June 24, 2006

Don't look at the home's price - ONLY look at what the monthly payment is



Yes, there truly is a sucker born every minute. Around the world, the financially ignorant masses could care less what the home's price is - they only care if they can afford the (current) monthly payment - on the house, on the Lexus, or on that new furniture set.

Here's a website (thanks JohnFC) that perfectly illustrates this stupidity - all the houses featured show only the monthly payment - an NOT the price. But hey, who cares about the price, even if it's plummeting. It's the monthly payment that matters!

Plus they've got a really cool logo - so trustworthy and prestigious, those guys at Presidents!

125 comments:

traineeinvestor said...

And a really professional looking website as well. Where do I sign up?

It looks like the real estate brokers have learned something from the car dealers and furniture shops who have been selling cars etc for decades using this approach.

Los Angeles Friends In Deed said...

Cal Worthington of Southern California, is probably the king of used car sales and marketing. You can watch some of this archived commercial and see hi "dog spot" at this link.

I don't know how many cars he sold, but he seemed to dominate cheesy late nite TV for years with his commercials.

Bake McBride said...

* All financing provided by Great Southwest Mortgage. All payments are based on 5% down of the listed sales price. None of the payments include any monies for Taxes, Insurance, or Principal.

panicearly said...

OT but talking about things presidential,
BUSH ISSUES 'PRIVATE PROPERTY' EXECUTIVE ORDER...june 23, 2006
http://tinyurl.com/g3egx

why now? hmm
these bastards are up to something,
read the whole thing, it seems that they are not actually strengthening property rights, just the right of the gov. to take private property for just about any purpose they deem "benefits" the public.
the exclusions are 3 times longer than the executive order.

Bake McBride said...

Panicearly:
It is a message to the Court that Bush thinks they messed up and now that he has 2 more conservative judges on the Court they should probably review the next case available to address the issue--hopefully to reverse Kelo.

It's also a message to local and state politicians they had better not abuse Kelo if they expect help from the Federal government.

Anonymous said...

Yes, the car dealers were on this game for a long time. I bought a used Corvette when younger and showed up with a calculator, interest rate amortization tables, and the Edmunds and Kelly books. They didn't like me at all...

Kept harping on the payment, which I back calculated to be 21% interest. Their trick was to make it a "lease", with zero balance on the end (the residual was one montly payment at the end, adding one month to the term). This way they got around the interest rate laws in my state...

Needless to say, I went to a cash deal, and got my own bank financing with a nice fixed 3 yr loan at 11% at the time (good for those days of 13% mtg's)

The big problem for house buyers of these deals is that the payment is for an ARM with interest only. At least the slimey car deals had a fixed payment over the life of the loan, and in the end you still owned the car, even though its value is less ;-(

So "payment mentality" may be OK with a fixed rate loan that pays down the principle. At least they will tread water for a while and just be at risk of the property market, and not just interest rate markets.

Mark in San Diego said...

Creative minds are working overtime at mortgage companies. . .

I observed a few months ago that the bubble may continue for a while longer than we thought if creative mortgages are used. . .40 year, 50 year, pay something - pay ANTHING . . .to keep this game going. The sure death rattle of the real estate industry. . .but going down kicking and screaming.

Osman said...

I agree "payment mentality" is a horrible problem. It's been around a long time and isn't going away. However, is the problem really the sellers (and their agents)?

I don't think so. The problem is much larger and endemic. It's closely related to the widespread sense in people of entitlement, a desire to get rich quick, and not work hard for success.

Blaming the car dealers or realtors for leveraging buyer stupidity is like blaming the symptom for the disease. It's not ethical, it's not right, but it's hardly the root of the problem.

Have you ever tried showing "life of the loan" calculations and basic budget 101 concepts to somebody who can only focus on the monthly payment?

I have. It's like talking to a brick wall.

I've also seen people cry when the monthly payment won't fit their ability to pay.

Ahh, mindless consumerism. It's not pretty.

new 200 Mbps BROADBAND over POWER LINES said...

How to Profit From a Cooling Real Estate Market
by Robert Kiyosaki


Tuesday, June 13, 2006
All over the U.S. there are stories of a rise in real estate foreclosures. Many people who took those exotic mortgages -- borrowing 125% of home value or choosing adjustable-rate mortgages -- are struggling to make their payments, and some aren't making it.


Also, a glut of new property supply, especially condominiums, is coming on line. A friend of mine, a very seasoned real estate investor, says in San Diego County, once one of the hottest real estate markets in the country, thousands of new condominiums are getting ready to come to market -- just as the market softens. He estimates that over 12,000 new units are coming on line, and the market, at the best of times, can only absorb about 1,000 condominiums a year. If he's correct, that means 12 years of supply will be ready for market in the next year.


As interest rates rise and the number of eager new buyers begins to diminish, adding supply to an already bad real estate market for sellers may mean a very good market for buyers and for property investors.


Hungry Alligators


The people who are in the most trouble are flippers -- people who aim to buy low and sell high within a short space of time. Many were buying condominiums off the plans, which means the projects were yet to be built, in the hopes that when the homes were completed, they would sell for a tidy profit. The trouble is many of these flippers, lured into the market by stories of people making a huge killing earlier with a similar strategy, are now the ones to be slaughtered. Now, they either lose their deposit or have to cough up the money for the purchase in the hopes there's a greater fool than they were somewhere out there real estate.


If you recall, the same thing happened around the year 2000 as amateurs jumped into the stock market, buying up tech stocks or any IPO with a dot-com after the company name.


In the coming months, I predict we'll see an increase in people dumping real estate they can't afford. They'll be forced to sell because they'll be eaten alive by a phenomenon known as negative cash flow. Investment properties that you have to feed money to every month are fondly known as alligators -- if you can't afford to feed the property every month, it eats you.


I know of one so-called real estate investor (and I prefer to call people like him speculators rather than investors) who has three homes he thought he could flip for a profit -- but he priced them too high. Now, $7,500 comes out of his pocket every month to feed the negative-cash-flow alligators. The problem is, he and his wife don't earn that much a month. Their three alligators are literally eating them out of house and home, consuming the profits they made from other flips -- and their savings.


To add more pain to the misery, they still have to pay the capital-gain taxes they made from their previous successful flips. They're toast. The alligators are eating them alive. They can't afford to feed them, and they can't afford to sell them because the prices they paid for these alligators are more than they're worth today. And this is only one story -- out of who knows how many. Over the next couple of years, keep your eyes open for some great bargains.


It's Time for the Pros


Some people say we're now entering a bad real estate market. I disagree. I think we're entering a great market. A bad one is when amateur investors become real estate experts and they bid up prices. They make housing expensive for homeowners, often adding little to no value to the property. They simply muddy the waters and make a valuable investment, a home, expensive.



Now, I must admit, I sometimes do buy to flip, so I can't be too critical. Yet it's the amateurs who come late to the party -- and who eventually donate their money back to the professionals. What I'm saying is: Now is the time to turn pro. Now is not the time to be an amateur. It's the amateurs who jump in when the market is hot. It's the professional who comes in when it's cooling down. Get the message?


When the red-hot bull market of real estate was beginning to overheat, you didn't have time to make considered decisions. Sellers were receiving multiple, over-asking-price offers. In a bull market, you had to be quick, have money, and be a little foolish. Now that the market is cooling down, sellers are a little bit more humble. You have more time and can do your due diligence carefully. You can negotiate better terms and make a better deal, especially if the seller has his leg inside an alligator's jaws.


Bad News That's Good


But don't be in too much of a hurry. I think we still have some bad news yet to come -- and I believe it may come from the bond market. I suspect that many of our foreign investors who have been buying our debt may be becoming more cautious about investing in American assets, especially U.S. bonds. Many foreign bankers may be having doubts about the U.S. government paying the interest on our debt. In other words, many investors will be moving increasingly out of their cash into tangible assets such as gold, silver, and other metals. Again, this is only a suspicion. We should know more by September of this year.


If investors stop buying U.S. government debt, who knows what might happen? The U.S. may need to raise interest rates even higher, which will drive home values down even further. So be patient, keep looking at real estate, but keep your hand on your wallet (unless of course you find a seller with a really mean alligator eating him alive).


A year ago, I sent out a warning to investors, especially flippers, to cash out quickly. I received a lot of irate e-mails from people who thought I was turning on them. They thought I was spreading bad news. Little did they know that by forecasting a real estate downturn, I was spreading good news -- good news for real investors and bad news for amateur alligator wrestlers.

panicearly said...

bake mcbride,
not quite considering the exclusions
Nothing in this order shall be construed to prohibit a taking of private property by the Federal Government, that otherwise complies with applicable law, for the purpose of:
just about everything if it is construed as "public use" by the feds, including for profit private enterpises such as telecoms, unitlity companies, medical facilites, roads(toll?),
considering privatisation of just about everything like even drinking water in the works, there must be something a foot. im sure we will see something down the road.

moman said...

I don't think so. The problem is much larger and endemic. It's closely related to the widespread sense in people of entitlement, a desire to get rich quick, and not work hard for success.

Blaming the car dealers or realtors for leveraging buyer stupidity is like blaming the symptom for the disease. It's not ethical, it's not right, but it's hardly the root of the problem.

Have you ever tried showing "life of the loan" calculations and basic budget 101 concepts to somebody who can only focus on the monthly payment?

I have. It's like talking to a brick wall.


Osman, you are correct. People want to blame the enablers of our excess, but the root of the problem is lack of personal responsibility.

I've dealt with people that have no concept of assets prices, only monthly payments.

Heck I'd like to own a 2007 Tahoe and I can for $500 a month. But that is with a $10000 down payment and 72 months of payments. I'll be dammed if I'm going to work 6 months just to pay for a car (not counting tax expense).

The sooner the credit industry is restrained from using payments as the primary motivator the better off we will be as a country.

Anonymous said...

Forgive me for being naive - since I bought my first car 20 years ago I have always paid cash because I realized I would pay twice as much as the sticker price to pay monthly. But you can get a car for less than $20K. Median house prices in my area are in the mid $600s. Assuming the market really does crash - I would hope to see houses come down to a more realistic median of $400K. I don't have $400K - but with 20% down and a 30 year fixed rate loan I know that I could live within my means in a decent house in an area where I'm likely to remain employed. Are you saying if you don't have the money to buy outright that you shouldn't consider what you can afford to spend on housing on a monthly basis? Or are you just saying the system is wrong and people shouldn't be forced to think that way.

keith said...

welcome back osman

how's boulder looking these days? any panic there?

Anonymous said...

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moman said...

The payment should be a secondary consideration in purchasing.

If you can afford to purchase the "good", you will always be able to afford the payment.

Like you said, someone with 70k a year in income should have no problem affording a 200k house. But that doesn't mean that someone with 70k in income can afford a $2500 house payment. Heck I make close to that and spending more than $1000 a month on a house would put my balance sheet in big trouble. Of course I am saving as much as possible and am not willing to sacrifice that.

With cars, if you can afford a $20,000 car you can afford the $350 a month payment. But just because you can afford a $500 a month payment doesn't mean you can afford a $30,000 car (especially on a $33k a year salary, the average around here).

The thought of spending a full year working just to pay for a car makes me puke. Spending 7 years working to pay for a house is insane. Maybe 2-3 max.

Joe Logic said...

Still, the stupidist thing I've seen people do is stomach a $3000/month mortgage payment (like 60-70% of their net pay) on a house on already overpriced house because they think it's gonna appreciate $100k in a year.

Anyways, how many realtors and mortgage brokers are pushing 50-year mortgages right now? I'm seeing this pop up all over in Seattle.

Anonymous said...

Joe-

Ayy carumba seattle is the WORST. They know everybody is priced out now. the papers give great tips on how to buy houses you cannot afford.

Here's one: Buy property with friends!!

Now the RE booklets show monthly payments where the home price should be- no MENTION of actual price!

Buyers already getting badly burned and having to sell at below what they paid last year.

Prices got SO overinflated in Seattle so quickly.

Seattle's going to be a mess.

Joe Logic said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

That's frightening about the Executive Order.

Both the Kelo case and this order basically say that Government can take any property for any purpose they see fit.

arizonadude said...

There is so much bullsh@t out there to confuse the lay real estate buyer. Basically try to confuse the hell out of uneducated people with all the loan options and then have them sign their life away. Most people have no clue to what they are getting into but they do know that everyone is making money simply by owning a home. A lot of people I know have taken out so much equity they owe more than the house is valued at. This is not a healthy situation.

Tom said...

The psychology of home ownership overrides dollars and sense.

Osman said...

The City of Boulder seems to be doing just fine, but other areas around the Denver metro region are seeing a market shift. At the request of a recent visitor to my blog, I dug deeper and ran a back of the envelope analysis on education levels vs foreclosure rates. As you'd expect, it lined up pretty well.

How will the situation play out in the long term in Colorado? Some of our local markets (especially currently experiencing high inventory and slowing sales) may skid sideways until excess inventory and foreclosures have worked their way through the system.

Back to the whole personal responsibility discussion...

Moman, I'm not sure restraining lenders is the solution. As long as we're willing to tolerate a society of gross inequity AND lack of personal responsiblity/accountability, problems will arise. Blocking some unethical lending practices will never stop people from being taken advantage of because other avenues to part a fool from his money will surface.

I think it has to start and end with individual accountability.

Tom said...

How do you chart sideways? Both up and down? I would think high inventory and slowing sales cause the price chart to go down. In my carefully calculated economic model it will end with angry mobs, a guillotine and a slave revolt.

Osman said...

By skid sideways, I meant a period where nominal prices don't change substantially. To most, it appears as if the value of their home and the real estate market in general is not increasing or decreasing.

Anonymous said...

The Address of the last home listed SHOULD have BEEN 957 E. Dust Bowl Drive !

Anonymous said...

I love the Stay the Course Mentality in the US .

HEY..You HP Commies ! This IS America where Stupidity SELLS for a Premium and We are STILL Number 1.

Enjoy you micky D burgers and Freedom Fries with that Happy Meal Home re-set BARGIN you ARE ABOUT to EAT !

Carlson said...

They are showing infomercials about the 20 year old "no money down" school of RE investing. Buy the CDs and get rich the easy way. Take cash away from closing. Generate spendable CASH on the properties.

They are still trolling for fools who have not heard the news.

Anonymous said...

LMAO. I am looking sweet with my $500/mo. for 4800 sq.ft. 3 bedroom/2.5 bath/2.5 acre MANSION.

Gotta be a mansion if these jackoffs are paying $1000+ a month for a turd like 1500 sq. ft. hole.

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