BUBBLE TALK: Newest thread to talk about the bubble

June 17, 2006

BUBBLE TALK: Newest thread to talk about the bubble

Ah, nothing like a good housing bubble discussion to get your day started

242 comments:

1 – 200 of 242 Newer› Newest»

Smart Grid blogger said...: Which Homebuilder stocks is best for shorting or buying ?; May 08, 2006 3:22 AM
Anonymous said...: This blog is entertaining in a USA Today, National Enquirer kind of way, however when I want to read objective and well-written articles, I visit Ben's blog:

The Housing Bubble

Housing Panic is too sensationalistic and liberal for my taste. I only visit occasionally for the funny pictures (just like I only read the comics on Sundays).

I don't like reading real estate blogs that focus on:
- terrorism
- politics: immigration
- politics: general
- pop culture
- Hillary Clinton
- the price of oil and gold; May 08, 2006 4:52 AM
Anonymous said...: hey anon,... you need to look at the big picture. you need to realize that they are all connected. i am super conservative, and i can tell you that keith is not a liberal of the john kerry type. he is more of a pragmatic and is aware that the majority have been SOLD OUT, by the elites. think about it. it was ben's sight that led me to this one. i look at both. they are supplemental to each other. don't leave this one. you may just miss the missing link. :); May 08, 2006 6:22 AM
Smart Grid blogger said...: This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.; May 08, 2006 7:50 AM
Smart Grid blogger said...: Welcome to the dead zone
Real estate survival guide: The great housing bubble has finally started to deflate, and the fall will be harder in some markets than others.
By Shawn Tully, FORTUNE senior writer
May 5, 2006: 12:14 PM EDT; May 08, 2006 7:52 AM
blogger said...: "This blog is entertaining in a USA Today, National Enquirer kind of way, however when I want to read objective and well-written articles, I visit Ben's blog"

anon - you've posted this same message over 5 times on different threads. I'll leave this one up, but stop posting the same spam; May 08, 2006 11:17 AM
Anonymous said...: "anon - you've posted this same message over 5 times on different threads. I'll leave this one up, but stop posting the same spam"

yeah stop posting criticism of this blog or you will be arrested and taken in for questioning.; May 08, 2006 11:46 AM
Anonymous said...: ben's blog is good but mostly it's recycled articles. HP is a little giddy and definitely strays off topic, but at least there's some original content. on the other hand, there's lots of original content on "American Idol," but that doesn't mean you want to spend your time watching it.; May 08, 2006 11:49 AM
blogger said...: you can criticize this blog all you want. what you can't do is spam it with advertising or the exact same posting over and over; May 08, 2006 12:13 PM
Anonymous said...: I'm amazed at how the people that hate this blog have been here and commented already. If you hate the National Enquirer, Why would you open it up and read the articles?
Theres a bunch of sites I dont like and I removed them from my favorites lists, How hard Is that?; May 08, 2006 1:05 PM
Anonymous said...: Well said !! Hit it right on the nail!!
I've been Blog hopping for months and I always come back here. I've learned a lot here !
Good place to hang out !; May 08, 2006 2:15 PM
blogger said...: i think most of the negative posters and trolls are members of the real estate industrial complex (i.e. osman) who want to discredit the author or impact the blog's impact

kinda silly, but hey, if I was losing my job like they are, I'd be tempted to strike out too at the perceived causes; May 08, 2006 2:18 PM
Anonymous said...: ""what makes this bubble interesting?
its all the interconnections in an interconnected world
yen carry trade
mbs and its derivatives
frauds and mis information peddlers
phony statistics, and hidden m3
fraudulent politcians and illegal wars
oil and oily men in the white house
warren buffet and his sharecropper comments
war mongers, iran bourse theories,
teenagers with mortgages
hookers turn realtors
dead homeless people with investment properties, free gas money from uncle frist
it just goes on and on, and this is what makes it all the more tragically comic.
USA today or the enquirer would only wish they can be as colorful. ""

see: www.oilempire.us go to 'index' and pick a topic; May 08, 2006 4:00 PM
Anonymous said...: I live in Scottsdale, AZ. I heard the NAR's positive comments on the real estate market. I'm on the groun in a neighborhood where 32 homes are for sale. 17 of them have gone through price cuts and still not selling. On the average sellers are reducing their sales price every one and half weeks. I talk with prospective buyers when I visit open houses as a nosy neighbor. All buyers had one thing in common. They all agreed that 1) the home was overpriced 2) They would wait for a few price reductions and then submit a lower offer and 3) They wanted to screw and investor who made the market skyrocket here in beautiful AZ where homes used to be affordable. I am currently renting and will wait for the dog days of summer before looking for a home. Then an offer 150K below the sales price seems about right to me. The homes went up around $200K the last 2 years. So I figure if your a legitamite home seller your looking at 50K profit. That's a years salary for middle class folk like myself. If your an investor and bought late, then you'll either have to settle for 50K profit or lose money. But you should be thankful you can even sell. I visited an open house 4 doors down where an investor was almost in tears. He bought a house for 475K put some new floors down along with redone bathroms. Spent 30K. So net investment 505K. He listed at $599K and is now down to 540K. He almost in tears at the money he's lost. He complains about the 50K he's lost by reducing his sales price. But this paper money was never is to begin with. If he sells for 540K he still up 35K. It's greedy investors like these that I no longer feel sorry for. They buy a home, put down some new floors, some paint and then jack up the price 100K. Sorry to say but this is no longer the seller's market it was a year ago. Buyers are not stupid and you bet we're upset with the prices in our cities along with several other price increases for goods. In short I just like thousands of others are looking for a deal. I'm looking for a flipped property that is getting ready to foreclose and buy it at a bargain. Looking to buy at 100K under the sales price. Act now otherwise in a few months I'll be offering 200K under sales price and so and so on. Better to sell now and lose 100K in paper money before you start losing real money.; May 08, 2006 7:39 PM
Anonymous said...: I live in Riverside California. One of the biggest bubbles. Things are still out of control here and people are too. I just sold my primary residence I bought in 2002 for 200k for 430k. I am now renting a condo til this blows.; May 08, 2006 8:27 PM
Anonymous said...: I did the same thing. Bought for 188K and sold for 403K. So glad I sold. Only problem was I bought a 4000 sq. ft McMansion way out on the outskirts of town. Had to cancel with my builder. They said I was making a mistake and would lose 100K on this deal. I lost my earnest money of $7,500. Let me see live in a 4000 square foot monster which cost $400 a month in the summer to cool. Drive 33 miles one way to work at $4 a gallon in my SUV which gets 13 miles to the gallon. Or how about I keep the house and try to sell it for 100K profit in this market where 40 thousand other schmucks are trying to do the same thing. I bought for 188K and sold for 403K before. Cleaned me up 200K in profit. I think I can afford to lose $7,500 in earnest money. How many investors and sellers dont wish they could reduce by $7,500 and sell. I consider myself lucky. I just signed a 6 month rental lease with an additional 6 month option. I figure by the 110 degree heat of summer when nobody is buying in AZ or even visiting and the investors have to pay an additional $200-$400 dollars to cool their investment properties the DEALS will be rolling. That's when you offer $200k less and wait to see whch smart investor decides to lose and sell. Or maybe they'll turn me down. But when they come calling again I'll be offering 50K less than my last offer. I'll rent as long as it takes until I can get a smoking deal. Thanks to the investors, my city's housing market has become unaffordable. Now they have to dump their properties for deep discounts and soon for big losses. I come in when they are ready to dump for big losses. WHO'S WITH ME??!?!?!?!?!?; May 08, 2006 8:55 PM
Anonymous said...: I too disagree with renting BUT....I rent a great house for $1,500 a month with a huge yard (for my two doggies) and I have a 6 month lease which I paid off cash, thanks to making a killing on my house at the peak of the selling frenzy. Sellers in my area have reduced an average of 30K. With some reducing already by 100K. yes by 100K. so $1,500 monthyl rent mulitplied by 6 months is 9K. Add in a some tax write offs that I lost by renting vs. owning, and say i lose my security deposit because my dog chews through a few of the walls. Round all that off to 12K. If I buy a home that has been reduced between the 30K-100K range I will have saved big money. So I lost 12K by renting but I can buy a house that was reduced by 60K. That 48K I saved. Those type of numbers work for me. And just as an FYI for all those greedy investors that were here all last year, well now you've got one greedy buyer. I am looking for desperate investors that are willing to reduce and sell in the 200K below sales price range. I can show my greed just like them. If you can't beat them, join them! And believe me I can wait a lot longer than you can. Renting is STRESS free. No yard work, no responsibility. If you think there are no price reductions happening step into the real world. Just walk into ANY open house in my neighborhood on ANY weekend. EVERY and I mean EVERY investor home resale in my area has REDUCED. And I live in the heart of Scottsdale, AZ. Right in the middle of the action. New homes and investor properties 30-50 miles from town are being dropped and foreclosed on left and right. I canceled a home with my builder that I made the mistake in purchasing and at first they were angry and let me know how much money I was turning away. They've since called and sweetened their offer. A 20,000 pool incentive and the earnest money they kept when I cancelled ($7,500) goes back into my pocket. So the 20K plus the $7,500 reduction in price. And you know what, I still ain't buying. I wish them luck in selling. The price will come down more and more.; May 08, 2006 9:22 PM
Anonymous said...: I am with you guys. We are in north/central florida looking for a home to buy to live in for 10 years and raise our kid. We have 100k cash to put down and dual incomes(medical for her, medical IT for me) which luckily are fairly recession proof jobs. The things you say about AZ are exactly the same here in Florida!

Event though the MSM is just now getting it I have seen the same price reductions and increase of for sales (that are NOT selling). Even the kick ass homes are not selling. I came to the same 200k overpriced number and we are planning to do the same thing as you guys/girls. We are going to rent and watch then in the next year or two when things get really bad for people we will find some sweet place that some poor fool has to get out of and make a MUCH reduced offer. I have beeen listening to my coworkers brag about the money train for years as I watched them blow home equity loan after loan and yes pay of their credit cards but also buy a lot of crap. And of course fill the cards again. I just moved from Vegas and I feel real bad for those people. That place is going to turn into one big suburban ghetto.; May 08, 2006 9:24 PM
Anonymous said...: Next up on America's Shocking Home (loan) Videos:

FANNY AND FREDDY GONE WILD!

http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060508:MTFH77944_2006-05-08_20-07-48_N08196603&symbol=FNM.N&rpc=44

Fannie, Freddie clamor for mortgage market share
Mon May 8, 2006 4:07 PM ET

By Lynn Adler

CHICAGO, May 8 (Reuters) - Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the biggest U.S. home-funding companies, are appealing to mortgage bankers to win back market share lost to private competitors during this decade's sweeping home-loan innovation.

Both government-sponsored enterprises stressed, to 2,300 industry professionals at the Mortgage Bankers Association's annual secondary-market conference here on Monday, their readiness to buy and securitize more products, such as adjustable-rate and interest-only loans.

Private competitors have acted more swiftly to build systems that would enable them to participate in the surge of such alternative loans, which borrowers clamored for as home prices surged by double digits annually.

-------------------------

So, right at the bursting of the bubble, they are complaining

"GEE GUYS GIVE US MORE HITS ON THE CRACK PIPE, PLEEEEASE?!"

My attitude is absolutely the other way around.

If they are government sponsored (and they are, with powerful lobbyists), then they have to stick exclusively to the most conservative home loans with pristine underwriting standards.

If some bozos want to speculate with their bozo shareholder money on subprime bozo mortgages, let them, and let the short sellers find t hem and let the vulture capitalists pick over their bankrupt corpse.

But no mortgage crack on the taxpayer dime!

Can you imagine how bad the bubble would be if Fannie and Freddie were getting involved in the already obscenely idiotic lending bubble?; May 08, 2006 9:35 PM
Anonymous said...: What's up with the Wachovia purchase of a bunch of debt today?; May 08, 2006 10:43 PM
Anonymous said...: From GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD:

One thing we have to remember is that gold isn't really an investment. It's speculation. Gold, like houses, produces nothing. It's just a shiny yellow metal with few practical uses.

"GOLD IS MONEY, and nothing else"

- J.P. Morgan

Since when did anyone expect MONEY to produce something. We expect our money to command purchasing power both present and future.

Both Gold and Fiat command purchasing power today. Niether produce a thing. However FIAT's purchasing power is rapidly declining relative to Gold's, so Gold is the better money to hold long term. Such as the type of money you would want to save for retirement. The smart money will stay out of FIAT savings until the after-tax real rates are positive again, if-ever.; May 09, 2006 6:07 AM
Anonymous said...: There may be an actual housing bubble in places that have been over developed, like the I10 corridor in Arizona. The rest of the problem in most reasonable markets is in lending where people in ARMS have not yet refinanced to fixed loans. The bubble can be avoided in these places if people dump their ARM's . The smartest thing anyone who has an arm that is beginning to or threatening to eat them alive in an unsustainable monthly payment can do is to refinance to the forty year fixed while they can, sit on it and wait. Maybe there will be an influx of rich Chinese and Indian entrepanuers coming to a neighborhood near you with cash in hand.; May 09, 2006 7:10 PM
Anonymous said...: Take the Housing Panic survey regarding gold here:

When did Keith make the Gold call?

14th comment down....; May 09, 2006 9:44 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith,

May I ask you for a separate thread devoted to the effects of the (likely) coming inflation? How best to counter it both for a renter who can afford to purchase home in the next 2-4 years and those who cannot with no investment to speak of?

Is real property in fact a good buffer against inflation?
Thanks.; May 10, 2006 3:44 AM
Anonymous said...: How about a thread about the readers of the blog? Where are you, own/rent, man/woman (I'm getting the feeling I'm outnumbered), age, feelings on the bubble.; May 10, 2006 5:18 AM
Anonymous said...: The meltdown is really starting. I had expected it to gather momentum slowly over the summer and fall and really pop in 2007 but the spring sales season has been a flop here in So Cal and prices are clearly falling. The builders reports showing sales increases are clearly fake or have such high margins of error that the numbers have no meaning. It's here. It's time. 2006.; May 10, 2006 5:45 AM
Anonymous said...: To Scottsdale guy who thinks $50k is "reasonable profit":

If you purchase for $200K and want to NET $50K PROFIT you have to sell at way over $250K.

Don't forget there's realtor fees, seller paid closing costs,
heavy taxes; re-cooping costs of improvements (ok, REAL improvements, not just a new floor), and initial down payment. You can't NET $50K by selling it at $50K over what you bought it for.; May 10, 2006 7:23 AM
degoboy said...: The SCal RE meltdown is on! drove thru a very exclusive 2-block long cul-de-sac of million dollar homes in Rancho San Margarita, maybe the best master-planned community in all of OC. 4 homes for sale. Drove 1 mile thru Euclid ave just north of 10 fwy in Upland. For sale signs every 10th home. Drove along 10 fwy from upland thru Montclair and Pomona and every fwy sign spray-painted with graffiti, which indicates that RE values in inland empire will soon drop due to massive illegal alien intrusion:in fact on ziprealty they are doing so now despite the lies of CAR and NAR. RE sale signs popping up everywhere like overgrown weeds, or with the weeds thrown in. This late spring is the last rally for the desperate SCal sellers before the summer meltdown.; May 10, 2006 7:28 AM
Anonymous said...: Fed set to raise rates on Wednesday to the highest level in five years ; language eyed; May 10, 2006 7:34 AM
Anonymous said...: Hey, all you greedy buyers waiting for the "investors" to sell low will probably have to wait until its an REO. Most of those "investors" already had shitty credit when they bought; they'd rather walk away then sell without making a profit.

And why should they care anyway,
the same lax lenders will be ready to lend them $$ again in a year or two:o); May 10, 2006 7:35 AM
Anonymous said...: This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.; May 10, 2006 3:23 PM
Anonymous said...: News from boston
it was to be expectedhttp://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2006/05/10/more_are_struggling_to_pay_the_mortgage/?p1=MEWell_Pos1; May 10, 2006 5:29 PM
Anonymous said...: Housing bubble? Try COMMODITIES BUBBLE!!

If inventory is up over last year by 5%, which is no small amount and consumption is down, how can prices be up? I smell a gold and oil bubble. When it pops along with the housing market the only people who are going to make money are those in the STOCK MARKET!!!

In its weekly petroleum report, the Energy Department said crude-oil inventories rose last week by 300,000 barrels to 347 million barrels, or roughly 5 percent above year ago levels. Gasoline inventories climbed by 2.4 million barrels to 205.1 million barrels, or almost 4 percent below last year.

The report showed refinery capacity utilization climbed last week by 1.4 percent to 90.2 percent. Gasoline demand over the past four weeks averaged 9.14 million barrels per day, slightly lower than the same period a year ago.; May 10, 2006 7:42 PM
Anonymous said...: Well i would create a named acount but after the 20th attempt a user acount that says i cant use it..i give up.; May 10, 2006 11:23 PM
Anonymous said...: You don't have to create an account. Just click "other" and type a name in the box.; May 11, 2006 1:34 AM
Anonymous said...: Oh thanks :); May 11, 2006 3:37 AM
Anonymous said...: The rapidly increasing number of listings is undeniable in the LA area, even if realtors churn them to make old listings appear new. If the Bay Area is similar and NYC follows, then the rest of the country can no longer deny the bubble. Once the big markets fall, the media cannot ignore the obvious. I've been waiting for this since I sold my house in Nov, 2004. The summer meltdown is on!; May 11, 2006 4:34 AM
Anonymous said...: Speaking of the 50yr, it was all over the Ch.9 news money report in L.A. today.

I've never rented before so I don't know the reality of it. Is renting that bad that people will do anything to own their own home?; May 11, 2006 5:49 AM
Anonymous said...: Noodles, Well said!

C in ABQ, Thanks for the tip!; May 11, 2006 7:04 AM
Anonymous said...: I just had a great idea, wouldn't it be great if people started stamping "IOU one ounce of gold" on $20 dollar bills and "IOU 1/20 ounce of silver" on $1 dollar bills? Make it look like a dialog coming out of the dead presidents mouth. That'd be classic.; May 11, 2006 7:07 PM
Anonymous said...: I am wondering when the reports of shoddy construction, from the mass production of houses starts getting reported. The labor force is definately just slapping the new houses together. When is this going to make it into the news?; May 11, 2006 7:44 PM
Anonymous said...: Gold is NOT money. Gold is a shiny metal. It is no more inherently "money" than platinum, diamonds, zinc, sugar cane, or any other tangible thing. Sure it's rare, but so are acorns shaped like Jesus and lots of other things. And yes, coins are made of it, but they're also made of zinc, and I've never heard anyone claim that zinc is the only true money.

The recent run-up in gold is just another speculative bubble and it will end as badly as it did in the 80s, when several people I knew lost a lot of money. In fact, this run-up is probably being fueled by hedge funds and extreme leverage (they're apparenly also investing in movies now that they can't find returns in any normal market). Congrats to those who got in early and made a nice profit - you had good foresight. But getting in now is playing Russian roulette. It may go to $1000 or it may plummet back to $400; I don't profess to know which it will hit first. If you look at GLD's chart, it has gone parabolic and that's ALWAYS a bad omen. It was for tech stocks, it was for housing, and it was for gold the last time it ran up like this. I've never seen the price of anything go parabolic and then just level off.

By the way, what's with the constant proclamations that "gold is at a 25-year high"? Is that supposed to be better than being at a 5-year or 10-year high? All that tells me is that the price of gold has taken 25 years to get back to this level. Total real return over that period: very, very negative. I suppose it would be even better if gold was at a 400-year high. You could buy gold for the same price the Pilgrims got it at! Things that go up consistently in price are usually at an ALL-TIME high. Like milk and eggs, for instance. No blaring headlines about how they're more expensive than they were in 1981.; May 11, 2006 8:28 PM
Anonymous said...: Precious metals are the only real money. Try telling that shiny yellow metal story to Central Banks. Even though they print money, they seem to agree that gold actually is money and keep it in reserve. They're just making too much profit on the paper stuff for now. Paper is currency, not money. It terms of gold, everything else is expensive. Gold is cheap right now.; May 11, 2006 8:39 PM
Anonymous said...: i do consulting for one of the top 5 home builder in the country. guess what, they just started laying off people.; May 11, 2006 10:50 PM
Anonymous said...: SAN DIEGO JUST HIT 20,000

Homes on the market . . .check Ziprealty.com. ..San Diego County. . .!!!!! a day ahead of my prediction.; May 11, 2006 11:10 PM
Anonymous said...: Gold is cheap right now.

OK, I'm open-minded to opposing points of view. But how do you support this assertion that gold is cheap? The problem is, I don't know how to value it! Is it worth the $250/oz. that it was trading for a couple of years ago, or what it's trading for today, or $2000/oz? Or $10,000/oz? How cheap is cheap?

With stocks (and I'm not pumping stocks here - I think they're mostly overvalued as well) I can calculate at least a rough valuation based on price/earnings growth, debt/equity, and other ratios. But how do you know what an ounce of gold is worth? It doesn't do anything! Sure, you can call it a store of value, but what isn't a store of value? Copper is a store of value. Why isn't copper money? Can you really spend gold? Have you ever bought a basket of groceries with lumps of gold? At least in the U.S., gold is still denominated in DOLLARS. Gold won't be "money" until I see a sign telling me how many grams of gold a pound of bananas costs.

OK, so U.S. currency is fiat money. That doesn't mean that gold is "real" money any more than it means condos or acres of land in Montana are money (banks, by the way, hold these on their balance sheets as well). You said that precious metals are the only real money. Why did you exclude diamonds? Or emeralds? Or Picasso paintings? They're precious too.

By the way, I didn't intentionally obscure my blogger ID in the previous post. Just lazy.

_________________________________

Copper is money too. Ever heard of a penny. Actually, it stopped being money in 1982 when there feared it value would surpass a penny (that's fiat currency for you). Now even zinc/copper pennies are getting close to being worth more than a penny. True money has certain characteristics to it.

divisible
durable
rare (not easily manufactured or mined, unlike seashells or paper currency)
it's widely accepted

and there are a few others, but those are the basics.; May 12, 2006 12:28 AM
Anonymous said...: If gold is $710/ox now, and foreign Central Banks hold an exhorbitant amount of US debt and are currently diversifying out of that and into gold, what do you think will happen to the price of gold in dollar terms. Not only that, but a lot of countries have a lot of debt and the US dollar (the reserve currency of the world) is starting it's long plunge down. That right there oughta tell you gold is cheap simply because everyone has been fictiously over valueing ever increasing amounts of paper promises to pay, with pictures of dead US presidents on them.; May 12, 2006 12:35 AM
blogger said...: anon - i deleted your full post of this article and reposted - people can go to the link - do not post full stories

BREAKING NEWS: Real estate mogul Solomon Dwek arrested at his home

Posted by the Asbury Park Press on 05/11/06
BY NANCY SHIELDS, BOB CULLINANE, JAMES PRADO ROBERTS,
JASON METHOD AND PAUL D'AMBROSIO
STAFF WRITERS

http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage; May 12, 2006 3:43 PM
Anonymous said...: Check this on To The Point. I love David L! Isn't he just great! His arguement is based upon optimism and sunny outlooks. Don't worry. Be happy! What? Me worry? and so on.

http://www.moretothepoint.com/
Scroll down to:
A High-Price Home: Freedom or Economic Servitude?
Enjoy.; May 13, 2006 12:30 PM
Anonymous said...: OCEAN TOWNSHIP, NEW JERSEY: Updates on Possible Collapse of REAL ESTATE MOGUL`S EMPIRE; May 13, 2006 3:09 PM
Anonymous said...: The thing you have to remember is, the credit hasn't even been cut yet, but the biggest "speculative areas" are already in full retreat. Just think when the restructuring goes down what will happen?

So for all you "nomads" that are blathering about prices not falling(even though you could make a case they are), just wait to the OCC goes through with its new Mortgage regs on these "exotic" regs we have had. The credit scheme will collapse.

The Real Estate bubble was as much a Government scheme post dot.com bust as a monetary one. I wouldn't be surprised if NAR,GOV and the FED didn't have this conspired for awhile, at least as a backup plan for the dot.com bust. Those idiots.; May 13, 2006 8:10 PM
Anonymous said...: A question for the group--help me understand the reasoning on the blog. If hyperinflation is coming, wouldn't you WANT to buy real estate now? After all, the prices are high, but you are financing the purchase of a hard asset with dollars soon to be made worthless by inflation--why not buy now if you believe this prediction??; May 14, 2006 2:28 PM
Anonymous said...: off topic, but I could not resist posting the e mail I just got:; May 14, 2006 6:23 PM
Anonymous said...: NBA OR NFL?

36
have been accused of spousal abuse

7
have been arrested for fraud

19
have been accused of writing bad checks

117
have directly or indirectly bankrupted at least 2 businesses

3
have done time for assault

71,
repeat
71 can not
get a credit card due to bad credit

14
have been arrested on drug-related charges

8
have been arrested for shoplifting

21
currently
are defendants in lawsuits, and

84
have been arrested for drunk driving
in
the last year

Can
you guess which organization this is?

Give
up yet? . . . Scroll down,

Neither,
it's the 535 members of the United
States Congress.

The
same group of Idiots that crank out hundreds of new laws each year
designed to keep the rest of us in line.

You
gotta pass this one on!; May 14, 2006 6:23 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.orlandosentinel.com/

Middle class struggles to buy homes
Locally, the median home sales price has risen 138% but income only 16% since 2000.

April Hunt and Jerry W. Jackson | Sentinel Staff Writers
Posted May 14, 2006

anon comment: The Main Stream Orlando Paper said it, finally.
See this Sentinal Quote towards the end of the article,

"Vitner, the Wachovia economist, predicted that "home prices will look a whole lot better in 2007."

Prices rose too fast for too long and now must adjust to historic norms, Vitner said. Yet the problem of affordability will not go away.

The nation's biggest home builders are consolidating; the top 10 now control record levels of homes and land, so they can command higher prices for that reason alone, he said. And big builders are the only ones with the kind of money needed to pay the soaring costs of development.

The outcome of the affordability crisis is unclear, but experts agree that, for high-growth areas such as Central Florida, the pressure will continue to build."; May 14, 2006 7:47 PM
Anonymous said...: I meant to type "a gross-out" not "an gross-out." Keith, please invest in a spell-check, so we aren't constantly stuck with ridiculous errors.; May 15, 2006 4:54 AM
Anonymous said...: This claim about members of congress is bogus. Snopes deals with in it considerable detail.

http://tinyurl.com/rfr2

Note that the original claim doesn't name names or specify anything. It's just a fabrication.; May 15, 2006 2:45 PM
Smart Grid blogger said...: Homebuilders: Is the Party Over?
By Lisa Sanders

Though valuations have come down for many companies, S&P analyst William Mack says recent financials show that investors should be cautious

Those who think the housing boom will never end should think again. Last year, William Mack, an industry analyst for Standard & Poor's Equity Research, was positive on the homebuilders group, but he warned that higher short-term interest rates, if met by higher long-term rates, would likely pressure home buying demand.

http://yahoo.businessweek.com/investor/content/may2006/pi20060515_956930.htm; May 15, 2006 3:32 PM
Smart Grid blogger said...: Industry in Focus
By Lisa Sanders

Homebuilders: Is the Party Over?; May 15, 2006 3:34 PM
Anonymous said...: Here is the Orlando Article link corrected.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/orl-housing1406may14,0
,4505550.story?track=mostemailedlink; May 15, 2006 3:49 PM
Anonymous said...: NFL or NBA?
I believe you guys, thanks for setting me straight. I SHALL E MAIL A LINK TO THIS BLOG back to people who sent NFL OR NBA to me.....; May 15, 2006 3:56 PM
Anonymous said...: While you're at it, could you e-mail my demented cousin? She's always sending me these Internet fables. To think there are writers who spend endless time faking revelations and blasting them around the world because there are other people like my cousin who can't get enough malarkey.

The snopes.com site is good for debunking a lot of this stuff.; May 15, 2006 5:16 PM
Anonymous said...: I've got a bike.
You can ride it if you like.
It's got a basket, a bell that rings,
and things to make it look good.
I'd give it to you if I could, but I borrowed it.

You're the kind of girl that fits in with my world.
I'll give you anything, everything, if you want things.

I've got a cloak, it's a bit of a joke.
There's a tear up the front, it's red and black,
I've had it for months.
If you think it could look good then I guess it should.

You're the kind of girl that fits in with my world
I'll give you anything, everything, if you want things

I know a mouse and he hasn't got a house.
I don't know why I call him Gerald.
He's getting rather old but he's a good mouse.

You're the kind of girl that fits in with my world.
I'll give you anything, everything, if you want things.

I've got a clan of gingerbread men.
Here a man, there a man, lots of gingerbread men.
Take a couple if you wish, they're on the dish.

You're the kind of girl that fits in with my world.
I'll give you anything, everything, if you want things

I know a room full of musical tunes.
Some rhyme, some ching, most of them are clockwork.

Let's go into the other room and make them work.

No, I really do have a bike. And a unicycle. And a scooter. And roller blades. And a pogo stick. OK I SAY GOODAY!; May 15, 2006 9:53 PM
Anonymous said...: Is share buy backs- a strategy of Homebuilders to fight "SHORT-SELLERS" of their stocks or to make their stock price stronger for Investors ???

read: Centex to repurchase additional 12 million shares
Mon May 15, 2006 4:30 PM ET; May 16, 2006 5:47 AM
Anonymous said...: Keith,
U have lost control of the blog.
Do something. I miss the debates.
Where are the intellectuals I have gotten accustom to?
2muchtimeonmyhands; May 16, 2006 4:22 PM
Anonymous said...: I have sold a house in CA and looking to relocate to Texas in the next few years. I have read in the Fortune magazine that Texas may be undervalued. Anyone on this blog has an opinion on the RE market there? Anyone familiar with nice areas in TX to raise a family? Thanks for any input.; May 17, 2006 6:41 AM
The Thinker said...: Uknowwhoiyam, that was a splendid article, I wouldn’t have expected as much from Fox News. It is axiomatic that those who forget the past are destined to repeat it.

People will deny the housing decline until the day that they can deny it no longer, and then they will think they made it through the worst even when the true carnage is just getting started.

Mr. Toad is in for a wild ride indeed!; May 17, 2006 3:27 PM
Anonymous said...: Anon - moving to Texas.

Avoid the coasts (Houston, Corpus) unless you really like humidity. S, SE Houston also a target for flooding in a hurracane.

I live in Fort Worth and love it. You can get great house, Top school district for under $300K. If your willing to live in the burbs (Azle or Eagle Mt) you can saw another$50-100K off that.

Dallas is very crowded, but the areas North of Dallas are rapidly growing (probably the only 'bubble' area in TX). My second choice is Austin. Very liberal due to UT. Bexar County (Austin) is considered the Democratic Reservation for many - otherwise it open season year round. :)

San Antonio would be my third choice. You can get houses very cheap there, but recommend the North, NE and NW of SAn Antonio. Avoid the area right next to Randolph AFB, but otherwise those areas are good.

Be picky, school quality veries widely within the same High School pyramid (My kids go to Exemplary ES through HS but there are some very underperforming ES in the same pyramid).

Good Luck and learn some Spanish (mandatory for the kids in public school BTW).; May 17, 2006 10:40 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey everybody, go to the Yahoo Finance homepage (finance.yahoo.com) and answer the poll question. It asks if homebuilder stocks are worth buying now. I chose the "No, it's a house of cards" option.; May 18, 2006 12:50 AM
Anonymous said...: Keith,
What?!! A housing boom in your backyard???

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/20060517/bs_bw/gb20060516070520; May 18, 2006 9:56 PM
Anonymous said...: OK What do you think
If we rent for 2 more years will we ever be able to get in if this happens here?

Americans who are lying awake at night worrying that the prices of their homes will fall off a wall like Humpty Dumpty can take some comfort in the experience of Londoners. After house prices in the British capital racked up double-digit gains seven years in a row through 2003, most forecasters predicted a nasty snapback. So far it hasn't happened. In fact, there are signs that prices are beginning to resume their upward climb
READ ON
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/may2006/gb20060516_070520.htm?campaign_id=search; May 18, 2006 11:36 PM
Anonymous said...: We just moved to Austin and really like it. We are renting though. Houses are overpriced right now. Lots of californians have raised the prices. There are numerous good schools here. That's why we came. The city proper is nice too. Lots of music venues ect. and lots of green space in the city. Houses where we live start at around 300k.; May 19, 2006 1:31 AM
Anonymous said...: Nice editorial in the Washington Post on May 15 about Freddie Mac. Man this is bad... sounds like the HUD cronys from the Reagan era all over again.

Washington Post; May 19, 2006 2:20 AM
Anonymous said...: noodles:

Wow, my hat is off to you! I think you just cashed in.... on HUGE karma dollars!

K.; May 20, 2006 1:31 AM
Anonymous said...: Exposing the real truth behind 911

BLACK OPERATIONS: Home Run; May 20, 2006 4:33 AM
Anonymous said...: btw guys / girls I remember reading something to this effect
about Miami that there were aprox
35000 starts on condos while the local market consumes approx 12 or 14 hundred annualy...; May 20, 2006 10:15 AM
Anonymous said...: As evidence the downdraft in housing won't necessarily lead to a drop in prices, Greenspan cited the recent experience in the U.K. and Australia.

"Prices just flattened, and they had bigger booms than the U.S.," Greenspan said.; May 20, 2006 1:48 PM
Anonymous said...: To the anonymous poster on Sat May 20 at 4:33 AM:

Keith has already stated that such material should not be posted on this blog. It is purely baseless crap that does no good for anybody. We can harp on our national security all we want for allowing 9/11 to occur, but to say that there were not hundreds of people that died on those planes is simply wrong. The families of those who died deserve better than the lowlife rubbish of people like you.; May 20, 2006 4:04 PM
Anonymous said...: I think Greenspan's point was, the housing "boom" was over, but the "price" will probably just regress toward mean through years of stagnation.

Confidential sources list Greenspan is very worried about the mess he helped create but that he is old and a hero, he doesn't care anymore.; May 21, 2006 3:52 AM
Anonymous said...: Gold anyone?; May 21, 2006 3:40 PM
Anonymous said...: Back to the Anon poster at: May 20, 2006 4:04:40 PM, who said:

but to say that there were not hundreds of people that died on those planes is simply wrong. The families of those who died deserve better than the lowlife rubbish of people like you.

REBUTTAL:

Where did you get the mistaken impression that hundreds of people were not killed on the planes? I said no such thing.

Here is the post again for all to read:

Exposing the real truth behind 911

BLACK OPERATIONS: Home Run

Home Run is a Remote Override Technology that can be used by ground controllers to take over the flight controls and thus fly or hijack an airplane remotely.

As to the families to those who died, they deserve the truth not more media lies!!!!

For your actions of name calling you prove yourself to be lowlife rubbish. :); May 21, 2006 5:11 PM
Anonymous said...: It is purely baseless crap that does no good for anybody.

Gee this describes 80% of mass media reports. HA HA HA HA!; May 21, 2006 5:17 PM
Anonymous said...: Speaking of baseless crap, every RE Sales Broker I talk to or hear on the Radio says Zillow is crap and there is no bubble and houses are going to go up in Orlando 8% to 10% this year! I am so aggravated. Zillow shows housing in downtown Orlando down 10% this year, I am told that I have bad information by these “experts”. One RE buyer broker even told me he cannot work with me because I have unrealistic expectations.; May 21, 2006 6:15 PM
Anonymous said...: Jeez, who put the bee in your bonnet? You seem rather angry today, but I am having trouble discerning who your anger rant is directed towards. Are you mad at home owners or bubble sitters?
Besides the fact, Keith said to keep it clean……; May 21, 2006 7:02 PM
Anonymous said...: To the 9/11 rebuttal guy: Based on your response verbatim, you seem to have a missed a word or two of what I wrote. I stand by what I said, and you are rubbish. End of story.

And stop posting 9/11 crap, period.; May 21, 2006 8:08 PM
Anonymous said...: Hi, folks
This is an end of AZ denial:

"Housing decline triggers layoffs"
by
Glen Creno and Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
May. 19, 2006

http://tinyurl.com/p7ptg; May 21, 2006 8:57 PM
Anonymous said...: And stop posting 9/11 crap, period.

Never posted crap, only the TRUTH!

Why are you taking it so personally anyway? I mean to start name calling because someone provides evidence that goes against your beliefs... just shows all what kind of person you really are. You are closed minded. And that's not meant as in insult; just a fact.; May 22, 2006 3:47 AM
Anonymous said...: Yeah, I'm mad (not at the people on this blog). I'm mad at all who have participated in, stoked, and set the conditions for the bubble.

This is all very real for me. Me and my peers have been driven out of the housing market by the insane speculation. And those lucky enough to get in are going to get screwed. Tonight I just (hopefully) talked a friend out of buying a place right now, especially since she plans to move in two years. In two years, she'll be lucky if she sees appreciation. And she has nothing to cushion against an equity loss.

Myself and another buddy, we can't even afford to get in.

We're all highly educated, responsible, and have been working at least a few years. We resent this bubble madness screwing up something that should really be a staple.

I resent the underlying system, too. The subsidization of sprawl has deformed the face of this country (the US) and degenerated its society. Long commutes, social isolation, SUVs, gas wastage, foreign petro-intervention; its all so deeply wrong and misguided.

Most "regular" middle-class folks have been turning a blind eye to all of this, leaning back and sharing in the unearned lucre. *Now* they hate Bush, when its too late. *Now* they wish we weren't dependent on oil, when its too late. *Now* they wish they hadn't joined in the real estate pyramid scheme, when its too late.

I find it hard to sympathize.; May 22, 2006 6:06 AM
Anonymous said...: To Anon who wrote:

We're all highly educated, responsible, and have been working at least a few years. We resent this bubble madness screwing up something that should really be a staple.

I feel your pain. If you want to know who is responible, look no further than the financial community and the polititians.

Normal folks simply can't resist being sold something they really want to have.

For example, last week I visited my local Harley-Davidson dealership. While looking at a new bike, a salesman walked up to me and I asked him, "How much is this motorcycle?" He said, "I'll have to get you into the finance office to determine your payment."

I said, "No, I'll be paying cash and you don't have a price tag on any of your new bikes". He looked it up and said, "It's $22,800 plus prep, taxes, title, etc. I'm sure we can get you a resonable payment if you want to finance it."

I said, "O.K. I'm not interested in the payment amount, just the interest rate; how much is it?"

He said, "That depends. If you have perfect A+ Credit, its going to be 8%-9%, but if not we can get anyone approved through xxxxxx finance co at 22.9%" I looked at him an asked, "How many people come in here and buy a bike at a 22.9% rate?"

He said, "more than half of all sales. Its great to see people light-up when you tell them that they are approved."

-------------------------------

And that's why we have a real estate bubble. About half the buyers of any major purchase, from houses to boats to motorcycles are signing any contract whatsoever that let's-em get instant gratification and an ego-boost. They are too dumb or lazy to crunch the numbers and realize the piss-poor financial situation they are putting themselves in. They live for today and will pay for it tommorow.

Part of the reason a large chunk of society has developed this attitude is the ease with which old bankruptcy laws allowed folks to walk away from debts after years of bad financial behavior.

Now that we have new BK laws, as stories get around (2 to 5 years from now) about the folks who are permentally stuck on hard times; I predict the percentage of people committing financial suicide will diminish.

When this happens, buyers won't have to compete with instant-fiat-credit and prices in real terms will drop substantially. Good for buyers - Bad for sellers.; May 22, 2006 7:08 AM
Anonymous said...: I AGREEE!!!!; May 22, 2006 7:31 AM
Anonymous said...: Some pissed off youngster wrote:

"Myself and another buddy, we can't even afford to get in.

We're all highly educated, responsible, and have been working at least a few years. We resent this bubble madness screwing up something that should really be a staple."

Hey junior, where do you live and work? You do not have to play in bubbleland. Maybe you should look at living somewhere that you can afford to live. Balance my young friend, balance.

And working a few years... Are you debt free yet or running up the credit cards / bills?; May 22, 2006 1:46 PM
Anonymous said...: As evidence the downdraft in housing won't necessarily lead to a drop in prices, Greenspan cited the recent experience in the U.K. and Australia.

"Prices just flattened, and they had bigger booms than the U.S.," Greenspan said.; May 22, 2006 1:53 PM
Anonymous said...: jeez autofx in phx! - do you want to spank him too!?; May 23, 2006 12:48 AM
Anonymous said...: There is ni bubble in Southern California!...well that's what these 2 local professors wrote about in a paper that was featured in the local San Bernardino county newspaper. LOL! What a pair of F-tards. Sad thing is that most of the people that live around here (blue collar) are low educated morons and will read this paper and go out an buy a house. Check it out.....
http://www.dailybulletin.com/business
/ci_3819565#; May 23, 2006 2:49 AM
Anonymous said...: It's always humorous when someone uses as a sales tool that "Similar condos in the area including Fairfax, Reston, Chantilly, and Arlington, and Alexandria are selling above $500,000!" It begs the question, "Then why have you reduced your price $126,000 below what these "similar condos" are selling for?"; May 23, 2006 4:11 PM
Anonymous said...: Got this article off Wall Street Journal Online (bold emphasis is mine):

Baton or Bag?
May 24, 2006

Bulls say U.S. businesses are smoothly taking the economy's baton from households. Bears say businesses might end up holding the bag, instead.

Today brings two reports from the Census Bureau -- April new-home sales and April durable-goods orders -- that could help determine which analogy works best. Sales and orders both jumped unexpectedly in March. Economists believe both were weaker in April. But that's where the similarity ends.

In March, new-home sales rose 13.8% from February -- a move that was out of line with mortgage applications, other housing reports and what home builders themselves said. April was payback time. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC on average estimate sales fell 3.5%.

The decline could be steeper. Sentiment among home builders has fallen sharply. The National Association of Homebuilders reported last week its housing-market index fell to its lowest level in more than a decade. Toll Brothers, a builder of luxury homes, said yesterday that slowing demand and a glut of homes dumped by speculative investors cut into sales. And average prices for new and existing homes have been declining in recent months.

The homes report might understate the softness in sales, because the government doesn't account for cancellations, says UBS Securities economist Jim O'Sullivan. His colleague, housing analyst Margaret Whelan, calculates a 24% average cancellation rate among 15 big builders in the first quarter, up from 19% in 2005.

Economists estimate durable-goods orders slipped by 0.1% in April from March, taking back a snick of the 6.5% March increase. But this decline looks to have come -- if it came at all -- in the context of overall strength in business spending. For the first quarter, durable orders posted double-digit gains from a year ago.

In other words, businesses don't appear too worried that the weakness in housing will spill over to the rest of the economy. Northern Trust economist Paul Kasriel, a bear, doubts that will last. Consumers have depended on housing wealth to keep spending, and their purchases account for roughly 70% of economic output. If their spending slows, he says, businesses are bound to become more cautious.; May 24, 2006 4:03 AM
Anonymous said...: "patience patience" and "autofx in phx":

No, I don't feel I have a birthright to anything other than an equal playing field. At the age I am now, a generation ago, the average person would have been fully "established" in life and had much more opportunity than is available today (most of the upbeat economic stats are distortions).

Yeah, I have debt. I basically started out with it. For comparison, I left college with about the same level of debt as my dad. My dad went to multiple ivys; I went to a public in-state school. Despite the fact that I *earned* money in grad school, I came out owing a moderate five figures.

What else... I am robbed for $5000/yr for medical coverage that I don't need, and I have no choice in the matter. I'm already paying the absolute minimum possible.

Overall, the median person in my generation cannot afford to have a life, and this housing bubble is one of the more notable ways that is happening.

Yes, a lot of my peers are irresponsibly spending themselves way into debt in denial of this reality. Of course, they just want to live like their parents. My approach is to ratchet down my living expenses to survive. While this works, it is a continuous reminder of how the system has been stacked against me.

So yes, here I am venting. Here's to hoping more boomers than X-ers go bankrupt in the collapse.; May 24, 2006 5:53 AM
Anonymous said...: ..."So yes, here I am venting. Here's to hoping more boomers than X-ers go bankrupt in the collapse.

"They wouldn't have to bankrupt if they weren't so greedy. They could get a fair, decent price for their homes. The realtor whose "job it is to market the house", also has to have the knowledge to know if he wants the house to sell, it has to be priced competively from the start. He is either ignorant or just too greedy.; May 24, 2006 12:26 PM
Anonymous said...: To Anon Above: or the RE Agent finds an under priced house and buys it, then raises the price to the Comps and sells it for a profit, rather than get the listing. Result; Self-Dealing Realtor price Bubble. Could Happen……..(:

Anyway, on WFLA, 540 AM News @ 9:00am, Orlando, Florida is number 21 on the list of
Housing "unintended consequences" Bankruptcies. Do you have the list Keith?; May 24, 2006 2:21 PM
Anonymous said...: Just came back from Florida ....sooo many houses and incentives from the builders but everyone I talked to who has a house seem to believe thier house is gonna keep going up in value in the next few years, my brother in law believes his homes value will double in three years. I didnt have the heart to "burst his bubble". Besides he probably would not want to believe me any way.; May 24, 2006 3:08 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith,

I just got off of a phone conversation with a seasoned RE Agent here in Downtown, Orlando, Florida.
I asked him if he believed in the “RE Bubble” Theory. He told me, off the record that, if I had asked him 3 months ago, the answer would have been no, there is no bursting bubble. But now it is the end of spring and there are no sales. So, as things look today, something is up, he said.
Additionally, and the shocking thing that he told me was this as his personal observation regarding the RE Bubble. When he is asked to do a comparable to price a new listing for a seller, their office policy is to only go back 6 months in the market history to research similar “Sold’ homes, BECAUSE, last years prices are to HIGH to get an accurate Comparable, and obviously, he does not want to price his new clients home out of the market!

This guy has been in RE for many years, and he works for a big corporate name.

Fasten Your seat belts it’s gonna be a bumpy landing.; May 24, 2006 5:07 PM
Anonymous said...: Boomer/etc.,

It should be office policy for anyone dealing in real estate reality to price a listing based on sales during the previous six months, assuming the subject property conforms to its surroundings. No matter the market's status, the more recent the data, the more accurate. That sounds simple enough, but then try selling a reality-based asking price to an owner: "Well, 3 houses on my street are asking $400,000, and they don't even have a media room or a privacy fence! I think you're short-changing me at a price of $350,000...next!" The agent can waive a bunch of similar SOLD comps at him/her but to no avail. That's when it's time to move on & give a pie-in-the-sky chump the thankless job of listing their house & subsequently hoping for a sucker to come along.

A huge misconception has always been that a house is worth the asking price. Owners see the flyers in their neighbors' yards asking X, Y, or Z, and they're convinced their house is worth as much or more no matter the fact that these prices aren't entertaining offers. The market has a way of working these things out. It is objective, and it wields power enough to make or break anyone attempting to sell anything.; May 24, 2006 8:24 PM
Anonymous said...: YoY is collapsing. I figure the July-September timeperiod will really cause it to crash.; May 25, 2006 2:54 AM
Anonymous said...: http://p088.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=17231.topic

Foreclosures up alot. 25% of the mortgages are ARM's and some people will be looking at 50% greater mortgage payments as their terms change. From there more foreclosures and falling prices. Solid cash is hard to get.; May 25, 2006 3:23 AM
Anonymous said...: BUSH LIED

The amount of money the US government spent on its "strike first" task force is not enough to pay for the trickle of oil coming out of Iraq. It was like the mob offering protection. We were offered protection from WMD's that did not exist.

Islamicist who funded Islamic expansion found a friend:

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0426/dailyUpdate.html; May 25, 2006 3:56 AM
Anonymous said...: This website was pointed out over at Ben's blog. Hugely entertaining for those who OWE NOTHING or watch the collapse with a grin. Not entertaining for the poor souls that are in real trouble and are still borrowing their way deeper. bet a bunch are scams.

This first showed up on Ben's blog and had them ROLTFLTAO:

https://www.prosper.com/public/lend/listing.aspx?listingID=13292

Here are some top picks:

https://www.prosper.com/public/lend/listing.aspx?listingID=15330

https://www.prosper.com/public/lend/listing.aspx?listingID=13817

https://www.prosper.com/public/lend/listing.aspx?listingID=14012

https://www.prosper.com/public/lend/listing.aspx?listingID=14206

This one proves that there are still greater fools out there:

https://www.prosper.com/public/lend/listing.aspx?listingID=14286

And my personal favorite:

https://www.prosper.com/public/lend/listing.aspx?listingID=15126; May 25, 2006 6:32 PM
Anonymous said...: Oops,

Did not see the flipper until after I posted. Anyone want to bet on him?

https://www.prosper.com/public/lend/listing.aspx?listingID=15548; May 25, 2006 6:38 PM
Anonymous said...: Housing is crumbling. It is starting to show up on the crucial Durables and Purchases index's as well. These 2 indicators are the key indicators of economic recession.

Things are gonna get bumpy here on out. Dubs better be thinking about solving that Iraq problem or it will surge the def. to 600-700 billion as tax revenue slows.

Messy, messy.; May 26, 2006 1:26 AM
Anonymous said...: Well, now with yoy down in mud below 1% (and poised to go negative) I wonder where the deniers will try to point next?

The new house prices seem like they are all over the map from month to month. The last YoY decline on that data was Dec 02/03 which is a lot later than I would have expected. Also, May 2005 was $8,000 lower than April 2005 and stayed down near that level for the next couple months until August 2005, so we may not see a YoY decline until August or possibly later.; May 26, 2006 3:38 AM
Anonymous said...: To add to my previous comment, I should add that the median prices this year are not to be taken at face value. The "true" median price of these houses should be anywhere from 10-30K less because of the free upgrades, furnishings, TV, etc. Without them, the only way the price would hold is to have a huge decline in sales, or vice versa.; May 26, 2006 3:40 AM
Anonymous said...: So today, a banker tried to pitch a mortgage to me when I went in to do a routine transaction. After a brief back-and-forth about how I had looked and found nothing I could afford, she recommended I move outside the perimeter (read: outside the city) so I could afford a house. At the moment, I said commuting costs would make that uneconomical. But upon further reflection, I think having a banker effectively tell me to get out of town so the bank could collect origination fees on a financial product says something more profound about our financial system and our society. And to that, it would have been impossible for me to respond at the time; almost as if me and the banker were not even speaking the same language.; May 26, 2006 4:34 AM
Anonymous said...: I have "google alerts" send me the housing bubble stories every morning via email. Just amazing! A couple in Phoenix has their house up for 128 days,not even a nibble. And that with four price reductions! Not even a "terrible" offer, as they put it.
AND THE ARTICLE IS WONDERING WHETHER THE BUBBLE IS ON THE DOWN SIDE !!!
I feel that we will face a slow, drawn out decline. Doom and agony in small drawn out doses.; May 26, 2006 5:35 PM
Anonymous said...: Here's something interesting from matrix.millersamuel.com:

Edward R. Dewey, the former chief economist in FDR’s Department of Commerce developed a chart: “The 18 1/3-Year Cycle in Real Estate Activity, 1795-1958.” In eight 18.3-year cycles over 150 years, Dewey says, “the waves were too clear and too regular to be denied or ignored.”

Dewey wrote that it should be reviewed yearly. But he hasn’t been around to do the job since 1978. Nevertheless, that 150-year chart of real estate cycles has intrigued me since the 1970s when I worked in Morgan Stanley’s real estate investment banking group. So I took a trip down memory lane and projected the 18.3-year cycle from a low point in the early ’50s forward three cycles to a low point around 2007. In other words, a bottom in the real estate market is dead ahead.; May 27, 2006 3:58 AM
Anonymous said...: As evidence the downdraft in housing won't necessarily lead to a drop in prices, Greenspan cited the recent experience in the U.K. and Australia.

"Prices just flattened, and they had bigger booms than the U.S.," Greenspan said.; May 27, 2006 12:51 PM
blogger said...: "Prices just flattened, and they had bigger booms than the U.S.," Greenspan said.

The housing bubble burst and panic hasn't hit the UK or the world yet - and it will. rates are going up, prices are dropping, and away we go

To say it's over, and everyone back in the water, is ingornant of the facts. And the biggest fact is rates going up worldwide. The EU is raising at its next meeting and into the forseeable future, and the UK bank is rumored to be considering a 1/2 point rise in its next meeting. With all loans in the UK being the ARM style, watch out below; May 27, 2006 12:57 PM
Anonymous said...: Some economists are predicting rate cuts beginning the 4Q. If this occurs it will take pressure off of the housing market. See Northern Trust's most recent economic outlook:

http://www.ntrs.com/pws/jsp/display2.jsp?XML=pages/nt/0601/1138283684288_6.xml&TYPE=interior; May 27, 2006 2:54 PM
Anonymous said...: Help!I do not understand property tax. Why do I have to pay to send other people's children to school forever. I never went to public schools in the first place.; May 27, 2006 3:31 PM
Anonymous said...: Check out this TheStreet.com article where one of their analysts was bullish on Beazer Homes and bearish on St. Joes. Some of the responses to his predictions really gave him a figurative wedgie.

http://tinyurl.com/zhocf; May 27, 2006 5:46 PM
Anonymous said...: Here's a guy in Tampa who used to be a drug dealer (in Iowa! Who knew?) and is now a real estate hustler. If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck...

http://tinyurl.com/lwpgo; May 27, 2006 8:08 PM
Anonymous said...: Rate cuts won't take any pressure off housing, they are trashed.; May 27, 2006 8:25 PM
Anonymous said...: Sales are going to dry up

Inventory is going to continue to build

Price reductions are going to become fast and furious as sellers fight over the few remaining qualified buyers in a race to the bottom.

This is going to be a BIG CRASH!; May 28, 2006 8:39 AM
Anonymous said...: Now is the time to

PANIC
PANIC PANIC
PANIC PANIC PANIC
PANIC PANIC PANIC PANIC
PANIC PANIC PANIC PANIC PANIC

Hey what happens to all those folks who are right now in contract and expect to close in the next 30 days or so.

Think about it people; a closing doesn't happen if the mortgage broker fails to deliver the funds to the title company.

The U.S. Gov't just ordered Fannie Mae to STOP lending last week. Mortgage brokers use their own funds to make a few loans then sell those loans to Fannie or Freddie to replentish their bank accounts, so that they can originate new loans.

Its possible that lots of current in-contract sales will never be completed. If you are a seller who is fortunate enought to be in contract right now--- don't count your chickens untill your title company tells you that they received the funds from your buyer and transaction has been closed.; May 28, 2006 9:07 AM
Anonymous said...: Ofheo also ordered the company to limit its mortgage portfolio to the level at the end of 2005, which was $727 billion.

Who is Ofheo?; May 28, 2006 9:40 AM
Anonymous said...: The music just stopped. Did you get a chair?; May 28, 2006 2:13 PM
Anonymous said...: http://tinyurl.com/j4sr8

I don't like to promote the idea than anyone should panic, but I believe this coming fall will be the beginning of the real implosion of the US RE bubble. It is also when the BIG correction will hit equities markets (mid May was a tiny preview). Although there might be some good days in June, esp if the Fed has dovish language, the big bust will come after the BOJ raises rates. The BOJ is reducing exposure to $$ and will raise rates, US and ECB will raise rates, there is a high probability of an oil supply disruption, and any number of factors could trigger a rate shock that will trounce equities and RE markets worldwide. By Sept, real inflation data will be undeniable, the first big wave of foreclosures will hit the comps in the US and the RE market will tank like like it's 1929. Also, don't forget this is an election year and the rethugs are poised to lose the House, which means more TERROR!!! alerts in in advance of election day.

Enjoy your summer and please drive safely!; May 29, 2006 4:58 AM
Anonymous said...: Fannie Mae's investment portfolio most likely includes this woman's paper. No wonder the U.S. Gov't told Fannie Mae NO MORE!!!; May 29, 2006 7:26 PM
Anonymous said...: Lombard Street Research said this week that the US economy had peaked and was tipping into an unstoppable bust. The property market is crumbling - “the real US hard landing starts now”.

Is the US housing market crumbling?; May 30, 2006 2:05 AM
Anonymous said...: Here come the mortgage job layoffs...

1400 layed off (most are telemarketers who pitch mortgage re-fi's)

Click Here; May 30, 2006 2:57 AM
Anonymous said...: 3600 more mortgage related jobs gone:

Three weeks ago, ACC Capital Corp., the Orange-based parent of Ameriquest Mortgage Co., said it would shut all 229 of its retail branches and eliminate 3,800 jobs in a streamlining. ACC was the largest sub-prime lender last year, but its volume is expected to drop significantly this year.

Click Here; May 30, 2006 3:01 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=6975848

EASILY THE BEST ARTICLE WRITTEN ABOUT HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT IN THE US HOUSING MARKET.; May 30, 2006 8:03 AM
Anonymous said...: Copied and reposted for all to see.
---------------------------------------

Bernanke said that in theory there is no limit to how much money the Fed can put into the banking system. Now watch as his theory is tested before our very eyes.

TRUE ENOUGH... BUT

AND IT A REALLY BIG B U T !

The Fed lost control of the GOLD market. The FED and its CB allies are trying to slow the advance of GOLD. From time to time, they will continue to let go of the rope in the tug of war with the market... let it skyrocket up; then yank back with all their might to try to knock the momentum out of this gold freight train. BUT their physical supplies are very limited and shrinking; and many big money player are wise to the paper-gold tricks; and are playing along all-the-while draining the CB-allies of physical.

The jig is up when the CB's are out of gold and lose the dominance of the peto-dollar. [Note: this may happen in the 2nd half of 2006].

When that happens you will see globally held USD $TRILLIONS chase physical PM and other commodities. When this D-Day comes... Gold will trade for $10,000+ UDS per gram. Silver over $100+ USD per gram.

Rumor has it that the FED ordered $2 Trillion printed and warehoused. For what possible purpose would they do this?

ANSWER: To redeem US assets held by the rest of the world when D-Day hits the US Markets and the foreigner's want out. The fed will cash out and make good on all those T-Bills, Stocks, Bonds, MBS's that the foreigner want to cash in... and they will physically ship out by SECURE AIR FREIGHT pallets of $100 dollar bills to foreign CB's.

When the foreigner’s get their hands on these greenbacks, they are going to bid up real THINGS like there is no tomorrow IN THE MOTHER OF ALL BIDDING WARS. Hence the reason I say gold and silver will go far beyond what anyone thinks is remotely possible. $2 Trillion in CASH is just too large a number to really comprehend. This money will never be evenly distributed among the masses; but will be spent by the upper classes of the foreigner’s who hold this CASH.

It is no longer a matter of IF, but WHEN.

Penned by Blogger Zinger on http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/
© 2006 Zinger and placed in the public domain 5-30-2006.
Unedited exact full length copies may be cut and post anywhere on the net or in publications.; May 31, 2006 2:32 AM
Anonymous said...: US is still by far the biggest manufacturing country (and exporter).

Dollar decline is very likely (and this seem to be the policy of the white house). Steady dollar decline should be ok for the US:
- more foreign tourists visiting US
- US tourists travel in US instead going abroad
- US exports go up
- imports do down
=> trade deficit declines

This is already happening (imports go down, exports up).

Oil imports gets more expensive so that is a problem but it is a problem only if US-led global economy is growing strongly. So in effect, it is not that bad problem since it is a sign that things are in relatively good shape.; May 31, 2006 4:33 AM
Anonymous said...: You idiot. The economy is "not" growing strongly, the economy is only creating 50% of the salaried positions it did in 1999. That is pretty poor.

Economic growth is VERY overcaculated right now. My econ adviser thinks the economy has only been truly growing 1.5-2.0 over the last 3 years and the "caculated" growth has been overstated by the government. I bet it is true.; May 31, 2006 5:01 AM
Anonymous said...: I am glad you guys are not angry at boomers any more....
This stuff is amazing.
Be glad you are across the big pond Keith. You are safe.; May 31, 2006 5:32 AM
Anonymous said...: I'd be interested in hearing more about your enlightened econ adviser's theory concerning how the US economy is growing at "only 1.5 to 2". How does he/she know that? Why do you believe him/her vs. believing the government? For such a screwed up lot as the government typically is, it sure can "fix" a bunch of statistics to make all the hell breaking loose look like a victory for itself. I'd really like to know more about this theory though. What/who are your adviser's sources? What liberties are the gov taking with the stats it is producing to show growth upwards of 5%? And why call a guy with a different opinion an idiot?; June 01, 2006 2:11 AM
Anonymous said...: They may be right, after every expansion, they have to recover the Quarter growth rates and see how close they came during those intial estimates.

The truth is, the economy looks like it has been sludging along for 5 years now.; June 01, 2006 3:14 AM
Anonymous said...: It is pretty clear the government puts out bad economic statistics because they /aren't technically lying about it/. In fact compared to their own methods just a few years ago what they are doing is radically different and meant to bias all metrics towards an "everything's OK" signal.

What we have is a gradual replacement of real reporting of data with very questionable determinants that don't mean much, if not the complete opposite of what people expect.

This effects GDP, "productivity growth", jobs figures, recession status, and much more.

Read John William's (free) primers on government economic reports:

http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/bgn/

I have looked further into the fine print of the statistical reports myself and they corroborate everything Williams is saying.

One example: the CPI calculation was re-jiggered in the mid-90s to account for something called the "substitution effect"--which is that when a good becomes more expensive, people substitute inferior goods for it (e.g., steak -> hamburgers).

Philosophically, accounting for this effect would be a switch from measuring the cost of living to the cost of survival. This should be easy (for regular people) to see. I would prefer a CPI metric that tells me whether my standard of living tomorrow will be worse than it is today, at the fault of the government--not whether I'll simply be able to squeak by.

However, it gets worse: when the government did a study to try to find out if the substitution effect was really happening, the results were inconclusive. So what did they do? They changed the CPI calculation anyway--after all, it lowered the inflation reading, which was deemed "too high".; June 01, 2006 4:03 AM
Anonymous said...: Of course substitution is real. When you can't afford to finance a house, you rent. Wehn you can't rent, you move in with relatives. When they kick you out, you sleep in your car. When your car is repo'd, you sleep in an abandoned warehouse. See, no inflation. You gat a problem with that?; June 01, 2006 4:16 AM
Anonymous said...: You idiot. The economy is "not" growing strongly,...."caculated" growth has been overstated by the government. I bet it is true.

I don't understand why you call me idiot if you disagree with me. Frankly, your anonymous "sources" do not sound too convincing.

Anyway, I think your comments tell a lot about you.

We have had strong economic growth for several years now. Even US exports have been growing strongly (unless EU, China, Japan are all involved in this conspiracy and they have been lying about their imports).; June 01, 2006 5:04 AM
Anonymous said...: http://tinyurl.com/pttk7

China, Manufacturing, and the US Dollar

FYI; June 01, 2006 5:11 AM
Anonymous said...: That substition is very real. I practice it myself. The prices keep getting higher and higher (in inflated dollars) and I do not want to keep paying.

Inflation is hitting hard, but they are not measuring it. yesterday I bought drill bits and paid 2-3X what I paid 2 years ago so the cost to make things is up. Aluminum and steel parts are up - and so are the things that are made from them. Gas is up, as is all energy. So is food. The $2.90 bag of Walmart chicken leg quarters that I substitute for steaks is now $4.30. Beer is up in price, even the Busch lite I substitute for Coors lite.

The FB who was barely making his payment before the prices of things he needs to buy increased(like gas, food, etc) is also now facing a higher mortgage bill because of rising rates. He can't refi out the "equity" because the prices are dropping and there are no higher comps. No buyers to sell to.

Bye bye house. This is looking pretty serious nationally for lots of fools who let themselves get into the trap.; June 01, 2006 1:33 PM
Anonymous said...: The boomers aren't that bad. They just actually believe that they are so great, and that's why their house has doubled. They believe they are entitled to the profits, because they are so wonderful. They are going to get hurt, just like everyone else. The real evil ones, are the ones that are selling their own holdings, while talking up the great real estate market.; June 01, 2006 1:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Let's look at another factor beyond the (non-existant, according to the fed) inflation that is driving up interest rates - that is the need to keep selling US dollars to cover the national debt. Here is a link, sorry about the length.

http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1170

We are doing all we can do to want to make other countries punish the dollar. They can do it by trading oil in euros or rubles or gold. They can stop buying dollar debt. Raising the rate of interest is a desperate way to keep selling those dollars.; June 01, 2006 2:02 PM
Anonymous said...: Dear Zinger,

I like your stories. I enjoyed the "Keep" game metaphor the most.

I have lost everything twice (paid cash for 3/2 golf home and everything in it). If you own your home outright, you do not own it. You trade a mortgage or bank owning your home for the insurance company and Taxman owning your home.

Catastrophic Claim? Trade you home Title for a law suite against your insurance company and move into hotels or wherever. My only asset for 5 years has been a law suite. My settlement did not account for the 5 year run up in the value of RE, I was paid in 2001 value.

Anyway I have already lived what every one is afraid of here. I am not afraid and I have become a little smarter. I am a bit of a joker and have fun, but you are right.

Now, I am posting to tell you that I am going to wait, go to a month to month lease, invest in a safe short term something, (rising interest rates) and decide on my action as things progress. No multi unit purchase for me, yet.

Thank you.

PS: I was offered a 125% loan and 1.23 teaser rate for 5 years. he he he

PSS
Thank you Keith also.....; June 01, 2006 2:38 PM
Anonymous said...: Are we headed for the "perfect storm"? The oil cartels are at full production capacity as we enter this years hurricane season. And they have plenty of customers in China / India. And they are moving away from the dollar as the currency to trade oil with. here is an example:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060601/bs_nm/energy_opec_dc

The real estate bubble is being popped by rising interest rates and slowed speculation. The foriegners see the dollar as a risky currency which is declining in value. The fed has to raise the interest to keep selling these risky dollars.

Scary stuff holding your cash reserves in dollars.; June 01, 2006 3:39 PM
The Thinker said...: Can all you gold bulls please take a moment to acknowledge the massive selloff.

I have always said playing gold was risky business and now you see why. Hmm, I guess it really wasnt all that different this time... The more things change, the more they stay the same.; June 01, 2006 3:57 PM
Anonymous said...: GOOD CALL _ BUY GOLD!; June 01, 2006 4:28 PM
Anonymous said...: Don't sell the motorhome, you might need to live in it.; June 01, 2006 4:35 PM
Anonymous said...: "Boomer/Bubblesitter/renter/whoissoscrewed said...
Dear Zinger,

I like your stories. I enjoyed the "Keep" game metaphor the most.

I have lost everything twice (paid cash for 3/2 golf home and everything in it). If you own your home outright, you do not own it. You trade a mortgage or bank owning your home for the insurance company and Taxman owning your home."

Boy, you are sooooooo right on those two counts.
1.My dear deceased daddy use to say:"Insurance premimums are money you hope you can look back at the end of your life and say 'That money was wasted'". The idea being that something bad happened to you and yours to make you have to file a claim to recover the loss.
Now days, filing the claim IS the bad thing! It IS the loss! Loss of time, sleep, mental stability, income, ad infinitum. Also been through that once. The lawyers are the only one's who win (get paid). May all insurance companies rot in hell!
2. The taxman dosen't giveith (a damn,) but he sure takeith away.
When the property values tank, don't even expect the property tax bill to go anywhere but up. Its called a millage increase! A lot of homeowners that own free and clear are going to run head on into the first commandment: "Thou shalt not never, ever expect your elected/appointed 'tax and spending' majesties to ever,EVER,suffer."
After all you want good(fill in the line),don't you?! Another of daddys sayings:"Fill in the line, BUY the lie". It can be better roads,police protection,education,government,your choice,fill it in! Making more money only makes you better paid than yesterday, NOTHING MORE! Buying the lie makes it a lot easier when the tax goons send the sheriff to kick you out of your home because you couldn't pay what they decided that you "OWE" them.
Here in Taxsylvania, (largest single employer: Wal Mart) its going to be brutal. According to a recent AARP study, PA has the largest property tax rate(per capita) in the nation. And its climbing, as the housing/economy collapse ripples outward from the epi-centers. Everything is slowly going up in price. People are cutting back,'substituting", or doing without. Except of course our wonderful governments. Did I mention the First Commandment???

God bless and help us all!; June 01, 2006 4:49 PM
Anonymous said...: Can all you gold bulls please take a moment to acknowledge the massive selloff.

----------------------------------
Short-term trading position: covered shorts, reestablished longs at daily fibonacci support, with stop at AM low.

Intermediate term: Canadian juniors up 300-500%

Long-term: bullion - basis 280-300 USD

Your question/point?; June 01, 2006 7:11 PM
The Thinker said...: hu?; June 01, 2006 8:31 PM
Anonymous said...: Dear Stuck in so Pa.
Your Daddy was a very smart man.
One in a million.
I am glad he taught you well and you listened to him. I found out the hard way. I will form an LLC as ZingerBlogger instructed.

Up Ward and On ward.
:>}; June 02, 2006 12:56 AM
Anonymous said...: earlier we had RE trolls telling prices never go down et cetera.

Now we have gold trolls telling everybody to buy gold, it never goes down. I have a message to you: Nobody cares! Go and buy all the gold you can but leave us alone!; June 02, 2006 3:31 AM
Anonymous said...: I Care :); June 02, 2006 4:33 AM
Anonymous said...: Hey Anon,

What gold troll said prices never go down and what post are you talking about?; June 02, 2006 4:34 AM
Anonymous said...: Gold will never be allowed to go up to high, so everyone should sell it back to the CBs now because they have drained their physicial bullion reserves by more than half over the past 10 years promoting the STRONG DOLLAR POLICY.

They will dump the rest on the market if that's what it takes to drive the price down and con the public into selling the bullion back to them.

SO GOLD IS GOING DOWN!!!!

UNLESS: China, global hedge funds, Russia, and wealthy investors step in to take advantage of the fire sale.

SO THE ONLY REAL QUESTION IS:
How low, and for how long can the CB's use paper derivatives to keep a lease on the POG?; June 02, 2006 4:45 AM
Anonymous said...: i don't know anything.

i make 150k+

about to sign a lease for half a house for $700/month

total expenses ~2.5k/month

all else goes to gold and silver

i'm very very very scared and may be moving to a warm agrarian place (but no jobs there).; June 02, 2006 7:08 AM
Anonymous said...: MAY JOB GROWTH UNDERWHELMS EVEN MOST PESSIMISTIC OF ECONOMISTS

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B20C2FDA1%2D5274%2D488C%2D8B35%2D0857C403BE76%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

75,000 jobs. A rounding error in the BLS's heavily-massaged, seasonally-adjusted, +-300,000 90% confidence interval scheme.

Now everyone will see just how utterly based on housing this economy is, and just how hard it will fall when the collapse picks up speed.; June 02, 2006 2:47 PM
Anonymous said...: Gold bullies are funny, they are just like the real estate agents. Please, save us from that bs. I don't want to read about gold on every housing blog. Yes, buy gold, gun, secure water supply and move to midwest. Just stop annoying people about gold!

Let's agree that it is the best investment ever, no risk, goes only up and everybody should buy it (I'm sure you can borrow arguments from RE people..perhaps you are former RE). "They don't make anymore gold", "people want to own gold",...

Anyway, case closed, go harassing other people.; June 02, 2006 3:55 PM
Anonymous said...: Gold bullies are funny,

Dollar bullies are even funnier.

This is the housing blog with ATTITUDE.

If you don't like it here. Get lost!; June 02, 2006 5:02 PM
Anonymous said...: I was just buying some gold coins (with cash). The old man at the store window told me about a guy that was selling his houses in Boston and buying about 1/2M$ in gold each time he sold a house. It was about 2 years ago.

Now that was one smart dude.; June 02, 2006 6:08 PM
Anonymous said...: They don't make any more gold so I bought $100,000 worth of gold coins. Prices can't go down since they never have. Gold only go up!; June 02, 2006 6:44 PM
Anonymous said...: So since they don't make any more gold, what is the best way to buy it?

There is a dealer in town that sells coins for cash, no sales tax. Is there a benefit of one coin over the other? Eagles, rands, leafs? I just got a few of each and am leaning toward the leafs now. Opinions?; June 02, 2006 8:13 PM
Anonymous said...: Washington, DC Area DHS spending reduced by 40%. Please share your thoughts and insight how this will impact area housing prices withing the next 12 to 24 months. Thank you.; June 02, 2006 8:51 PM
Anonymous said...: I'm following several investment boards and gold (and precious metals in general) is a frequent topic there. Basically, gold and PM (at least before the recent hike/bubble) is seen as a decent diversification in total portfolio.. However, (as usually in every issue) there are also several drawbacks and risks in it. Moreover, there are many ways to protect against the fall of dollar of which gold/PM is only one.

It is funny that some people are joking about RE bullies ("house prices never go down" et cetera) but they themselves behave just like RE bullies. Can't you see the irony and arrogance?

I don't want to store gold in my freezer (maybe that's why I'm not a congressman) and I think the PM stocks are overvalued now. Once China's economy stops growing so strongly, PM stocks (and probably gold as well) comes down fast.
In recent days, many emerging markets (Saudi-Arabia, India, Russia..not sure about China) have collapsed by 25-30%. I think Saudi market has come down by 50%.

Yes, I definitely believe that dollar is going to decline. Consensus seem to be 25-35% gradual decline in few years. At least this seem to be the goal of the White House. On the other hand, EU does not want this to happen so perhaps they counterstrike and devaluate euro. I don't know what will happen then. EU exports are dead if dollar declines so much.

30% of my investments are in Euro and the rest are well diversified in US and int's market. That's good enough for me. I'm just amused to see statements like "gold never goes down".. I have heard them before and I thought members in this board should know this.; June 02, 2006 11:25 PM
Anonymous said...: http://losangeles.craigslist.org/cas/167346597.html

If you thought real estate agents were industry whores...turns out you were right!!!; June 03, 2006 12:56 AM
Anonymous said...: If the economy is so good, why is my middle-aged, well-qualified husband having a hard time finding a permanent engineering job with benefits ect, for the salary he is currently making? Everyone is using temporary workers as much as possible- not to mention outsourcing. When Ardent took over a hospital system in Albuquerque, one of the first things they did, was get rid of the pension- COMPLETELY. This of course, made all the nurses with 15+ years at their jobs, leave. Then they could hire new nurses for lower wages. Those older workers had been loyal, and worked hard, and the rug was pulled out from under them. I was one of the temps, filling in, so I heard the story first hand. It's criminal the way companies are being run today.
I am waiting to see all the immigrants out on the streets hungry, when there is no more easy money in housing construction. I lived in Massachusetts during the late 80's and have not forgotten the abandoned constuction sites. People living in RV's without heat. Lots of my friend's families on food stamps.
History repeats.; June 03, 2006 2:29 AM
Anonymous said...: To LAFriends regarding housing statistics from NAR & the increase in non-MLS web listings:

As a realtor/appraiser, I can tell you that MLS transactions (sales) represent a true market. Private sales, FSBOs & the like, while they very well may be arms length transactions, are more difficult to prove with regard to legitimacy. Therefore, MLS data is more representative of the market. Plus, listing on the MLS provides exposure. MLS listings are much more scrutinized because represented buyers are truly shopping the market, and that includes FSBOs. On the contrary, John & Sally down the street might be enticing the Joneses with a wink & a nod that they will give the Joneses a great deal on there house. The Joneses really need more space, and love the location. They accept & over-pay by 20%. That's what happens when you don't shop. Now don't get me wrong, there are FSBO deals for certain, but there are just as many if not more over-price houses attempting to go FSBO as there are represented by agents.

A major statistic that is probably the most beholden to the MLS is DOM. It goes back to exposure. Motivated buyers are working with agents by & large. It isn't fair to calculate a FSBO's DOM, nor would it even be accurate because the MLS is the way to sell a house as well as shop for a house.

As far as the question about the NAR being the authority with respect to housing statistics, who else is going to do it? The FDA? Seriously, who else should be gathering this info? Respectfully,; June 03, 2006 3:30 AM
Anonymous said...: I am waiting to see all the immigrants out on the streets hungry, when there is no more easy money in housing construction

Illegals get welfare checks so they don't have any problem. (and often several checks as they have many identities..forged SSN card costs $15 and drivers license $20 in LA).; June 03, 2006 3:58 AM
Anonymous said...: From what my mother tells me, California is a very generous welfare state (she lives there). In other parts of the country it's very hard to get welfare, foodstamps, section 8 housing ect. And i don't know anyone who's been able to truely live on these "benefits". Everyone that I've known in this situation, has been selling drugs on the side. If the illegals are afraid of being deported, they are not going to seek help. That's what is happening with all the political debate. People are getting afraid.; June 03, 2006 2:09 PM
Anonymous said...: What are you talking about? Illegals know very well that they are allowed to get welfare checks (no background or immigration investigation are allowed). Jose can get WICs as "Jose", "Manual" and "Rodrigo". btw, one study in 1994 in one congressional district showed that 4,000 illegals had been voting.

This truly is a sick system.; June 03, 2006 4:05 PM
Anonymous said...: How to lowball a seller...

1. Put out lowball offers on multiple homes. If one bites you're ready to start dealing. Chances are if you put in a lowball offer all sellers will return with a number they feel comfortable with. (Which probably won't be close to your price) When they do show them what their neighbor is willing to sell for. There's a good chance when they see the neighbors number they'll try to go lower. This is the reverse of a bidding war. ;-)

2. The second way to lowball a seller requires two buyers working together. The buyer that does not want the house to be lowballed submits a REALLY low offer. What this does is shock the seller into a new realty of what their house is worth. If the seller accepts the offer you "gracefully" try to bow out but, while doing so have buyer number two submit an offer at the same price. The seller will forget about buyer one and sell to buyer two. If the owners don't accept the offer you play with them a little then get out. At this point you "softened" the seller up to accepting a lower offer. This is where buyer two comes in knowing how low the seller will go. ;-)

*The second technique is something only buyers can do together (not agents) and it won't make friends if people find out about what your doing. So don't ever tell people how you got the house for the price you did.; June 04, 2006 12:40 AM
Anonymous said...: Any of you guys seen "Inconvenient Truth" yet?

eh, save us from this Micheal Moore like crap.; June 04, 2006 1:54 AM
Anonymous said...: Phoneix and Tempe ... half off!; June 05, 2006 11:49 PM
The Thinker said...: Now that the gold speculative bubble has fizzled out, anyone care to guess what the next investment that "never goes down" will be?; June 06, 2006 5:18 PM
Anonymous said...: I am not wealthy but I bought more gold coins yesterday. Now I am/will accumulate cash. It is a lot easier when there is NO DEBT to pay off.

The darn market is way to hard for me to trade. Got into a nice little bio - EMIS. Maybe if things work out I will get back into synthetic fuel with SYNM.; June 06, 2006 9:49 PM
Anonymous said...: Check out the staging job in this kitchen

http://tinyurl.com/r9p9o; June 06, 2006 11:28 PM
Anonymous said...: A half million dollars for that dump?; June 07, 2006 5:18 AM
Anonymous said...: "For Sale With Owner." Does that mean the owner is included? Shouldn't we get to see a photo of him or her before purchasing?; June 07, 2006 6:54 AM
Anonymous said...: "A half million dollars for that dump?"

Exactly. Don't people realize that $1/2M will build and furnish a really really nice house on a nice piece of land - anywhere but in bubble areas. i would say that location really DOES matter. Locate in a place where you can afford to live comfortably - on balance. Ya'll should have seen the postcard sunset we were watching from my rear porch yesterday. No other houses visible or obstructing the view, just treeline 1/4 mi beyond a farm field. Keep LA, OC, SF, and the rest of bubble land.; June 07, 2006 1:24 PM
Anonymous said...: A poll of Los Angeles homebuyers indicated that the buyers expected, on average, that their new homes would increase in value by 22% per year for the next 10 years. (The Economist)

WOW THAT MEANS THE 2 BEDROOM SHITBOX AROUND THE CORNER FROM ME WILL BE SELLING FOR 5 MILLION IN 2016. I BETTER JUMP IN!!!; June 07, 2006 5:05 PM
Anonymous said...: Saw this on Yahoo news for FNM:

"The misconduct of Fannie's management warrants assiduous attention because financial market participants believe that the U.S. Treasury would come to its aid if it could not meet its obligations (due to, say, internal control problems or imprudent risk management)," Thomas wrote in the memo.

"This perception could result in a financial bailout that could make the $125 billion savings and loans package look like chump change," he said.

Bailout???!!! This is a good topic.; June 07, 2006 6:28 PM
Anonymous said...: I am now reading more and more about lawsuits and cancellations based on lousey quality. There are lawyers who are jumping on this like stink on sh*t. It seems kinda strange that with the high prices the HBs were getting that they would scrimp on quality. I wonder how many houses were wired with thinner copper wire to save a few bucks? The desperate FBs are looking for a way to get out and the lawyers are jumping in as if they are their saviour.

The sheeple that bought these cookie cutter houses are doubly screwed. Not only are they ugly and too close to the next house, but they have poor quality to boot. Must be hard to sell those dogs when the word gets out about how bad they were built. Oops, make that triple screwed because the adjustable payment is rising.

The renters (have nots) who were laughed at by the FBs (haves) may have the last laugh.; June 08, 2006 12:55 PM
Anonymous said...: This is a Copy of a New Condo Advertisement. This new community opens Orlando, today. The Prices are proped up by these incentives.

Incentives and Living Free and Easy For 12 to 20 Months Explained

All Realtors, Banks, and Mortgage Brokers are Welcome

The Buyer will receive the following in the form of Credits, Cash back and
or a reduction in price equal to**
"One Years Cost of Ownership From the Seller at Closing"

1.) 12 Months of Mortgage Interest Credit or Cash Back**
2.) 12 Months of Real Estate Taxes Credit or Cash Back**
3.) 12 Months of Condominium Association Fee Credit or Cash Back**

See Example Below

Example of Calculating Credit**
"Remember You can use any Bank or Mortgage Company so they
determine the amount of your initial investment"

1.) 12 Months of Mortgage Interest Paid Calculated as follows
- 80% of Purchase price multiplied by 7%
- example purchase price = $200,000
- 80% of $200,000 = $160,000
- 7% of $160,000 = $11,200
$11,200 = Total Mortgage Payment Credit or Cash Back

2.) 12 Months of Real Estate Taxes
- estimated taxes of 1.5% of purchase price
- $200,000 purchase price multiplied by 1.5% = $3,000
$3,000 = Total Real Estate Taxes Credit or Cash Back

3.) 12 Months of Condominium Association Fee
- on the Churchill the Monthly Condo Fee = $234.87
- 12 months Condo fee equals $234.87 multiplied by 12 = $2,818
$2,818 = Total Condominium Fee Credit or Cash Back

Total Credit to buyer = $17,018
1.) $11,200 Mortgage Credit
2.) $3,000 Credit to pay Real Estate Taxes
3.) $2,818 Credit to pay Condo Fee
Total Credit = $17,018

Additionally Investors can collect rent at a conservative estimate of $800
per month and use 12 months of rent collected totaling $9600 to pay 6 or
more months on Year 2 expenses.

This all adds up to Living Free and Easy for 12 to 20 Months

** Since the amount of the credit is so generous the manner in which it is
distributed will be determined by the lender of the buyers choice. Once
the total amount of the credit is calculated that amount will be distributed
as a credit to closing cost, a price reduction and or cash back.

$ Incentives Living Free $; June 08, 2006 3:28 PM
Anonymous said...: Fannie and Freddie downgraded by Merrill Lynch...; June 08, 2006 3:42 PM
Anonymous said...: I just came from the new 350 unit Del Mar station Archstone apartments. Tiny sh*tholes are $2-$3000 a month and all sold out. So much for rents not following RE prices. I wish I would have kept my house :(

I loose. If you are new to this blog, get out now while you still can. Keep your home.; June 08, 2006 10:51 PM
Smart Grid blogger said...: News Alert for Real Estate investors and home buyers in New Jersey !!!

Please read:

Monmouth/Ocean County, NEW JERSEY: Updates on Real estate mogul Solomon Dwek Federal Fraud case; June 09, 2006 4:23 PM
Anonymous said...: This is from Marketbeat on Wall Street Journal Online today...and no, those debt-to-income ratio percentages are not typos. GODDAMN!!! Are we going to have a freefall economy or what when this house of cards collapses???

------------------------------
"The Federal Reserve's quarterly flow-of-funds data was released yesterday (it was a bit of a big day, so MarketBeat apologizes for not getting to it), and the soundness of the corporate sector's balance sheet continues to contrast with the unbalanced situation for consumers. The debt-to-net-worth ratio for corporations remained at 62.6%, which is a 32-year-low, according to Merrill Lynch (for these tables, go to the Federal Reserve's flows page here, and click on "balance sheet tables.") By contrast, households' debt-to-net-worth ratio was a record high of 21.8% in the first quarter, and the debt-to-income ratio reached a new all-time high of 131.1%, from 129.5% in the fourth quarter.

It means people continue to spend more than they're making, and those expenses are being paid off through leverage -- more loans, more mortgages, and more credit-card debt. Between 2000 and the first quarter of 2006, consumers' debt rose 66%, while disposable income rose just 29%. One component of that, mortgage debt, rose 88% over the same time period. "This [debt-to-income] metric first crossed the 100% barrier in the fourth quarter in 2000 and has managed to do something that has never been done before, which is to rise 30 percentage points over a five-year time span," wrote Merrill Lynch's North American economist David Rosenberg, in a comment today. "What took 15 years to accomplish, from 1985 to 2000, and over 30 years before that, we did in the grand total of five years."; June 10, 2006 1:47 AM
Anonymous said...: what strange place is this...
... am I dead??

No, I think you got lost in the HP Blog on your way to the s and m, snuff blogs.
Go back to your sicko sights.; June 10, 2006 2:26 PM
Anonymous said...: Dear Keith,
I am doing everything right. I am looking for a house that has been on the market for a long time, checking the tax records for flippers, etc. I target houses to buy that have been purchased by the sellers way before 2000, and plan to offer 70% of the “appraised Value”, and/or buy a fixer upper, to build in a cushion of 30% in case of a drop or pop.
I can tell you for a certainty, the flippers, speculators are still working strong in Orlando Florida. There is a group that has bought homes on speck for 20 years in PA moving their spotters into central Florida, as a new market expansion, as I type this. Every time my research puts me to the point of wanting to meet the listing agent to make an offer, IF I can get a call back from the listing Realtor, I am scooped. I am third generation from Downtown Orlando, and I am aggravated to death. Just want a place to live.; June 10, 2006 7:57 PM
Anonymous said...: bubblesitter,

Its way too early to expect to find distressed sellers willing to sell at a 30% discount. Patience, my friend, will be rewarded. The average home seller does not yet understand the danger that's lurking -- all the rocks have been hiddden by the rising tide for so long, they've forgotten they exist.

This link, from an experienced investor, says this year and next will still be a selling opportunity. Buying time doesn't arrive until RE becomes a dirty word (08 or later).

http://www.safehaven.com/article-5328.htm; June 11, 2006 12:45 AM
Anonymous said...: Buying time doesn't arrive until RE becomes a dirty word (08 or later).

http://www.safehaven.com/article-5

Good STuff, Nice Graph, I needed that. Thanks.; June 11, 2006 2:13 PM
Anonymous said...: Thanks to all the regular posters on this blog!
I have been reading this blog for over a year now. I find it very informative. I try to talk to my friends about the issue and most are still very much in denial about the housing bubble/bust and the impending recession. It's refreshing to be a part of a group with forsight. I visit daily to attain information that is not discussed in the MSM and to be a part of a group that is grounded. Thank you sane people!!!; June 12, 2006 12:09 AM
Anonymous said...: Keirh,
Can you provide me with a blog that has RE info on the NC coastal areas?
Bill; June 12, 2006 11:07 AM
Anonymous said...: PLEASE SMACK ME

I just sold my house in AZ and I am thinking of buying another one in LAS Vegas. Can somebody pound the shit out of betweeen my ears.; June 12, 2006 9:17 PM
Anonymous said...: Here is an interesting ad on Craigs List Los Angeles. Anyone want to respond to this? Yes, I will refer to:

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

http://tinyurl.com/d8q6j; June 12, 2006 9:57 PM
Anonymous said...: 3rd best year? Not even close. Whoever wrote that, should be ashamed. Big misleading lies in that POS.; June 12, 2006 10:26 PM
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Anonymous said...: Sorry about the long link. I found this on Yahoo...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060612/bs_ft/fto061220061742022646

You have to read the discussions at the end of the article. There are some good comments. One is #6. It states that the author's org is highly funded by the NAR. Looks like the MSM is digging their own credibility grave by publishing this kind of info.

Maybe a good topic - Information wars.; June 13, 2006 12:46 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith,

Here is something that you may want to blog on.

http://www.spp.gov/

What are the implications? Is this part of the grand scheme? Housing / economic implications?

Is the "Amero" as a currency on the horizon? Is the EU vs the AU coming?; June 13, 2006 1:56 PM