Here's the past three quarters:
Q3 2005 $227,600
Q4 2005 $225,300
Q1 2006: $217,900
Now predict next quarter, and then 1 year out and then 2 years out:
A: Q2 2006: $_____
B: Q2 2007: $_____
C: Q2 2008: $_____
Anons - here's the dealio. Get on record by instead of clicking on "Anon" - click on "Other" and just fill in any old name you want - no registration needed. That way you can take credit (or get flamed) later on!
Here's my picks:
A: $211,000
B: $197,000
C: $187,000
It's tempting to really take this number down further, but it is US Median, not Phoenix, not Boston, not Miami, not Vegas... So even a 20% drop from the top would be horrific, almost world-ending for the economy and so many people, and we've already fallen 5% or $10,000 from the high..
May 16, 2006
HP'ers: Predict the US Median Single Family Home Price
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19 comments:
I think monetary inflation will keep close, no more than 10% drop. But a continuous squeeze.
What will be exploding though will be local taxes and energy and insurance costs.
Insurance costs will be driven up due to climactic change and high building costs, and high building costs are the result partially of high energy and commodities costs, and that is a result of dollar inflation and US deindustrialization.
shame on those who told (and keep telling) people to buy homes at the high. david lereah, bob toll, alan greenspan, george bush, the NAR and all those damn realtors
$10,000 down already. That's all the money in the world to a lot of people. Add in selling costs of say 8%, another $16,000, and that's $24,000 loss in just a few months.
IT's their own fault!
Inflation will be heating up big time.
It will inflate the central states making the national number seam smaller.
Here are my picks for the median prices, FWIW:
A. Q2/06 $214,970
B. Q2/07 $203,400
C. Q2/08 $192,400
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D. Q2/09 $181,670
E. Q2/10 $171,900
During this process, there is the risk of monetary base growth at Y2K- and post-9/11-like rates and those of the early '90s (S&L Debacle and RTC liquidation), as the Fed monetizes the fed gov't's deficits/GDP of 4-5% and a doubling of the public debt/GDP by the early '10s. Fannie and Freddie will become insolvent, as will many regional banks now with 70-80% of total assets in real estate loans. All the while, with rising mortgage defaults and soaring loan-loss reserves, it is not at all a certainty that M2 growth will be positive, despite Fed fiat credit-money pumping akin to Japan's "quantitative easing" of the '90s to date. Gold will not necessarily perform well in a period of hyper-credit-money pumping, if the growth of M2 slows or contracts in real terms and/or US supranational firms repatriate dollars from slowing economic activity in Asia as a result of the slowdown in the English-speaking and EU+ economies.
BC
"Now predict next quarter, and then 1 year out and then 2 years out:"
These are nominal dollars:
Q2 2006: 215,000
Q2 2007: 205,000
Q2 2008: 200,000
Q2 2009: 202,000 (extra one)
David
Bubble Meter Blog
Seeing as how it's median:
A. Q2/06 $210,000
B. Q2/07 $180,000
C. Q2/08 $155,000
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D. Q2/09 $140,000
E. Q2/10 $130,000
F. Q2/11 $120,000
G. Q2/12 $105,000
H. Q2/13 $95,000
I. Q2/14 $90,000
A. Q2/06 $213,900
B. Q2/07 $196,560
C. Q2/08 $168,800
I'm game:
Q2/06 $212,500
Q2/07 $209,000
Q2/08 $195,000
These numbers seem crazy for someone who just moved from Fairfax County, VA. You can't even buy an outhouse for that!
A: Q2 2006: 210,000
B: Q2 2007: 210,000
C: Q2 2008: 215,000
Q2 2006: 206,000
Q2 2007: 175,000
Q2 2008: 120,000
$145,000
Zimbabwe's annual inflation rate has topped 1 000% for the first time, underlining the economic collapse of a country crippled by shortages and where people have to carry bags full of cash to pay for the most basic of purchases.
Moffat Nyoni, director of the government's Central Statistical Office, said that inflation for the 12 months to April had been 1 042.9%, state radio reported. In March, the figure was 913%.
Figures released by Nyoni's office showed the inflation rate was 21.1% last month alone. This was fuelled by a 27% increase in the cost of basic foods, 24.8% in rents, 35.1% in fuels such as petrol and paraffin, and 48.1% in motor vehicle and health insurance.
According to the World Bank, Zimbabwe, in its eighth year of recession, has the fastest-shrinking economy of a country outside a war zone and the highest inflation rate in the world.
The economy has been in free fall since President Robert Mugabe's seizure of 5 000 formerly white-owned commercial farms in February 2000.
"We are living with the consequences of (the government's) destructive policies of the past," said economist John Robertson. "(The government) cannot raise the necessary taxes from our shrinking economy."
Zimbabwe had better resign itself to its fate, because Mugabe popped the bubble in White leadership & White productivity. Now nothing is left, except A Vibrant People, Rich in Local Customs and Heritage!
Dollars will be obsolete. You will need sheep, firewood, or Mexican food to buy a house.
Then a smart lawyer will come along and figure out how to trade sheep as a paper investment and the cycle will start all over.
People will eat more Mexican food than they can afford and credit will be issued based on the number of sheep you have.
While you are taking all the equity out of your sheep, you will be asked to sign a document in which you unknowingly agree "because you are too hurried to read" to personally agree to pay the loan back.
This means the bank owns your income for life regardless of what your investment does.
WAKE UP! LOOK IN YOUR LOAN DOCCUMENTS FOR A PERSONAL GUARANTEE.
Many of the new loans and all of the equity lines are not able to be bankrupted.
SLAVE, MEET YOUR MASTER!
Q2: $213,900
Q3: $210,900
Q4: $208,900
Gotta put the "900" on the end of all these to make them realtor-friendly. LOL!
Oops, I f'd up.
Q2 2006: $213,900
Q2 2007: $207,900
Q2 2008: $208,500
Q2 2006: 205,000
Q2 2007: 165,000
Q2 2008: 170,000
Frightening info on Zimbambe.
US $ down 6% in one month, therefore, if economy stays at this rate, our US $ will be almost worthless in 2 years...Think!
Also, I heard one plan is to make America like England, where a professional couple can hope for 700 Square Foot homes. Disgusting, isn't it? And, why has Mr. Turner bought enough land in America to (reportedly) equal one of our smaller states?
Building a Hooverville, anyone?
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