That entry point some folks have been looking for... might just come this week. I'm actually rooting for it.
I've also got a feeling we might get a mini-crash this week in the markets... Black Monday anyone?
Watch.
May 15, 2006
I've got a feeling a big gold and silver pullback will present itself this week
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33 comments:
Had a funny feeling last night, both kitco and thebulliondesk were down.
By the time they came online, both gold and silver had taken a bit of a hammering.
I see it as an unwinding of the overbought condition and will be buying with both hands!!
All of my CEF shares sold last Friday (trailing limit order), and after seeing the charts this morning, all I say thank God for automated trading.
The Fed is going to try and prop up the USD so look for a coordinated attack on gold from central banks. It could drop another 5%-10% before greed overcomes fear again.
Gold is now more speculative than housing. You pin heads sound like a bunch of condo-flippers at the wine and cheese party.
You buy and sell gold based on "feelings", "dreams", "tea leaves" ... give us all a break.
A fool and his money soon part.
Nothing has ever been more speculative or dangerous than the crappy housing market right now, you want to buy gold? Then put down money to buy gold, want to buy a house, no money down, just ask the idiots in Phoenix how they feel about their investment, well deserved 15 years of punishment is on the way, face facts.
A fool and his money soon part
Then I'll be expecting some of yours soon.
a fool and his money are soon partying!!!
This pullback in gold and commodities in general is a very healthy event in an ongoing bull market. What I find funny is idiot Cramer started pumping gold last week right at an intermediate top. Once all the shoeclerks and unwashed get nuked we should have an excellent buying opporutunity. Cramer the perfect reverse barometer!
Faith in the dollar and distrust of Gold? = Brain washed!
Gold has risen off of the charts lately and has become technically overbought. A correction has been in the cards for several weeks. I have been hoping for a correction back to $640 so I can grab another load cheap. Spank me Ben, I’ve been a bad boy!
Tom
keith...how is your gold protfolio crashing?
run now, or u will be caught like homespeculators
my gold is doing just fine - up 10%..
remember i'm not a trader. I buy and hold for the most part
I'm actually hoping for a dip this week to buy more
A fool and his money soon part.
Gold is money.
Paper is debt, and will eventually be worth zero. In fact we're already 96% of the way there - you think that trend will reverse?
It was a pull back I was waiting for. Likely to go on, but I took this opportunity to add to my Goldmoney holding.
I agree with Anonymous, a fool and his money soon part and a sucker is born every second. Last I heard, the most foolish guy I ever knew was snatching up condos for zero down thinking he would be an instant millionaire.
A smart friend of mine who would never engage in such silliness started to wonder if he was missing out on an opportunity. I told him that he was the smart one and our stupid friend would wind up bankrupt soon enough.
But thinking that you can time the market for gold or condos is pretty stupid.
Sure you may think that the dollar will drift lower with respect to gold, but gold's recent rampage has factored in decades of drifting just as the tech bubble had factored in decades of tech growth. Now that decades of dollar-drifting has been factored into the price of gold, all that is left is for the dollar to show signs of unexpected strength and then gold will tank.
Remember, even good investments become bad investments if they go up too much too soon. That is the realtor's fallacy, sure real estate is potentially a good investment but NOT AT ANY PRICE!
If you think that all hell will break loose (as many on this blog do) and you think the U.S.D. is worthless then you may indeed think that gold is a good buy at any price. But I think that the price of gold has already factored in a week dollar and global instability and as soon as the oil and Iran issues are resolved (hopefully peacefully) gold will fall back down. Probably not to $250 an ounce, but perhaps under $500.
These precious metals markets can get really frenzied.
I had a bunch of gold mining stocks in the late 80s and they had doubled for me in under a year. However, the mining stocks were giving signs of a pending sell-off and I decided to sell out everything.
It took nearly a week before I could get hold of my broker. Constant phone calls with busy signals and more busy signals. Finally got through and sold everything and still kept my 2X profit.
Shortly after that the penny mining stock market just totally collapsed. Guess I was lucky.
I just don't understand how the same rational group that was so skeptical of housing long before the masses caught-on can be caught-up so quickly in the latest ponzi-scheme, GOLD.
Gold and other metals were very smart plays ... LAST YEAR. If you are coming in now you are the greater fool, the bag holder of this bubble.
autofx_in_phx, you sound more NAR economist re-employeed as a gold pumper than a buble skeptic. You want others to buy gold because you bought gold and hope to build excitement and make profit, to find your greater fool. Guess what, you may be the greatest fool!
There are much better ways to invest your money than in speculative (irrational) markets.
Gold is not an investment - it's a hedge against systemic risk. Most knowledgable types wouldn't convert everything to PM, but some portion of one's wealth - say 5% - is certainly a reasonable approach.
Do your homework first, yes just like the housing bubble you must do your homework before investing. The people who predicted a housing bubble did so based on fundamentals. (surprise!) The people who predicted Gold to rise before it happened did so based on fundamentals. (surprise again!) Don’t invest in something just because the price is rising, that’s the easiest way to loose money. Some of us who correctly predicted both events are now reaping the rewards. If your research was a little more thorough, you might have some Gold right now. So let’s not call tops based on opinions. Try fundamentals, it sometimes works.
Tom
And just what ARE the fundamentals of gold? Is there a P/E ratio? A market capitalization? Earnings per share? Market penetration?
Autofx in Phx, Please tell us what decision prompted you to buy gold because I would love to be able to tell when it is a good value and when it is a bad value.
I just love it when people still blast gold. Please continue to do so. When I discussed to potential run up of gold with senior economist colleagues in my department about 3 years ago, I was received with a good dose of incredulity and dismissal, particularly from those whose specialize in international finance and monetary policy (the same ones who advise central banks, the Federal Reserve and large monetary institutions). I was systematically told over and over again that gold is bound for a crash that will put it back to where it started. $350 an once is unreal and unsustainable they said. At $425, they said it is bound for a crash. At $500, it is a disaster waiting to happen. When I told them 1 1/2 year ago that silver was underpriced and bound of a sharp surge; same level incredulity. The PERFECT contrarian indicator; now at $680-700 my colleagues still have the same discourse but a bit less dismissive. Even told Dept. of State high ranking officials one year to consider gold; same bovine look. While the fool I am, after years of research in Austrian economics and monetary history reached the conclusion that gold is not anywhere it has the potential to be. Please continue to dismiss gold as an oddity. Nothing here to be seen, just a bubble bound to crash anytime soon, move along…
autofx
I agree, all one needs to do is his homework. Once you do, the bull case for metals is undeniable.
To revert from its suppressed price over the last 15 years, gold should be 900-1000 at a minimum. That's assuming the dollar doesn't get killed.
Someone said:
"Gold is not an investment - it's a hedge against systemic risk"
I also do not characterize gold as an investment, but I don't consider it a hedge either - I look at it as "savings", plain and simple.
Please continue to dismiss gold as an oddity. Nothing here to be seen, just a bubble bound to crash anytime soon, move along…
Excellent! I agree, don't buy gold people. Keep your dollars.
Gold is 'real' money...always has been always will.
Go to Asia or the middle east (or parts of Europe for that matter), and you will understand exactly what sort of roll Gold plays culturally and financially.
Ask someone who lived through Weimar Germany what they think of paper money.
Ask someone who has lived through a war what they think of paper money.
Paper money that isn't backed by gold (at least partially) is worth nothing.
Gold will always serve the purpose it was designed for....the perfect storage of wealth, no matter how much the 'bankers' fight it.
autofx_in_phx, news flash ... THE SMART MONEY IS OUT.
To Warren Buffett YOU are Joe-six-pack and when you and your like-minded friends jumped "in the game" he decided to sell his position. He found his fool, now you've got to find yours.
Good luck with that.
... gold is down $35 ... and that's just today!
So, gold DEPRECIATED 5% to the USD; 5% to the fiat currency! But how can that be when we are assured gold can only rise since it is the only REAL currency, one of tangible value?
Gold bugs, you're going to get worked by the commodities market.
Fools and their money soon part.
http://www.thefinancialhelpcenter.com/
Gold-Silver-Page002.html
"Warren Buffet is out"
And on his own admission he got both in and out too quickly.
Where his silver went to nobody really knows for sure, was it used to back the ETF or did he get caught shorting with his pants down? Time will tell.
budvarr, you are flat wrong on Buffett.
This is what he actually said at the BRK-A shareholder's meeting last week. Please take the time to read it. It is very insightful and may save you and your gold bug buddys some money. [The Skeptic]
Buffett: "I don't think there's a bubble in agricultural commodities like wheat, corn and soybeans. But in metals and oil there's been a terrific [price] move. It's like most trends: At the beginning, it's driven by fundamentals, then speculation takes over. As the old saying goes, what the wise man does in the beginning, fools do in the end. With any asset class that has a big move, first the fundamentals attract speculation, then the speculation becomes dominant.
Once a price history develops, and people hear that their neighbor made a lot of money on something, that impulse takes over, and we're seeing that in commodities and housing...Orgies tend to be wildest toward the end. It's like being Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything's going to turn back to pumpkins & mice. But you look around and say, 'one more dance,' and so does everyone else. The party does get to be more fun -- and besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly the clock strikes 12, and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice."
Right and just before he said that Buffett said that Berkshire had not benefited from the particularly steep rise in silver prices.
“I bought it very early, I sold it very early. Other than that it was perfect,” he joked.
Sound like thestreet.com has been reading this blog, check it out:
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/metals/10285701.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
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