June 06, 2006
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
skip to main |
skip to sidebar
A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
About Me
HP blogs & websites
- AmericaPANIC
- Angry Bear
- Angry Renter
- Bank Implode-O-Meter
- Big Picture
- Blown Mortgage
- boom 2 bust
- Bubble Blog News
- Bubble Markets
- Bubble Meter
- BusinessWeek Hot Property
- Calculated Risk
- Case Shiller Graphs
- Charles Smith
- CNBC Realty Check
- Contrarian Chronicles
- Countrywide Foreclosures
- Deflationland
- Denninger Market Ticker
- Dirty Scottsdale
- Dollar collapse
- Dr. Housing Bubble
- Drudge Report
- Fed Up USA Protest
- Financial Sense
- firedoglake
- Flippers in Trouble
- Foreclosure Data
- Gawker
- Gold equals money blog
- Gold Prices
- High Probability kid
- homegain blog
- Housebubble blog
- Housing Blog Recap
- Housing Bubble Bust
- housing bubble hall of shame
- Housing Doom
- Housing Fear
- Housing Tracker
- Housing Watch Price Tracker
- Housing Wire
- I Can't Sell My House
- Infectious Greed
- Inventory Overload (realtor)
- Irvine housing blog
- itulip
- J-walk blog
- Kitco
- Kunstler
- LA Times Bubble Blog
- LA Westside Bubble
- Lasner on Real Estate (OC)
- Lawrence Yun Watch
- Long Island Bubble
- Marin Bubble
- Media - BusinessWeek
- Media - Financial Times
- Media - New York Times
- Media - News Hounds
- Media - Olbermann Blog
- Media - TV Newser
- Media - Wall Street Journal
- Media Matters
- millionaire mommy
- Mish's Global Economic
- ML Implode-o-Meter
- Moneyfiles Bubble Blog
- Mortgage Fraud Blog
- Mortgage Insider
- Mortgage Ledger
- mortgagefit portal
- My Two Cents Blog
- National Mortgage News
- News: Reddit
- Northern New Jersey Bubble Blog
- NYC bubble
- Paper Economy Blog
- Paranoid Ben's boring blog
- Patrick.net
- PeakOil - Life After the oil crash
- Phoenix Flippers in Trouble
- Piggington
- PIMCO Bill Gross
- Politics - C-Span Videos
- Politics - Dick Morris
- Politics - First Read
- Politics - FreeRepublic GOP Talking Points
- Politics - Huffington
- Politics - Kos
- Politics - Malkin
- Politics - National Journal
- Politics - Politico
- Politics - PoliticsTV.com
- Politics - realclearpolitics.com
- Politics - RedState GOP Talking Points
- Politics - The Note
- Politics - TPM Cafe
- Portland Oregon Bubble
- Prudent Investor
- Ramen Recipes for Realtors
- rancid truth
- Real Clear Politics
- Real Estate & Housing Outlook
- Real Estate Bloggers
- Real Estate Decline
- Redfin.com
- Republicans Are Assholes
- Sacramento Landing
- Scottsdale Sucks
- Seattle Housing Blog
- SlackerRevolution
- SoCal Bubble
- Soot & Ashes - New from HousingPANIC
- Speculative Bubble
- Stocks - Blogging Stocks
- Stocks - Bob Brinker
- Stocks - Cramer Mad Money Videos
- Stocks - DealBreaker
- Stocks - Denninger
- Stocks - Financial Times
- Stocks - Forex expert
- Stocks - I Bank Coin
- Stocks - Market Ticker
- Stocks - Money Week
- Stocks - Motley Fool Caps
- Stocks - Option Addict
- Stocks - Options Trader
- Stocks - Portfolio.com
- Stocks - RealClearMarkets
- Stocks - Seeking Alpha
- Stocks - TheStreet.com
- Stop the Mortgage Bailout
- the greenspan mess
- The Superficial
- Trulia
- Truth about mortgage blog
- UK House Bubble
- Video - Blip Radical TV
- Video - BrassCheckTV
- Video - Countdown
- Video - Fox Business
- Video - Movietone News
- Video - NBC News
- Video: Bloomberg Live
- Video: BNN Bubble News
- Video: C-span Junkie
- Video: CNN Live
- Video: Crooks and Liars
- Video: Daily Show
- Video: Housing Crash TV
- Video: Jim Cramer
- Video: MSNBC
- Video: PBS Frontline
- Video: Peter Schiff EuroPacific
- Video: Politics Videos
- Video: Presidential Debates
- Video: TPMTV
- Vigilant Investor
- Voice of San Diego
- What Bubble?
- Wiki US Bubble
- Zillow.com
- zz HP Mandatory Terms of Use
Blog Archive
- February 2022 (1)
- August 2018 (1)
- November 2016 (1)
- June 2013 (1)
- December 2010 (1)
- November 2008 (22)
- October 2008 (155)
- September 2008 (164)
- August 2008 (141)
- July 2008 (108)
- June 2008 (129)
- May 2008 (128)
- April 2008 (161)
- March 2008 (198)
- February 2008 (168)
- January 2008 (190)
- December 2007 (151)
- November 2007 (132)
- October 2007 (146)
- September 2007 (157)
- August 2007 (143)
- July 2007 (163)
- June 2007 (147)
- May 2007 (153)
- April 2007 (135)
- March 2007 (118)
- February 2007 (147)
- January 2007 (138)
- December 2006 (157)
- November 2006 (154)
- October 2006 (193)
- September 2006 (199)
- August 2006 (182)
- July 2006 (184)
- June 2006 (140)
- May 2006 (200)
- April 2006 (166)
- March 2006 (154)
- February 2006 (105)
- January 2006 (74)
- December 2005 (119)
- November 2005 (132)
22 comments:
Looks like the US consuming public about to encounter reality...except that the fat guy is coming down on concrete instead of water.
Much like the fat guy from the picture, real estate prices here in the NYC area are still sky high.
The fat guy is the U.S. economy. His equally bloated friends in Brussels, Tokyo, and Beijing are stretching a net as we speak to avert the disaster. They have to save him because if their portly friend dies, they'll have to jump too.
If you think the mortgage scene is weird now, just wait six months. They're going to roll out incentives and "creative financing" instruments never before seen on this planet. I think the Fed is going to bring long-term rates down to 4% even if it means a 20%-30% fall in the dollar. They HAVE to do it, and they will.
Lereah has some competition in the spin and lies department and he goes by the name Lawrence Yun. Anyone heard of this guy? I guess spinning is out the window, and now it's just down to blatant lying by these scum.
In the latest "all is well" LVRJ (Las Vegas newspaper) article, this "other" NAR enconomist lends a hand to providing quotes for the MSM. Among his quotes: the current inventory levels are "normal", homes are selling twice as fast (52 days vs. 90 days).
I disagree with Anon, the Fed won't allow a 30% devaluation of the dollar. I think Bernanke has made it clear that keeping inflation in check is the Fed's primary responsibility. Expect to see 15% rate mortgages! This fat guy is wearing a tag that says "DO NOT RESUSCITATE!"
Thinker -- the Fed can't administer the bitter medicine because at this point it will kill the patient and send the global economy into depression. Politicians will put up with almost anything if it avoids insurrection and voter alienation. Bankers will DO almost anything if they are guaranteed (wink-wink, nod) a cut of the action.
Get ready for the BIG FIX.
Bernanke looks like he wants to put fear into the markets. I bet he'd like to push all that money into banks so he can use it to prop up the dollar
I think the Fed is going to bring long-term rates down to 4% even if it means a 20%-30% fall in the dollar. They HAVE to do it, and they will.
Some people are a bit mixed up on this point....the Fed does not control long-term interest rates. It has some control over short-term rates but long rates are set by the markets.
And what is this about the Fed being able to prevent a massive decline in the dollar? The US has so much debt at all levels that we are losing control of our own destiny- and there will soon be little the Fed or the US Gubbermint can do about it.
Get used to it.
Exactly right, the Fed alone does not control long-term rates. But the major central banks, acting in concert, can and WILL manage the rates to avoid a meltdown in U.S. housing. None of them want a crisis, and the fix will involve a measured devaluation of the dollar. Gold and oil are going up 30% as a result, and a lot of RE speculators will be on the floor in pools of blood. But the McMansion owners and Joe Average will be able to get out of their ARMs into 50 or 75 year fixed rate mortgages.
I've seen $100,000 declines in a year in San Diego.
Looks like Tempe has 50% reductions to auction off some monstrosities they call condos (*ONLY* $500000 to live in a tin box).
I saw this interesting story posted on the YAHOO message board for FNM (msg 211325):
This is from a recent post to Bill Fleckenstein's web site.
"Just talked to a California appraiser.
She says she has never had anything like the pressure she is under now to raise appraisals.
There are many home owners that are trying to make one more withdrawal from the refi-ATM to extend their lifestyles another 6 months or a year. And housing appraisals are falling.
She doesn't want to lose her license, but the realtors, mortgage brokers, and even loan officers are desperate to keep the money flowing so they can keep their commission checks coming in.
This process is nearly at an end. But people that have been living above their means by tapping their house equity every year or so and like drug junkies, they need one more fix so bad that it doesn't matter if interest rates have gone up or not. But at some point, the equity is all gone, and the music stops.
My gut feeling is that the construction/real estate/new home/mortgage business is hanging together by a slender thread and it wouldn't surprise me to see some real negative consequences of over borrowing and over buying impacting the broader economy soon.
She is starting to wonder what her next job will be. "
I'm afraid for anybody who stays long in this mkt., it's going to be selling apples.
This sell-off IS NOT a buying opportunity. It's just the beginning of the really bad news.
Soft landing? It doesn't look like it. Why is gold dropping?
Gold is dropping because Bernanke is serious (at least this month) about raising interest rates.
What did you expect? Interest rates don't matter?
My feeling is that Bernanke is going to manage based on domestic inflation only, and to hell with the dollar.
Remember that the dollar had declined something like 40 to 50% between 83 and 85 or something like that, as the US came out of the super-high Volker rates and a nasty recession.
It was the start of generation long bull market---after the recession is over.
Maybe that will be the pattern again: the dollar was stay as it is for longer than people think, because Bernanke is going to squeeze you. Then, and only then, when he stops will the dollar be let go.
gotta love the staging job on the kitchen table of this place...I can imagine the fine cuisine that I would be eating in that kitchen
Interesting story on the housing market on CNBC...can't remember the journalist's first name but her last name was Glick.
Using IMF as her source, she said that for every $1 increase in home equity, homeowners have spent anywhere from 10-15 cents in response to that increase. For example, if somebody's equity went up $100,000, you can expect that on average, the homeowner spent at least $10,000 because of the wealth effect that comes along with increased equity.
Another interesting fact she mentioned is that people feel a stronger wealth effect from housing increases than from stock increases, and the opposite is also true. She said that for every $1 in stock portfolio decline, consumer spend 4 cents less on average. However, for every $1 decrease in home equity, consumers spend 7 cents less on average.
I don't know how many existing homes were out there in 2005, but if you take the average equity increase nationwide and take 10% of that, and then consider that the nationwide increase this year will be minimal, flat, or even down, how much consumer spending does that erase from the economy in 2006? I bet it has to be at least $50 billion, maybe even $100 billion or more.
Locally, higher priced areas have owners heading for the exits. Worst I saw lately was Waikiki this weekend. Took the bus to the beach. On Kuhio, there were 1,2,3 open house signs on almost every street corner.
Holy condotel, Batman!
Ya gotta love those desparate realt-whores. MSNBC has an article about the 'softening' real estate market. REIC is, get this, asking:
"...the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates because parts of the housing market are “vulnerable.”"
Anything to keep the 6% commissions coming in and the housing ponzi scheme going.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13170491/
David Lereah Realtor-Speak to English dictionary
When David says:
'this is a time for the Fed to pause on rate hikes because we have some interest-sensitive housing markets that have become vulnerable,"
In English it means:
Help!!! There's a lot of poor bastards out there up to their assholes in ARMs and the whole thing's gonna come down like a house of cards and this if you stop this shell game ponzi scheme right now.
Thinker - have a look at curbed.com. Apparently there are some issues unloading some of the Bazillion condos going up around the five boroughs. But those bastards at Corcoran are still beating the "Luxury Market Remains Strong" drum.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/05/real_estate/million_dollar_NL_homes/index.htm
Soon they will all be laying awake at night and I find solace in that.
congratulations
Not that the investors are making money. But the home builders still are.
Dare I dream of growth again in 2007
Lawrence Yun is the biggest scum bag on the planet. He had a 5 minute interview last Fall with a local TV broadcast here in Seattle where he sqirmed in his seat , eyes averted , saying appreciation in Seattle would be 30-40 % (Yes! 30-40!) over the next 2 years.
Snivelling and sniving, he said "I wish *I* had the money to buy a house in Seattle so I could take advantage of the appreciation".
Ha! guess the NAR doesn't pay their economists enough. At 40%, you'd think he'd move heaven and earth. Or how about a creative loan if that's the best you can do?
BUT! He chose to pass on the Golden Opportunity.
Hey Fellow, you have a top-notch blog here!
If you have a moment, please have a look at my bad car credit loan refinancing site.
Good luck!
Hey Fellow, you have a top-notch blog here!
If you have a moment, please have a look at my bad car credit loan refinancing site.
Good luck!
Post a Comment