Harvard: Housing boom will not end in a crash. HousingPanic: Housing boom will indeed end in crash, Harvard sucks

OK, blame me a bit because I graduated from Michigan - and we think we're a little smarter than our blue blood friends at snooty Harvard.

It all depends on the definition of "crash". When prices decline 20%, 30% or more, heck, to the guy who bought at $600,000 and sold for $400,000, that's a crash. That's a horrific, life-changing personal economic event. Call it a crash.

And I'd tell Harvard brainiacs to visit Miami, San Diego, Phoenix, Vegas and heck, drive down the streets of Boston. The crash is already here.

Markets seldom disappoint both bulls and bears for long. But over the coming years the US housing market looks likely to do just that, according to a study by Harvard University.

After the slump of the early 1990s and the surge of the past five years, the housing market might prove an anti-climax to all concerned. The long period of stagnation forecast by the survey would disappoint home-owners who expect big price rises but also those who missed the boat and have been hoping for a crash.

"Although housing prices are stretched, it is hard to see the catalyst for a crisis in the market," says Nicolas Retsinas, director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard. "The overvaluation looks pretty well balanced by longer term supports for house prices, so we may just see a few years with little action. Houses will revert to being something to live in rather than money makers."

The Harvard study concedes that even a slowing housing market could take a heavy toll on growth, as Americans become less able to use their houses as ATM machines and less employment is created by homebuilding. Provided the slowdown is gradual, as Harvard expects, this could help rebalance the US economy, reducing demand for imports and so stemming the growth of the trade deficit.