kill millions throughout the Middle East, not just Iran. Why do people believe in such Chicken-Little nonsense?
No, Bushco is not planning to nuke the Iranian civilian population. They are seriously considering the use of nuclear bunker busters because it is unlikely that conventional bunker weapons can destroy the deeply buried nuclear facilities. These weapons are down-sized in yield but will still send massive columns of radioactive earth/dust far downwind.
The arguments about nuclear bunker busters and the associated funding issues have been going on in the US for years.....doh.
Oil and gas that is 8,000 feet deep in the earth will not be affected by the use of such weapons. Except that the Iranians will shut down all energy exports and create a bigger oil shock than those of the 70s. The Europeans will surely love having their economies collapsed so that W can play messiah in Iran.
Yes, it hurts especially Europe but oil embargo or sanctions hurt Iran even more. They must import gasoline and their economy is already near collapse. Iranian regime must be careful not to antagonise local population..They already hate mullahs and economic collapse might be the final sparkle that starts the revolution.
Sellers with negative equity will still be able to sell. Their agents (or the homeowner) must be able to negociate with the lender. They will have a short sale ready to go into escrow.
The lender would rather have a reasonable short sale than to go through foreclosure.
This has already started to happen in Phoenix, and it will become more widespread.
Iran has been preparing for not importing gasoline for more than a year now. Lawmakers passed a law quite some time ago that as of September this year, gasoline would be rationed to the public at levels equal to current domestic production - i.e. they will no longer need imports.
Oh, and the Fourth Turning is one of the greatest books ever written, altho it seems to get zero respect from anyone other than a few very wise people.
The book PREDICTED 911 almost 4 years in advance, it also predicts a prolonged period of hardship for the American people - just like we are beginning to see happen.
Very very smart, perceptive guys.
Iran has been preparing for not importing gasoline for more than a year now.
This is nonsense and bogus information. They have to import 35% of their gasoline for current level of domestic consumption. Of course, they can use rationing and force people to consume only certain amount of gasoline but it means that economy slows considerably and people are even more angry and willing to confort the mullah regime.
Similarly, I can argue that we don't need oil. We just pass a law saying that we don't import any oil.
people are even more angry and willing to confort the mullah regime.
Iranians were getting tired of the mullahs and desiring more western culture....until genius George started all the axis of evil talk.
Now they are resolving differences and standing tall against the "great satan". Thanks George.
Actually, Iranians are very supportive of US. Iran is probably the only country in the world in which job approval for GWB is >50%.
I see you hate GWB and see world differently.
Student riots at major Iranian campuses are growing every day even though Hezbollah is clamping them down with force. Of course, you cannot find that information from MSM.
Great to know that not all students are america-hating idiots (like in most US campuses).
"$6 gas kills the cenurbs sending jobs scurrying to the exurbs not the reverse."
That's already happening in my area. Big new office buildings are going up all around the exurbs. We have new sports fields and stadiums, new shopping malls, restaurants, theaters, even a new museum. Apparently businesses like cheap land, low taxes and an availability of cheap housing for their meagerly compensated employees.
Yes wise people do recommend it.
I heard about it first from Tony Robbins in 1998 and thought that Tony was becoming a little negative. After picking up the book a year ago realize that Tony saw something brilliant in the book as he really understands the patterns of people.
"Iran hints it may use oil weapon in nuclear row"
"US hints it may use nuclear weapon in oil row"
oy vey.
I am by far in the banking industry, but have to ask this question?
If the banking industry is seeing major forclosers due to theses fancy mortgages ARMS IO'S and such, why are they not taking steps to ensure that the home owner can cover their payments when thses mortgages start to ajust.
Yes I know and i am all for personal responsibility for sure, you should have known what you were signing.
But as an example friends of ours sold their house to a cambodian couple for $353,000 (sick) no money down and my friends walked away with $225,000 in cash, here it is a year down the road and this very nice home sits abandon, as it was forclosed on and bought by the banks for $295,000.
THEY NEVER MADE ONE PAYMENT!!!!!!
The had an ARMIO and must have realized shit we need to get the heck out of dodge, and walked away.
so my point is why dont the banks contact these owners of these shitty mortages and offer to refi to say a 40 or 50 year mortgage, just to not only protect the home owner but to protect the banks investment.
Weather value is there or not..half of an investment is better than a nice house sitting there unlived in for a year.
unrealistic yes but hey you never know.
Iran's Nuclear Ambition Hits Piggy Banks
Residents ship savings elsewhere
By Iason Athanasiadis, The Washington Times
TEHRAN -- Threats of an international financial squeeze stemming from the showdown over Iran's nuclear program have sent Iranians scrambling to get their savings out of the country, or if that won't work, to convert them into gold.
An estimated $200 billion has left the country since last year's election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president, accompanied by panic buying of gold. The Iranian stock exchange lost an estimated 20 percent of its value even as other bourses in the region rose.
"The most tangible effect of the threat of sanctions in the private sector is downsizing," said Farhad Sanadizadeh, a Tehran-based oil and gas consultant who has let 40 employees go in the past six months. "A lot of companies are not hiring new people and reducing their work force."
Last week, it was disclosed that most European banks are no longer facilitating money transfers from Iranian banks. Iran has already removed most of its capital from European banks, according to press reports, fearing a possible assets freeze.
Iran says it has a right to generate atomic energy and insists its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes, but the United States and most of its allies think it has a covert weapons program.
The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany, meeting in Vienna, Austria, on Thursday, offered Tehran incentives in return for ending its nuclear program. Washington has offered to join direct negotiations with Tehran if it halts enrichment of uranium that could be used in weapons production.
Iranian officials have not responded directly to the offer, but Iran's top leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reiterated in a nationally televised speech yesterday that Iran will not give up its right to produce nuclear fuel.
"If you make any mistake, definitely shipment of energy from this region will be seriously jeopardized. You have to know this," he added in what was seen as a warning to Washington against military action.
The United States is pushing for U.N. sanctions if Tehran fails to comply with the Security Council demands. Amid the escalating tension, prices of basic and imported goods are rising in Iran.
Iran's high inflation, estimated at 12 percent, coupled with the effect of sanctions fever has made cooking oil and wheat more expensive since the Persian New Year on March 21.
Hossein Mohammadi, a 24-year old refugee from Afghanistan, cleans houses in the Iranian capital for a living after leaving his war-ravaged homeland for the stability of its western neighbor.
These days, walking through the late afternoon crowds of families and young people flocking onto the tree-covered boulevards of north Tehran, he worries increasingly about sanctions being imposed on his adopted homeland.
"The lady I work for has already sold her Peugeot 206 [an expensive, French car assembled in Iran] because she says that if there was an economic embargo, gasoline and spare parts will become so expensive that it'll just sit in the garage and rust," he said.
Many Iranians also remain defiant in the face of looming sanctions. Some argued that shortages were a way of life during the 1980s, when the eight-year Iran-Iraq war led to Iran's international isolation and a rationing regime.
The announcement in April that Iran has mastered the nuclear cycle played to nationalist sentiments, making many Iranians feel their country has attained a level of technological sophistication that allows it to take its place alongside the West's advanced nation-states.
However, not all Iranians support the nuclear program. There is a significant silent minority who say that, although it is their country's right to generate nuclear energy under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it could come at a high cost.
"Stage by stage [the sanctions process] is starting, and it's all the fault of Ahmadinejad for insisting on us having a nuclear program," said Hamid Abedi, a 45-year-old furniture repairman who supplements his income by driving around in search of fares in the evenings.
"What's the point of us having nuclear energy if we're deprived of everything else?"
"anon 3:31": Did your friends got their $353k ?
I'm just trying to understand if there are risks in selling as well. My impression is that the seller always get the money in cash and it is up to the bank to hope the buyer pays it.
"$6 gas kills the cenurbs sending jobs scurrying to the exurbs not the reverse."
That's already happening in my area. Big new office buildings are going up all around the exurbs. We have new sports fields and stadiums, new shopping malls, restaurants, theaters, even a new museum. Apparently businesses like cheap land, low taxes and an availability of cheap housing for their meagerly compensated employees.
The top three reasons in order of importance for corporate relocation decisions: where the CEO lives, where the CEO lives, and where the CEO lives. Keith and other prourbanists refuse to understand the near century long (evidenced in 1910 census) of the urban diaspora. People do not want to live and work and play in the cities. People want mobility and benefit from it. People don't like congestion and/or crime and density. The successful cities are those that are accommodating those stated and revealed preferences.
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