June 16, 2006

FLASH: David Lereah says something honest - prices to fall, then predicts "hordes of buyers"


Anyone check the temperature readings in hell today?

He said the first slightly honest thing I've ever heard him say, that prices are gonna fall. But 10% to 15%? Try 30% to 60% Mr. Lereah.

He then followed it up by the same smarmy stuff - saying he's gonna buy some investment property in Florida, and that hordes of buyers will descend on Florida. Yeah, right.

By the way, it's bad enough he's corrupted by his paycheck from the NAR, but I'd also hope people know he pumps the bubble because he has housing investments himself. CNBC now has to disclose analyst and broker conflicts of interest. The media should do the same for the corrupt David Lereah.

Thanks David at DavidLereahWatch for the link

The housing standoff between buyers and sellers in South Florida will continue for another six months, and then prices in some areas will fall, a real estate trade group economist predicted Tuesday.

In some cases prices may fall by 10 percent to 15 percent, said David Lereah, the National Association of Realtors' chief economist, who spoke Tuesday in Coral Gables. But in many areas prices will still rise modestly this year, by 4 percent to 5 percent, he said. And when sellers finally bring asking prices down, pent-up demand will likely result in hordes of new buyers in South Florida.

The long-expected shakeout of the real estate market now underway is healthy for a region both overbuilt with new condominiums and overrun by speculators, Lereah said. Unlike in previous real estate downturns, the economic and demographic fundamentals underpinning South Florida real estate remain strong, he added.

So strong, in fact, that the Washington, D.C.-based economist is looking to buy some investment properties here himself.

43 comments:

cereal said...

our little buddy has 4 properties, all in the dc area

Anonymous said...

Dave,
All I need is money. Please send some, oh and a gas card.
Love, Binky

Anonymous said...

probably accurate.

Joe Logic said...

Maybe he read all those bad reviews for his book "Why Housing Will Not Bust" on Amazon.

David said...

"CNBC now has to disclose analyst and broker conflicts of interest. The media should do the same for the corrupt David Lereah."

Thats right!

FL_Bust said...

hordes of new buyers

my ass ... a 10-15% price drop will bring the mortgage payments down by the same amount .. no one's holding back for lousy 10-15% ..

insurance in FL almost doubled .. taxes are higher ..

try 30-40% ..

boomer/bubblesitter/renteretc said...

There is not one private insurance company writing the 40 thousand new homeowners policies. They all left the state. The new businesses can not get wind insurance and they are leaving too. There was a 1.5 Billion dollar Home Insurance reserve and it is all gone. The only company that writing new home owners insurance in Florida is Citizens, which is the Government's Insurance of last resort. People are loosing their homes because they can not get or afford Homeowners Insurance.

Also, I have been watching the prices of a condo downtown Orlando (tax records and MLS listings).
Last year 2 sold for $150,000.00. This year 3 sold for 275,000.00.
This year the rest were priced from between $281,000.00 and $289,000.00. Yesterday they reduced them to the high 240's.

Sucks for the new owners that bought a peak bubble prices.

Anonymous said...

It would be a lot easier for Lereah to just come out and admit the market has changed. Making small admissions and covering the truth, it makes him look more like a huge sneak and liar. Mistakes are one thing, deceit is quite another.

stocksystm said...

This from Jim Cramer at thestreet.com:

"Cramer said homebuilders like KB Homes (KBH:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) are cheap enough that their downside risk is minimal, while the upside is huge. "Any pause from the Fed, and this will be the coiled spring of the market and the stocks will take off," Cramer said. "I don't see these companies going down to two times earnings."

It's unbelievable that Cramer can be so dumb. If the earnings collapse, the P/E will skyrocket even while the stock price plummets.

Anonymous said...

I'm sure that more than one member of the lumpen public has said "housing will go down when (refer to sign to finish sentence)"

me said...

I'm sure that more than one member of the lumpen public has said "housing will go down when (refer to sign to finish sentence)"


lumpen?? (rough around the edges?)

What is you point?

me said...

What is your point? rather

Anonymous said...

If David Liar is saying 10-15% then I would expect 40-60% min.

FL_Bust said...

I'd rather watch a moneky than Cramer on Mad Screaming Ediot ..

Anonymous said...

Lereah knows the truth, but he wants to squeeze every last cent out of this cycle.

Anonymous said...

SHORT CRAMER. Make a ton of money.

bubblesitter/renter/etc said...

Sucks for the new owners that bought a peak bubble prices.

My rental burned up over the weekend, car fire. I am going to offer this developer 150,000 today.

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