May 27, 2006

Virginia: This is what a housing panic looks like




Classic rush for the exits... Houses, tulip bulbs, pets.com stock, it's all the same thing when the music stops and the Ponzi scheme ends...

Thanks HP'er powerlines for the image.

Amazing.

133 comments:

crispy&cole said...

No bubble here. Move along...

Anonymous said...

it's a housing panic!

Bake McBride said...

It's going to get worse & worse as mortgages adjust upward. The people that have put their home on the market probably see what's coming....wait until the others become aware of it.

Noodles said...

Not in a panic YET up here in Monterey but not doing a "FrankXei" and his "My S.Ca home value has soared!!"

Anyways, checked the wind and decided to sell, wish I had done it sooner but that's all hindsight.

Undercut my compitition by about $30k-$50k, got 14 calls for today!!! Not screwing anyone, throwing in wash/dryer/lawn/sprinkler system/rebarb foundation(for earthquakes...I'm in California)water softner and property/city taxes paid through October.

People need to lower their so-called expectations. Every house should not go up $100k every year, that's ridiculous, but I must admit the flippers up here are holding strong check it out on yahoo real estate for 93901 and 93927 zips

Dogcrap Green said...

And now a report from ground zero.

I spent a few years knocking down houses in places like Falls Church. real Estate has exploded to thepoint to where folks with a ranch house on a uarter acer were being offer $700,000 for their hose. The buyer would then knock the house down and build a mansion.

It's hard to call it a panic when 90% of the people are sitting on 500,000 in equity. Will prices drop? I think so. I Fairfax a condo can sell for $700,000 a town house $1.5 million. But most property owners look at the price htey bought, then look at the current price - THEY MADE MONEY AND ARE MAKING MONEY AS FAR AS THEY ARE CONCERN!!!!

THERE IS NO PANIC SELLING

in fact your post are becoming indication of Panic day tradeers of homes that have been left out.

Pheonix has risen inprice since you sold

Washington is up since you sold

Michigian is up since you sold.

Kieth you lost 6% real estate commisions, plus another 3% or so - not the end of the world.

You might lose 20%, you might break even.

Call yourself a loser and just move on

Anonymous said...

"Call yourself a loser and just move on "

Why can't we be friends? Nothing goes up in price forever. This is clearly a mania.

foobeca said...

dogcrap:

A lot of people feel wealthy in the middle of a bubble. The fact of the matter is that few people are truly willing and able to pay $500k-100k for a condo or ranch house. Right now, easy, cheap and creative credit allows anyone who can fog up a mirror to pay $500k-$1mil for a house. Don't expect that to last forever.

I don't think you'll have panic selling just like there was no panic selling in the dot com bust in 2000. It took a few months for people to realize that their stocks were down a bit, but thought "oh well, it's just a temporary setback. It'll go back up." Then a year later people were like, "crap, I've really lost a lot of money now. I don't think it can go down much further though."

Then in 2002, the sheeple said to themselves, "stocks suck! I'm selling. It'll never go up again." Then stock prices started to go back up again.

For the stock market, it took about 2 years to hit bottom and for the housing market which is a much more illiquid market, it could take 5-7 years.

Anonymous said...

Warren Buffet Famous Saying. . .

The reason I am so rich is because I sold too soon!. . .need I say more?

Mark said...

This blog can now consider its work done - . . Barrons Today called the end of the housing bubble, and they called the end of the internet bubble in January 2000. . .nice work everyone.

Osman said...

Those are some scary numbers, certainly but not a surprise. The areas of greatest speculative activity will likely feel the strongest slowing.

Keith, I was thinking of your bullishness on Gold and other commodities when I came across this piece by Jeremy Siegel. Funny, I wonder why you didn't post about it?

He writes, don't become too enthusiastic about commodities. When everyone is talking about any asset, as they are now about gold, silver, and other commodities, it is an excellent sign that prices have gone too high. The bulls maintain that the world economy is strong and China has an insatiable demand for oil and other industrial metals to feed its manufacturing base. But commodity prices peaked a quarter century ago amid very similar talk of worldwide shortages, but then suffered a twenty year bear market.

The long-term trend of commodity prices relative to other assets is downward. Better extraction processes, cheaper substitutes, and incentives to economize on high-priced resources put a lid on long-term prices. Don't commit your investment dollars to what will be viewed years from now as a top of the commodity price bubble.

foobeca said...

Osman:

All markets go in cycles. There was a commodity bull market from 1965-1980 and a bear market from 1980-2000.

For the stock market, the Dow went from 1000 in 1965 to 875 in 1982. Basically went nowhere for 17 years. The bull market lasted from 1982-2000 in which the Dow went from 800 to 11000. I would expect the Dow to go nowhere or down for at least the next decade. Stocks are historically overpriced right now-they are trading at 20x earnings.

If you go look at the charts in gold right now, you get a classic double-bottom.

The RE market also moves in cycles. The next 5-7 years will be flat or falling for most markets. After that, it'll go back up again and the cycle will repeat itself.

Anonymous said...

Hey Dogcrap Green, what if no one else buys a home in Pheonix ever again? I mean it's possible, it's hotter than hell, all the RE jobs will be gone by Christmas, there will be over 100k homes for sale by Christmas, and it's an ugly horrible place!

I say within a years time the median price for a home in Phoenix will be 150k, yea that right! And there will be no buyers, none at all.

Chris G said...

It's hard to call it a panic when 90% of the people are sitting on 500,000 in equity.

That percentage is way, way, way too high. You are also assuming that those with all of that equity didn't take out home equity loans or HELOCs to buy a bunch of crap.

People who bought a 3/1 ARM in 2003 will start to panic as their rates reset (if you look at the mortgage chart for that time, there was a huge dip on interest rates in June of that year). Then they will be eager to sell. What good is all of that equity going to do when you can't make your monthly payment?

Anonymous said...

Osman,

As someone who has a smaller postition in commodities, and a larger position in real estate than is probably wise, I thought I'd offer a researched technical analysis counterpoint to your post.

Please read this article and then decide where the real bubble is :)

http://tinyurl.com/orka5

Anonymous said...

home available might be up in DC but the prices are not yet dropping which means most of those selling are not in a rush otherwise prices would already be dropping. The signs are there for a burst but until the price drops the rest is just precursors but do not mean much.

Anonymous said...

home available might be up in DC but the prices are not yet dropping which means most of those selling are not in a rush otherwise prices would already be dropping. The signs are there for a burst but until the price drops the rest is just precursors but do not mean much.

Anonymous said...

They are falling. See through the lags.

panicearly said...

at these prices phx needs 40,000 new suckers!

new 200 Mbps BROADBAND over POWER LINES said...

After the Housing Bubble.... investors will go back to buying stocks... using gaind from real estate market...imho

new 200 Mbps BROADBAND over POWER LINES said...

Christopher Thornburg, senior economist at UCLA's Anderson School of Management, offers his perspective on whether the recent cooling trend in residential real estate indicates an imminent bubble burst or just a lull in California's otherwise booming housing market in this edition of the Economics Roundtable at the University of California, San Diego.

Anonymous said...

I have no idea why anyone would live in Phoenix. Gonna be as close to a ghost town as one can get in present day america.

Anonymous said...

"home available might be up in DC but the prices are not yet dropping which means most of those selling are not in a rush otherwise prices would already be dropping."

No. But the longer they avoid the rush more cut-throat it will be
on the way down.

Anonymous said...

Dogcrap, you are the man. Keep up the good work putting Keith in his place. What a tool you are Keith...you really know nothing.

Los Angeles Friends In Deed said...

foobeca wrote:
"Right now, easy, cheap and creative credit allows anyone who can fog up a mirror to pay $500k-$1mil for a house. Don't expect that to last forever."

foobeca, your comment about how easy it was for people get credit, reminds me of a recent documentary I saw regarding identity theft and fraud. In the documentary they showed how crooks can lie on an application to get credit cards or other loans. And in the case of them doing it with a stolen identity, their is no repercusion to their own identity. They are damaging someone elses identity.

This same topic has come up in cases where realtors or mortgage brokers manipulate buyers into applying for a loan, to take a kind of loan that is beyond their means or that will cause the buyer to eventual tumble under the terms of the loan. They can do this by entering bogus income level, arranging to have or thriough various kinds of pressure, have an appraiser appraise the real estate higher than its actual value and/or both, and more. There have been many reports of these kind of things through the FBI, and news reports by real estate appraisers.

These kind of things, going uncheck can cause the mania to go further than it may have gone if the legal system police took action years ago, perhaps even before it became main stream news.

And this whole situation is remenicent of the fiasco with one of Bush's brothers and the Savings And Loan going bankrupt.

BTW, the documentary saw stated that Texas is THE hot bed for "Identity Theft" taking place. And Texas was the hotbed for the Saving's And Loan bankruptcy's.

There have been many reporting the Bush connection to the Real Estate Bubble. I have a hunch that the massive blow out of that behemouth Real Estate bubble will seek tax payers to pay for something. However, under the current economic situation with unprecendented levels of deficit spending by the US government, there may just be nothing more to give. And that perhaps will be the signal for runaway inflation or a massive depression, the likes of what took place in the late 1920's.

Los Angeles Friends In Deed

keith said...

"Anonymous said...
Dogcrap, you are the man. Keep up the good work putting Keith in his place. What a tool you are Keith...you really know nothing. "

Uh, actually, my case is supported by the facts. Dogcraps is supported by, well, it's not

Osman said...

Thanks for the technical analysis commentry anon and the comments on cycles foobeca.

While I'm not a technical analyst nor do I claim much understanding of it, I do find that approach interesting. Drawing technical analyses while ignoring company fundamentals though... well, that just never made sense to me.

With that said ,I know substantial wealth has been created through technical analysis alone.

If the dollar continues its slide, perhaps gold and other commodities will continue their upward movement. But with all the attention gold has been getting, how much of that news is already priced in? Its widely expected that the dollar will continue to slide. That strongly suggests the trading value of gold already reflects the pessimism about the dollar.

mr. smith said...

home available might be up in DC but the prices are not yet dropping which means most of those selling are not in a rush otherwise prices would already be dropping.

Sorry to disagree.

I live in VA and follow the RE market pretty closely...and those PRICE REDUCED signs are going up all over the place.

Lots of houses are failing to sell and failing to rent- they are just sitting there like mausoleums.

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