June 19, 2006

Gonna be in France for a couple of days - chat away!

Man, you get away from the internet, newspapers and TV for a few days and you forget all about this little thing called the Housing Bubble.

Then I'll be walking down a street in Paris and see a flat for sale for 800,000 Euros, and remember our little friend is alive and well

Chat away - I'll be back Wednesday night... Market tanking again? Oh, FYI, I picked up puts in SOLD on Friday - they're gonna get KILLED by Zillow.com

Cheers

21 comments:

Already sold SOLD said...

Keith....another example of your too late investing philosophy.

Zillow came out the end of January....at that time SOLD was at 17. Over the next two months, SOLD goes from 17 to below 8. Today the stock is at 8......now you are getting in???

If you knew Zillow was going to kill SOLD, then you should have acted when Zillow launched.

Anonymous said...

F.. u leave Keith alone you shill

Any Mouse Fence sitter said...

Keith! Too big of a housing bubble news day to take off. Hard landing is the main topic of discussion for the talking heads on CNBC. They are admitting that housing is and will continue to drag down the market. By late summer they will be calling it a huge crash.

Glad my cards are off the table. For those holding out for better times ahead you better plan on a decade of waiting.

Anonymous said...

France welcomes with open arms it's newest socialist. Keith!

Anonymous said...

Am I being too optimistic about the property I own in Hungary. I am thinking that the Hungarian currency, the Forint, will continue to fall before the Euro takes over next year, and that my condo loan will get cheaper as it does.

I also think that given the proximity to Vienna this property has long term value.

or should I just try to sell it?

Anonymous said...

Don't jump from the tower :-)

Anonymous said...

Keith Run..they are after your money...run run.

ecobuilder said...

http://tinyurl.com/z9ka8
Keith, you're gonna like that:

She's reading your blog!!!!

How low will it go?
Home prices may dip 10% as fear grips Valley market

Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Jun. 18, 2006 12:00 AM

Greed drove metropolitan Phoenix's home prices and sales to new records in 2005. Fear is driving the market this year.

Home buyers are worried about paying too much and are waiting to purchase. Concerned about dropping home values, some owners are trying to cash out. Builders, struggling to sell even deeply discounted new homes, are scaling back production and warning of lower profits. Each day more people, from contractors and mortgage firms to real estate agents, are losing jobs or money in the metropolitan Phoenix's rapidly slowing real estate market.

foxwoodlief said...

Anonymous optomistic? Don't you know most buyers in the old eastern bloc are speculators? So have you joined the international bubble makers? You buy for a sound investment or a house to live not to speculate. If you bought because you want to live in Hungary or bought at a great price and can rent it out with a positive cash flow to HUNGARIANS on their incomes then you have a sound investment to hold.

Anonymous said...

Found this on the website for a local Mortgage Broker:

"Isn't the Housing Bubble going to pop?"

The truth of the matter is there is no Housing Bubble. This is just another tactic the media uses to get consumers to be afraid. They have been saying for the last 4 years the bubble will burst and now they are headed into a 5th year of advertising incorrect information. The Housing Market is not tied into the interest rates. It is related to the job market. Currently, all 50 states are showing a positive job growth and will continue for 2006. The current unemployment rate in the US is 5%, 3% of this is static unemployment, which is people changing jobs. This means that 98% of people living in the United States can find work. The number one asset that people with jobs will purchase is a home. Don't be fooled by the media and continue to lose thousands of dollars each year from renting. Purchase your dream home today with First Ohio Banc & Lending.

Anyone who cares to discuss the non-existance of the bubble further, or the fuzzy numbers he argues with can do so at:

TIMBRADACH@FIRSTOHIOBANCLENDING.COM

Enjoy!

awaiting bubble rubble said...

Kieth,

Let me know if you see signs of building inventory in Paris. I have a vested interest and when I was there last June I calculated the cost to rent/own ratio at about 64%, probably a bubble but nothing close to the 35% ratio in Los Angeles. Let us know if you see a lot of vacant inventory with for sale signs in Paris, ok?

Anonymous said...

Yeah, the market is going down but as the AZ Republic said, how low will it go--I've seen projections for the next five years: we're looking at around 50,000 permits as things level out. That is still a 'healthy' market (a la 2004) but the emotional/human impact of the job losses from the leveling out (or bursting) is already being felt. As someone reasonably high up in the RE industry, I'm just wondering what the aftermath will look like. Right now, everyone is 'figuring things out' and there is a definite survivor mentality on this side of the fence.

Anonymous said...

It will go lower than 2004, at least 2001, maybe 1995(crash).

keith said...

SOLD when I put my put on on Friday: $9.01.

SOLD yesterday: $7.40

Yup, that's a stupid trade, already sold.

Not.

Cha ching.

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