Skyrocketing inventory, plummeting sales, and stubborn sellers. When the dam breaks, it's every man for himself... Econ 101, and you can't fight it...
Home sales fall as home listings rise
Resales across the Valley are down 50 percent from a year ago.
At the same time, the number of homes for sale hit an all time high in April. Still home prices are holding their own. What does this all say about metropolitan Phoenix's housing market? It's definitely slowing but the market isn't bottoming out.
Resales through April plummeted from last year's record, according to Arizona State University's report issued Thursday. But existing home sales are only slightly off 2004's pace for the same timeframe.The number of homes for sale Valleywide hit 38,000 in April up 2,000 from March. But still real estate analysts say that's not an outrageous supply of homes for sale. They say the supply is bigger in Las Vegas and San Diego.
May 12, 2006
Supply, meet demand. Good. Now meet your new friend Mr. Price.
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34 comments:
FIRST!
Outside of the most bubbly markets, there's still no evidence that we're going to see any kind of meaningful decline in prices. Sure. Phoenix, Miami, Vegas condos -- but SFH in SF, NYC, LA, there's still reason to believe you see stagnation but not a decline. Jury's still out.
It's off the market!! WOW! The most beautiful home on my block in east Mesa is off the market. The most incredible re modeling job. Siding , all new roof , appliances , granite tops , very , very nice. Built in 1985 1300 SQ FT . They've been trying to sell for 265K since Jan. No takers. Place has had 4 owners since 04 . Maybe more. Flip 'n flip ! Somebody is stuck! 3 more around the corner no where near as nice. 230K and 225K 240K
This is getting to be very entertaining.
I started looking for answers after my neighbor sold for 255K in mid 05. I was so blown away! That's when I found this blog. Nice reality check. Love HP !!
"Stagnation is decline idiot."
I understand the argument you're making, (even though you didn't make it). Stagnation will represent a decline in real values, depending, of course, on the future rate of inflation. Check. Stagnation will place tremendous pressure on recent buyers who used risky mortgages. Check. This could lead to defaults. Check.
However, the question of whether you see a nominal ($) decline in real estate prices, or just a stagnation/real decline, is an important one. For one thing, if you don't see a dollar decline, then people won't end up upside down (home value < mortgage). That's because with stagnation, the home value declines no more than the real value of your debt. This is a vital consideration, generally overlooked by the "Stagnation is decline" argument that has been posted on this blog before, perhaps by you, perhaps by someone else. Secondly, if you are renting and bubble-sitting, your decision to buy will be significantly affected by your expections for the future -- if you think nominal prices are going to be flat, you're more likely to buy sooner rather than wait for a pullback. If you put 10% down, you won't see your equity vanish.
Who's the idiot now, idiot? Or can you come up with an argument that is a little more intelligent than "Stagnation is decline idiot." By the way, learn to use a comma properly... when you insult someone from behind your safe veil of internet anonymity, coward.
Bravo, last anon. Good slapdown.
keith - stealing articles from ben's blog now???
The Housing Bubble
all the bubble articles that are out there, and you have to post the same thing Ben does......just a few hour later.........interesting
nice frey......he probably gets his gold stuff here too:
http://moneyandmetals.blogspot.com/
Does this blog represent a realistic sample of how people involved in real estate transactions view each other?
realt-whores
idiot.
coward.
Good slapdown
stealing articles
Yes , we are screwed.
It's not going to get ugly. It is ugly.
The real estate market is completely without value. Physical, ethical, and moral.
Great response anon (posted at 3:39:52), though I bet you lost him at real vs nominal prices.
Your response reminded me of a conversation I had a couple of years ago. It was over drinks with a very successful CEO and he was telling me about the first house he had bought. I asked him about the housing market at that time (late 70s), particularly how anyone could afford such outrageous interest rates. His response was that inflation drove wages too and the rise in his income at that time more than made up for the high interest rates on his mortgage.
Finally... Keith, while you're throwing up your supply and demand charts, be sure to factor in some elasticity. Housing is notoriously sticky on the downside.
Ben's blog is boring anyway. I'd rather read it here
me too....hey keith....
"come steal away"
"come steal away"
"come steal away with me......"
i don't care where you steal the articles from, just keep on putting up the funny pics
Someone recently mentioned Wachovia on one of these threads. Found out today that they are buying World SaVings and plan to stop offering the neg am loans in Ca. that World has become famous for. let's see what that does to the bubble.
MIAMI Craigslist "motivated":
5/6/05 78
7/1/05 91
8/13/05 104
10/27/05 135
11/27/05 148
12/08/05 190
12/12/05 216
2/8/06 359
3/6/06 452
3/24/06 575
4/22/06 893
today, 5/11/06 1005!!!
You people are not connecting the dots, realtors are somewhat right when they say prices only go down if people are out of work or you have a recession.
Right now we have huge inventories of unwanted crapboxes piling up all over the country, the economic stage is pretty much set for disaster, the stock market gave you an indication today, recession 4th quarter, big time!
Go "Don't Come!"
C'mon "Seven!!"
enjoy living life this way
"keith - stealing articles from ben's blog now???"
had to feed this troll...
there's this thing called email. readers send me articles that hit the wire. if they're interesting, they go up.
there's this thing called google. when something that's interesting gets published on the bubble, I see it, sometimes immediately.
frankly, I find ben's blog boring - no funny pictures, no good commentary, no strong point of view. like reading rss. thorough, sure, but zzzzz....
now, as to why you visit my blog to rip on me and bore my readers, I guess you and your realtor friends don't have much else to do anymore now that your jobs have gone away and sales have dried up.
I'd recommend career consuling, vs. trolling.
If you want a boring blog, go to Patrick.net
It's the same 5 or 10 people talking everytime I visit.
It's like the people on the posieden going the wrong way.
Keith
Keep feeding those trolls. It’s interesting to see the number of trolls increase as the housing market declines.
I don’t care where you get your info. Numbers are numbers. As if you post data from another blog, that makes the info invalid?
Sure, the realtors have not had to crunch numbers in some time, well, just to figure out monthly mortgage payments, (Ooo look, with an ARM, you can afford this .5 Mil home on your salary) anything more and they can barely tread water.
Then you have the “punctuation/spelling game”:
“......By the way, learn to use a comma properly.....”
Yea, folks come to a bubble blog to keep up with rules of punctuation. Hell, post in 1337, the data remains unchanged.
Supply is up, buyers are few.
Robert, Some of you sit in a cubicle all day typing away on the computer and your “punctuation/spelling game”
is great!
Some of us have been building houses and roads for 25 years and have forgotten how to type and puntuate properly.
Your not a brilliant person because you know were the comma goes!
Should I Belittle you when you struggle to install a toilet or a garage door?
Sorry Robert, That should have been directed at someone else further up. My bad
Keith, there's a difference between offering up an opinion on somebody else's work and simply copy/pasting it into your blog.
As a self proclaimed marketing expert who owns his own international consulting firm, I'd expect you to be a little less dippy when it came to plagarism and copyright infringement.
Keith, a friend mentioned to me that those Scottsdale Waterfront condos are selling like hotcakes. She said that they only have 3 or 4 left and a small 1 bedroom is the neighborhood of a cool million. Who on earth is buying this stuff?
Osman said...
“……As a self proclaimed marketing expert who owns his own international consulting firm, I'd expect you to be a little less dippy when it came to plagarism and copyright infringement…….”
Osman,
As a realtor with “nothing to hide” I’d expect you to post my comments like you said you’d gladly do. As an “honest realtor” I’d expect you to place a disclaimer on your “days on market” chart to indicate that it does not account for re-list. If no disclaimer, I’d expect you to post the percentage of re-list in your area.
By the way……..This post is copyrighted by Robert ©. No response or discussion about this post can be made without the express written permission of the author or the blog owner.
Forget those pedestrian Scottsdale waterfront condos, the mountain chalets near Miami Beach are to die for!
Robert,
I did post your first comment and responded to it. I rejected your second comment because it didn't add anything new to the conversation and was bordeline inflammatory.
As for disclaimers, I find them annoying but necessary. At the bottom of every one of my posts is an already hefty disclaimer. I don't see how specific language disclaiming DOM based on some possible influences is worth the aggrevation.
Like I wrote in our lengthy debate on DOM, I strongly advise all clients to look into the history of the home for which they are considering writing a contract. I provide the information to the best of my ability and if there is a DOM discrepancy, I'll find it on a case by case basis.
Because you seem to think this is such a critical issue, I'll spend some time seeing if I can tease out a relist factor from the MLS. Again, I don't expect to find it significant for the reasons I've previously mentioned. I'll post on it shortly.
Robert,
I found a quick way to search the database. I searched for expired or withdrawn listings for the 1st Quarter of 2003, 2004,2005, and 2006.
In order to "refresh" a listing, it must either expire or be withdrawn. Then it must sit off the market for a required period of time (I think two weeks). I'll post on my own blog about this eventually, but to satisfy YOU...
Expired and Withdrawn Listings for all residential homes and attached dwellings in the City of Boulder:
1Q03 232 Properties
1Q04 227 Properties
1Q05 197 Properties
1Q06 205 Properties
If there was a big uptick, I'd expect it to show up here. The difference between this year and last year was only 8 properties. I think the comparison between years, in the most recent case showing lower DOM this year than the previous two, is relevant. It's a non issue for the reasons I've repeatedly mentioned and doesn't need a disclaimer.
I posted the charts for you Robert. Take a look.
Osman,
Although I haven’t verified the numbers, I must say you might be on the right track. At least you’re trying to find some sort of (hopefully) real data. Keep up that train of thought, the numbers do mean something.
I think it is a “critical” issue not because it could sway the housing market, but because it could be insignificant info. Yes, if this data is so “insignificant” why is it not publicly disclosed? If this “insignificant” info is prone to manipulation what significant info (i.e. info that affects YOUR commission) is manipulated? And to think that it’s not a problem because the growth of re-list is little, is short sighted. It matters greatly if you’re looking to purchase. Growth or no growth, it’s one more thing to check for to make sure you’re not being duped by your “buyers agent”. Example:
Listing #: SM5505483
Brand New home
Water views from every window.
3 Bedrooms, 2 Full/1 Partial Bath(s)
2,400 Estimated Sq. Ft.
DOM 112
$380,000
What would you offer?
I’d offer $250K or less. Why?
This home was on the market May of last year for $400K.
Around October last year, it was $300K.
Off the market in November, now back for $380K.
Where does this info come from? Not from any public MLS and surprisingly, not from my realtor who was pocketing 3%(I’ve since changed realtors). For 3%, I should not have to lift a finger, much less go on a fact-finding mission.
As for my first post “Does your DOM chart take into account for re-list?”
And my second (deleted) post: “What’s the value added of a DOM trend when you do not know the percentage of re-list?” Is simply that, “what’s the value added?” Does not seem too inflammatory to me.
I’ll admit, we or your “viewers” have no binding contract with you, so you don’t have to disclose anything. But if you want to have an informative blog instead of the blah, blah, blah that we can find at any other realtor site (real estate only goes up, it’s a hot market, they aren’t making any more land) tell us of unscrupulous realtor tactics, behind the scenes operations, and exactly what do the “buyers and sellers agents” disclose to each another when we are not around.
Hmm I love the idea behind this website, very unique.
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What a great site, how do you build such a cool site, its excellent.
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My response to Robert's question is posted here.
Hmm I love the idea behind this website, very unique.
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