May 30, 2006

Show us your portfolio - is it housing-bust-proof?


No $'s, just holdings, %'s are fine. Me:

Bought to hold (20+ years):
YHOO
EBAY
SBUX
AAPL
EWC
EWJ

2012 expiration options:
COP

Speculative:
GLD
SLV
BEARX

and small fresh put positions on
QQQQ
FAST
LOW

and the rest, about 1/3 of worth, in HSBC 4.75% US$ savings looking for a home

I'd like to see some other portfolios. Still looking for great ideas. I'll be buying more YHOO and EBAY buy to hold, and possibly moving some $ back to Euros, although I think with the fed continuing to raise the dollar should be ok short term. Thinking of opening up puts on HD and others that'll be trimmed due to consumer spending meltdown to come.

35 comments:

Anonymous said...

Had 5% of of my cash in YHOO. Sold a week ago at break even.
Have approx 40% of my cash in physical gold and silver.. down 5%.

I'm considering adding gld and slvr slowly with time... watching the dollar closely. I'm looking for ways to preserve wealth more than investment at this time. I feel nothing is safe including PMs. Any ideas?

Anonymous said...

when is the fed's next meeting?

Anonymous said...

Keith,

Check out the Canadian Oil and Gas
Royalties HTE, PTF, and CNE. I own all 3.

All pay monthly dividends in Canadian Dollars. For me they are plays on higher energy prices as well as a play on the Canadian Dollar. They have done well for me the last 3 years.

ALso own some GLD and SLV. For me these long term inflation-insurance.
Not speculative at all.

Also own a chunk of US$ Treasury Bills. No state taxes.

For stocks, I prefer GDX the next 18 months.

Do your own due diligence. Just sharing.

- Happy SF Renter.

Anonymous said...

20% VGPMX (Vanguard precious metals)
20% PSPFX (Natural resources/energy)
20% Speculative miners & general hedges (Usually S&P puts to cover market risk)
20% Basket of commodities
20% Bullion (Not paper)

Slimer said...

Another holder of bullion (not paper). Silver. And preparing for the currency collapse and considering Gold and handguns, too, for my wife and I. A good sheeple always diversifies.

YHOO? Keep sleeping, my sheeple. Uncle Sugar is your friend. Buy your failure to deliver (FTD) derivative counterfeit stock on Ameritrade.

Matt Recore said...

2008 Puts on

CTX
KBH
LEN
DHI
BZH

Most bought in January. All are green with the CTX puts up over 100% so far.

Much more of a fall to go.

rentboy said...

Keith..

I'm not sure about your YHOO, EBAY play. Also very doubtful of your AAPL play. Think that AAPL will head to 50s in short term. If you're a long-term player, then you don't mind the down turns on these holdings.

I'm not an investor and will never consider myself one, unless I start a business that has physical inventory. Since I buy and sell stocks, I consider myself a trader.

I saw the housing tsunami coming and I took advantage of it by shorting home builders -- RYL, NVR, MTH, HOV, CTX. Went long on gold by buying physical gold and gold mining stocks such as GG and went long on paladium. Went long on energy such as oil -- VLO, PTR, STO.

Also it is not a bad idea to go short on the DOW and NASDAQ.. as the next bear cycle will hit stocks in the near future.

poweredchicken said...

40% sgx - aussie junior gold miner
10% eqi ditto
50% gold and silver bullion.

up about 30% at the moment.

Anonymous said...

I'm bullish on big pharma. There's an enormous group of people about to stop worrying about their next tummy tuck.

They are about to start whining about their arthritis, glaucoma (although smoking pot heads that off, so perhaps not), their osteoporosis, and their alzheimers.

The FB federal government is willing to pick up the tab for all of this. Additionally these people's kids are unwholesomely obese, leading to record levels of childhood-onset diabetes. Healthcare (for amputees and dialysis) and wonder drugs are going to the moon baby!

I'm likewise bullish on energy stocks, especially producers.

I'm bearish on the dollar and even more bearish on all other fiat currencies, with the possible exception of the Ruble. Russia has an account surplus and they aren't export dependent on anything but oil. Currently:

BEARX
SLV
GLD
WMB
GSK
Cash 80%

Dogcrap Green said...

TOL Toll Brothers = 100%

Anonymous said...

GE
RNWK
INSM

Jerkstore

SidneyPrice said...

30% in a 2yr CD -- waiting to purchase next house
5% 4-wk T-Bils
10% cash
22% mutual funds in US stocks
33% mutual funds in non-US stocks

need to get the rest of the cash into the T-Bills. Im leery of Gold and other PMs, as Id be late to the party. There is too much liquidity worldwide. Asset bubbles in PMs have happened in the past. The liquidity flow from RE will spray other assets now, but danger from the Dark Side there is.

Anonymous said...

Goldmoney.com founder sees gold price rising up

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Flaws in the dollar are going to move the price of gold higher, said James Turk, the founder of Goldmoney.com, in an interview in Barron's magazine.
"There are problems with the dollar, and that's being reflected in a higher gold price," Turk said. "I still fear we are going to see a panic in the dollar at some point."
Turk said the rise of protectionism in the United States has unsettled wealthy international investors.
The price of gold is "going much higher," and the $8,000 per ounce forecast he made a couple of years ago is "probably as good a target as any," Turk said. A near-term spike to $2,000 is possible, he added.
The price of gold will never again go below $500 an ounce, Turk said.
The U.S. government is trying to fund the federal budget deficit without destroying the dollar and trying to raise interest rates to save the dollar without destroying the economy, he said.
"I don't think they can do it," he said.

http://tinyurl.com/o8g42

Anonymous said...

From another thread here:

$1,100,000 in gold mining companies trading account (positions taken in 2002 - very volatile)
$750,000 in PM mutual funds (retirement)
$200,000 in TIPS (retirement)
100+oz Au
bunch of silver
$300,000 mobile home paper (75% ownership)
$600,000 6-plex (cap rate ~11; 50% ownership)

Anonymous said...

I'm a bit pissed because the miners are lagging physical gold on the last ride up. Usually it's the other way around.

Got some bullion but had Yamana YRI and Silver Wheaton SLW and haven't done too shit hot. Also buying Canadian oil field services companies (suspicious of bullshit numbers from producer's reserves quotes) which seems to be doing well.

Own a house in centre of oilsands country in Alberta bought in 2000. Up 70%, probably one of the few safe real estate areas but it's hell living in a boom town. Impossible to buy building supplies or get labourers. Foreign workers coming in can't get housing; even hotels are full everywhere.

(I'm probably an anomoly among the general trend on housing)

MIKEG said...

My purfect inflation/deflation hedge

Inflation hedge 40%

Novagold(ng), Silverstandart(ssri), Chariot ressources, Fording coal trust (fdg) ,krugerrands,silverbars

Deflation hedge 30%

In the money leap puts on the folllowing us stocks(already huge gains) :
hombuilders
WCI
TOL
DHI
JOE
banks:
FED
LEND
CORS
and of course our favorite FNM

30% cash generating part

pembina pipeline income trust
great lakes hydro
3-months CD

Awaiting bubble rubble said...

My biggest holding is RRPIX, but I'm going to start trimming soon after this year's nice runup and pick up some BEARX. I also have some exposure to the bankruptcy industry (FCN, PRAA, ASFI) as well as non US telecom dividend plays. Also long homeland security stocks and YSI, which have been floundering. Started buying 6 month CDs when rates rose above 5% and will put a bit into tax liens by the end of the year.

Anonymous said...

short: (homebuilders)
BZH
PHM
JOE

long:

CNE (Canadian oil trust)
CCJ (uranium)
CELG (biotech)
FCX (mining)
FRG (speculative mining)
GG (goldmining)
GLD (gold)
MGAFF (speculative uranium)
TNT (russian oil)

funds:
FFHRX -- short term high income
FUSFX -- very short term bond
AFBIX -- bets on increasing corporate/treasury bond spread, i.e. deterioration in credit quality as recession starts.

Anonymous said...

I got BEARX, shorting homebuilders since March, and some gold. My 401K is in a stable value fund that earns 5%/yr. I'm in 95% defensive mode right now

Chris G said...

I've been shorting TOL (good return) and bought GLD (down 2%) about a month ago. Also bought some TOL puts to pile on. I actually hold a few notes against some real estate, but fortunately those are against properties in Wisconsin....those are in 1st position at 60% of (current) market value.

Laura said...

I Have 25% in IRA & 40lk accounts, both in Vanguard and Fidelity energy & gold mutual funds - also 40% non-retirement monies in these same funds and have to say they all have been doing great. I'm somewhat disapointed though with Fidelity's returns and am thinking of transfering it all to Vanguard. Anyone else have the same experience with Fidelity funds?

Have 20% in gold and silver/mining stocks - NEM,GG,GLG,RGLD. All are doing very well, except NEM and RDGLD have been not so good, which is suprising.

Have 15% cash earning 4.15 in the Ing account.

I personally have never shorted stocks, but find it interesting and would like to learn more about it. Is there any how-to reading material or advise anyone can give a me as a beginner?

Thanks to all in advance.

Oh, by the way, Keith, keep up the good work! I read your blog everyday, including Ben Jones blog, and I have to say, you have a knack for choosing the appropriate pictures for your threads, I have to visit here everyday.

Awaiting bubble rubble said...

laura,

Don't short... too risky in an environment where data is so often manipulated. Study options strategies and then buy Jan 07 puts, limit risk.

Anonymous said...

mutual funds: 35%
OAKBX
long: 45%
ABX ARTNA AVP GLD KO PFE PHO XLE WWY EBAY
hedge: 9%
RYL Jan 08 $95 puts
LEND Jan 08 $70 puts
cash: 11%

Laura said...

That is true, information is twisted by the market makers. Thanks for the heads up on Jan 07 puts - I will definitely read up on this subject. I dont want to lose money unnecessarily. Thank you.

Halifax said...

Laura:

As you may know, Vanguard has previously closed its accounts to new money, and then only recently allowed new money to existing accounts only. I recall the letter closing the fund to new money, in which comments were made about protecting the investor (!!!). There weren't any similar letters during the TMT bubble, that's for sure.
Gold is currently in a downdraft, and this may affect timing of your fund transfers.

Halifax said...

Our corner of the world is involved in GLD, PM mutual funds, BP royalty trusts, tankers (FRO), four-plexes, six-plexes, and selling near-the-money puts for select PM stocks.

Laura said...

Hal: yes,I did hear Vanguard closed its gold fund back in Febuary or so. Agree, dont know if its good or not - the timing seems alittle early with gold rising as it is.

Sometimes too Vanguard reopens their closed funds-I think this happened to one of the Explorer funds. I am waiting to see if they open a new gold/mining fund to replace VGPMX.

Anonymous said...

Long 2 Nymex Dec 2010 $100 Crude calls @ $2.55 & $3.45...

(Total cost $6k)

Kind of a shit-storm hedge for me.

Rick J said...

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