May 16, 2006

Housing slowdown to be widely felt: "It's going to be very similar to the stock bubble, but even more so"


Now that the bubble has burst, the bloom is off the rose, and consumers are gonna start freakin out, it's time to batten down the hatches, and prepare for the mother of all recessions. We're in terrible, terrible financial trouble as a nation. Our leaders have failed us, our greed and financial ignorance have led us astray.

Sorry, don't blame the messenger. Most of us have been preparing for this very day. It'll be a tough one, and a long one, for all of us, and I wish you all the best, especially in Phoenix, Miami, DC, Denver, San Diego, Naples, Tampa and Boston. A world of hurt, not seen since '29, call it the Housing Plague, is descending upon your fair cities...

Slowdown in residential building and home sales will be felt throughout the economy; weaker jobs and consumer spending expected

You don't need to be in the market to buy or sell a home to be affected by the cooling housing market.

Economists, investors and the Federal Reserve are watching home building and home sales carefully because the sector has reached so far throughout the economy in recent years, lifting all manner of consumer spending and economic activity.

This week has brought several new readings indicating that the super-heated real estate market of 2004 and 2005 is rapidly fading in the rearview mirror.

"It's going to be very similar to the stock bubble, but even more so. Many who didn't own stock lost their job when the market plummeted," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, and one of those who believes housing prices have resulted in an asset bubble ripe for a correction.

"They might not be directly connected to the housing industry, but they could find themselves affected, even if they work at a factory, or at a local mall. A lot of people have been sustaining their consumption by borrowing against the rise in their home's equity. If that stops, it certainly has to slow consumption considerably."

"Housing accounts for between a fourth and a fifth of the GDP (gross domestic product)," said Walter Molony, spokesman for the National Association of Realtors, referring to the broad measure of the nation's economic activity. "So many other industries see sales tied to the purchase of a home. We get calls from Singer sewing machines about our home sales statistics."

"As we try to clear this inventory of unsold homes, there's going to be a lot of layoffs in construction, and less revenue from the creation of housing," said Hall.

Residential contractors added nearly 200,000 jobs last year during the white-hot building boom, or about one job out of every 10 created in the broader economy.

That means that if the National Association of Homes Builders is correct and there are 150,000 fewer new home sales this year compared to the 2006 record, that's 375,000 fewer construction jobs, or the equivalent of about three companies the size of General Motors.

53 comments:

Anonymous said...

scarey. brilliant. true.

Anonymous said...

it'd be fascinating to read this blog from the first entry last year to this last one. what a story that has unfolded.

Anonymous said...

Thank goodness I went to school and got a good salaried position. I don't feel sorry for losing housing construction jobs, just a further sign of overpriced housing and the trashy people they hired to make them. Those houses are like tissue they will crumble easy.

Anonymous said...

what a bunch of gloom and doomers....

The U.S. weathered the 2001 crash ok, it'll weather this crash ok too.....

Everyone has already forgot about the dot.com crash, and that was only 5 years ago......everyone seems to have gotten out of it relatively unscathed and moved on with their lives.

They will in this case too....

Geez

David said...

"The U.S. weathered the 2001 crash ok, it'll weather this crash ok too....."

BC the housing boom comfortably replaced it.

blogger said...

"The U.S. weathered the 2001 crash ok, it'll weather this crash ok too....."

here's the big difference: The housing bubble was done on margin - the mother of all margin accounts. $5000 could control $500,000. Also, during the stock market boom, still less than half of households participated and then only a small amount in most cases.

Housing? 70% of americans. On huge margin.

Get real. Get a grip. And get ready.

Anonymous said...

time to batten down the hatches

prepare for the mother of all recessions

A world of hurt, not seen since '29

Are you seriously that scared? Seriously? For your sake I hope not.....I would not like to live my life as worried as you are.

Your 1929 reference makes me laugh the most. For today to be like 1929, the Dow would have to fall from 11,400 to 1250. You and I know that is not going to happen.

Anonymous said...

george bush will be blamed for the iraq fiasco, the housing bubble, the dollar fiasco and the debt fiasco - he'll make herbet hoover look like george washington to schoolkids in 2100.

Anonymous said...

The reasons we survived the dot com crash were because:

1) a huge Housing Bubble.
2) massive government "security" and war spending
3) Alan Greenspan handing out free money


Tech companies are *still* outsourcing out the wazoo and most people's stocks haven't gone anywhere net in five years.

The technology jobs did NOT come back.

Venture capitalists in Silicon Valley are now refusing to support startups unless they start with their technical jobs pre-outsourced from the beginning.

So, now, once the housing bubble blast wave really starts to hit, what will be there to take over?

1) low low interest rates? Homie don't think so, when inflation is biting, and the dollar is crashing. The euro was 80 cents then, too.

2) new government spending? Not going to fly. Then we had a great fiscal position. Now we're in huge debt.

3) a new technology bubble? What are you toking?

Anonymous said...

I've been a gloom and doomer from back in the 90's crash when I lost my home. I expect to get screwed again on this one by trying to time the market. I am loosing my confidence in the house bubble prediction and gaining confidence in the dollar devaluation. Screwed by Bush in 91 and screwed again in 06. Still slaving to live and living to slave.

Last night he said he would make it a crime to hire illegals from Mexico. Does this mean we'll have 6 million starving illegals on our streets? I guess 6000 Nat Guard will only expand our deficit and create more debit. Looks to me like more bubble blowing.

Anonymous said...

Funny, I just had this same conversation this weekend. I fully expect that we will see the worst recession of my lifetime hit in the next 2 to 3 years.

David said...

"prepare for the mother of all recessions'

Yikes. Keith, you are scaring even me.

David
Bubble Meter Blog

Anonymous said...

The Dow will never get below 2000.....it won't even get to 8800 this year like some of you fools predicted.

Don't know bout you, but I am feeling fine in my dallas home......no worries.

Anonymous said...

http://tinyurl.com/rv48w

The world is about to change radically... in every way, and you and your life are going to be directly affected, and soon too.

So, let me get down to brass tacks and explain myself, and, gold’s heavy price activity this year.

First of all, let me begin with a specific example. Typically, the US fiscal and trade deficits are given as reasons for the gold spike since 2000. And this year, the two hundred dollar gold price increase has come amidst the usual discussion of the US deficits.

However, these deficits have been out of control for over 5 years. Why is it that, all of a sudden in 2006, gold prices rise over $200, or about 30% in a few months?

Answer: this year we face the imminent demise of the USD system combined with a world energy war brewing in the Middle East. When I say the USD system, I mean the fact that it is the world’s reserve currency. The demise of the USD system will have apocalyptic economic consequence for YOU.

Anonymous said...

I believe that we will have starving mexicans in our streets- or at least crammed in 20 to a house. They will be too afraid to access food banks and such, because of all the riff raff about illegals. I am truely worried about this. I have seen thousands of houses in new mexico being built by their labor, and if they quit building houses, I just don't know what these people will do. Also, I don't know too many people who are americans who have extra cash right now. It just seems like people are in debt to an outrageous level. I don't see how things aren't going to get really bad.

Anonymous said...

I don't believe it will be 1929 all over again. Back then, we didn't have the SEC to protect us from the nonsense that went on before the stock market crash. There are also some controls in place to prevent an unimpeded decline at the NYSE. Remember that unemployment was up around 25%, I believe. GM sales went down about 75% from 1929 to 1932. People would engage in marathon dance contests in the hope of winning some money. I don't really see any of that happening.

That being said, however, I do believe there will be a deep recession. About a week ago, I confided to my fiancee that we will probably be in a recession within the next 2 years. I don't think we will see Dow 12,000 before then, and if we don't see 12,000, we won't see it for at least another 4 years or so.

I am also deeply concerned about what effect the retiring of the baby boomers will have on this economy. The beginning of the wave officially starts in 2008 and will go on for another 15 years.

Today on Yahoo Finance, the poll question asked if the recent selloff in the market meant that it was time to buy. 55% said yes, and only 32% said no (15% thought it was fairly valued -- must be a heck of a rounding error there). I think most of us here are baffled at the 55%.

A little off topic: watch "Frontline" on PBS tonight -- check your local listings for times. It's about the coming retirement boom and how most of them don't have nearly enough money saved for retirement. More doom and gloom for your viewing pleasure.

Anonymous said...

GEORGE BUSH IS THE GREATEST AMERICAN PRESIDENT TO TAKE OFFICE IN THIS CENTURY! for 2 reasons 1) he is the only one. 2) he took the office twice. literally took it.as far as all that debt to china,they are raising a hugely disproportionate number of male children,so we just clone britney spears a million times and sell the kids to the chinese,problem solved.

Anonymous said...

It's about the coming retirement boom and how most of them don't have nearly enough money saved for retirement. More doom and gloom for your viewing pleasure.

Of course they don't have money saved. They are spending it on McMansions and SUVs and expecting the rest of us to buy their houses at inflated prices so they can ride off into the sunset in their RV paying $1.50/gallon gasoline.

The boomers have to be the stupidest bunch ever. Sorry - but even my parents feel entitled to their lifestyle. None of us are entitled to anything expect security and air. The rest is earned.

Anonymous said...

If it gets really bad and widespread pain, the bankruptcy laws will be changed back.

I predict

*) bankruptcy laws changed back to allow chapter 7

*) mortgage regulators will go back to requiring 20% down in CASH.

*) laws will be passed so that mortgages are always "non-recourse" with respect to the house, i.e. turning over the house, assuming it is in normal salable condition, is always sufficient payment for the loan.

Banks will howl, but if there is a populist President and Congress in the midst of a devastating recession/depression, it will happen.

Populist mortgage reform could be a major winning campaign platform in 2010 or 2012 elections.

Anonymous said...

Recession will reach WAY BEYOND just housing and related industries.

Be mindful that this now-ending era of extremely low interest rates have enabled "pulling forward" of consumer product purchases throughout the economy.

Meaning, consumers have used the potent combination of asset wealth (stocks, real estate) and near-zero interest rates to buy products they would have otherwise bought much later.

These purchases include big-ticket items like cars/trucks (0% GM financing!) and large screen TV's (0% Best Buy financing!)

But it also means furniture, clothing, household equipment, and on and on.

I'll be using my profits from my HB shorts to pay down my remaining variable interest rate debts to prepare for the re-emergence of double-digit interest rates.

I purchased a 2006 Prius with 100% financing for 6 years at 6%, and will be looking to buy a bargain-priced late-model SUV from some poor strong-ARM'd soon-to-be-foreclosed homeowner this summer.

I am not selling my overvalued home, as renting or relocating are not options. Rather, I am utilizing a 200k HELOC to keep shorting the HB's now, and the lenders when the timing is right.

Many ordinary, unassuming people will be hurt badly from this upcoming economic malaise so Keith, please do me a favor, and don't be so harsh on them.

They're going to need our help.

prof_investor_40

Anonymous said...

"dang said...
what a bunch of gloom and doomers....

The U.S. weathered the 2001 crash ok, it'll weather this crash ok too....."

Hey "Dang": Guess who lost his job right after the stock bubble crash? Yours truly. It was one of the worst times in my life.

"Housing Panic" has been right on...I don't think Keith is a genius...(well, maybe he is a fellow genius :)) but he has made good common sense points...

keep out the good work

Anonymous said...

what a bunch of gloom and doomers....

The U.S. weathered the 2001 crash ok, it'll weather this crash ok too.....

Everyone has already forgot about the dot.com crash, and that was only 5 years ago......everyone seems to have gotten out of it relatively unscathed and moved on with their lives.

They will in this case too....

Geez

----------------------------------

We weather the crash of that bubble by creating this bubble to prop it up. This the lst bubble they can engineer. It's not just one bubble unwinding, it's a series of bubbles all related to each other and successively propping each other up going back 20 years that's now about to unwind. Duh.

Anonymous said...

Comparisons to the Great Depression may be quite apt. Remember that it took 4 years (1929 to 1933) to reach maximum unemployment. The stock market even did reasonably well in the mid 1930's pulling in a whole new load of buyers and false hopes.

It takes TIME for an economy the size of ours to change course. Use the twighlight of this economy in 2006 to save what you can. Any one of us could be out of work next year.

Personally I'm looking for a recession on par with the 1979-1982 period.

But I do think it could be worse. We have too many imbalances left over from Y2000, that were never wrung out by the last recession. A "double whammy" of a recession is quite possible.

Anonymous said...

Haven't you guys learned anything! Bubble to bubble to bubble. If you can't beat them, than, just make money off of them. Buy gold right now after this little correction, and get out when you see all these coin dealer open up down the street.
I'm sure the next bubble after gold will be easy to spot by then.

Anonymous said...

hey all you chicken s**ts that are so smart and so certain that the economy will tank.......i got a way for you to make guaranteed money



borrow to the hilt and put all the money in shorting stocks.......




all of it




even better, sell options on stocks and make a killing on the recession!!!







that's what i thought.........................so shut up then

Super Squirrel said...

Before the bank can foreclose maybe demo part of the mcmansion (very secretly) and use it to build a shack down by the river. Finally, I can use that generator left over from Y2K!

Anonymous said...

just put in an order to sell 56k worth of options on DIA

Anonymous said...

As ususal, Dubya is just blowing hot air out of his ass to help with fall elections.
Then again, just use the same software to steal the votes again. Presto.

Anonymous said...

hey grinch......

pick a side.......i have all my money in stocks, and i bet that they re going up

what side are you on



uh huh






thought so





shu up then

Anonymous said...

If it gets really bad and widespread pain, the bankruptcy laws will be changed back.

I predict

*) bankruptcy laws changed back to allow chapter 7

*) mortgage regulators will go back to requiring 20% down in CASH.

*) laws will be passed so that mortgages are always "non-recourse" with respect to the house, i.e. turning over the house, assuming it is in normal salable condition, is always sufficient payment for the loan.

Banks will howl, but if there is a populist President and Congress in the midst of a devastating recession/depression, it will happen.

Populist mortgage reform could be a major winning campaign platform in 2010 or 2012 elections.

_________________________________
Granted, this will happen, but it won't slave the problem. It'll just cause massive inflation as the bill gets passed to the taxpayers. That's right, people like us get to pay for shallow excessive yuppies. Buy gold and silver now to keep these f%ckers from confiscating your wealth to pay for their excesses. F%ck them!

Anonymous said...

I purchased a 2006 Prius with 100% financing for 6 years at 6%, and will be looking to buy a bargain-priced late-model SUV from some poor strong-ARM'd soon-to-be-foreclosed homeowner this summer.
__________________________________

Speaking of this, has anyone noticed that there's nowhere near as many large SUVs, particularly Suburbans and Hummers, on the road this year. Wonder what kind of debt that created? ... trading in an SUV for another smaller financed car.

Anonymous said...

OK Mr Smartarse, with the rise in oil prices in the last 5 years, it's a what, 400% rise since $15?
So the transportation of Wankee brand goods from China to kiwi fruit and pilchards from Chili or grain from Saskatchewan will at some point (strategic oil stocks can't keep the price of fuel down for much longer) have to factor in these additional costs at point of sale, plus the energy costs of production will also rise accordingly.
Next lets take into account the forex dollar slump against it's major trading partners, we are looking at massive price inflation.
All well and good you say, but wages aren't being inflated to match.
Now say your Dow shares rise about 30% to 15000, (about as likely as hell freezing over, but still) and prices of consumer goods rise 50% (a very conservative estimate in my view, but time will tell) how much money have you made in real terms?

Anonymous said...

Hey Dallas home,

Your feeling fine ...This will make Texas in 1980 look like a walk in the park.Feeling fine... what a moron.

Anonymous said...

OFF SUBJECT but relevant.

Yesterday, Ecuador kicked out US based Occidental Petroleum Corp and seized $1B in assets. There goes another 100,000 barrels of oil.

A couple weeks ago Bolivia nationalized several commodity sectors including mining and oil.

At the end of April, Nigeria gave China the right of first refusal over four oil exploration blocks.

This is only just the beginning.

Anonymous said...

y'all are so smart said... said...
hey grinch......

pick a side.......i have all my money in stocks, and i bet that they re going up

what side are you on

uh huh

thought so

shu up then
----------------------------------
let me know when you run screaming with monster losses because if you are not in the correct stocks, your dome will be dented. On another note, the markets don't have to tank like in 1929 for there to be a massive recession and massive unemployment. However Dow 7500 is easily possible. The only cash propping the markets up is the rich. Joe Common Humanoid has no money because he is borrowed up to the max. I for one am hoping for 10-20% interest rates so I can just sock my $ away in CD's. I have no debt and a $500 fixed mtg payment ...on a 4800 sq ft. house built by me.

Anonymous said...

I just took all I could out of my gov't 401K (thrift saving plan) and payed off my mortgage. Now 100% debt free (I do need to pay back the money but the 5 1/8% interest goes into my account). I have reduced the amount i contribute to that account to the min and still get matching funds. My savings will be "outside" that system so I can choose better where I will be putting the money. My thinking is to find a recession proof vehicle. Not sure if GLD or SLV is the right place. My CEF tanked last week. But at least out of the standard "funds". The best performing one tracked the EAFE index, but after looking at that index I see the real index was going down in local currencies but in dollars it was going up. That means while the underlying value was dropping the dollar decline made it look like it was going up. Ouch.

So besides buying land which has value (not desert sand in PHX or CA) what is a good way to play the coming economic downturn? Keith is shorting Lowes and buying BEARX. Look at BEARX and they are 70% cash. Maybe that is to buy properties after the crash, but that cash is losing real value day after day.

Good show last night on public TV regarding the shift from pensions to 401K and how people are not playing their 401K choices very well. They also talked about how people will be working longer into their lives because they do not have enough money when they hit 65. I see that at work. The workforce is getting older and staying, because they lost a lot in the dot-bomb crash and never recovered. The show stated that people should have 8+ times their final salary saved to retire at 65, and I assume that is with a paid-off residence. Many many have not done that.

Folks, we are headed for a real national situation because people have not saved. Social security and Medicare are going BK and the Pension gaurentee corp will be expected to bail out all the companies that BK to get out of pensions. GM will probably get in on that like Delphi is doing. There will be a cry for more gov't "help" for all these elderly people. The FBs will also be crying for a bailout. The foriegners are getting out of the dollar as the place to keep their surpluses despite the Fed raising rates. Looks bad.

Where to put these hard earned savings and weather this huge storm? BTW, hope we do not get the storms they are predicting for this year.

Anonymous said...

To those buying up gold.

I got food, you got a hunk of rock. You would like to trade some of your shiny yellow rock for my food? Um, let me think?

NO!!!!!

Anonymous said...

The kicker this time is that when the FBs walk away from their debt through BK they will owe the IRS the tax on the money they got free. The fed will get theirs first.

These FBs will be feeling the pain for a long time to come.

I see state and local taxes dropping at the same time that the FBs will be needing more handouts and services, competing with the FRs (F*cked retirees) who have no savings or pensions or social security.

blogger said...

"Keith is shorting Lowes and buying BEARX"

here's the portfolio today

COP
GLD
SLV
VWIGX
AAPL
EBAY
YHOO
SBUX
EWJ
EWC
BEARX
short QQQQ
short LOW
US$ Cash earning 4.75%

It's the US$ cash looking for a home. Also looking at other retailers to short as consumer spending dries up.

Gold at $710 right now FYI...

Anonymous said...

The kicker this time is that when the FBs walk away from their debt through BK they will owe the IRS the tax on the money they got free.

Nope, this was in a thread on Ben's blog. See IRS pub 523. The debt in only taxed beyond the FMV of the house, which coincidentally will be pretty high.

Don't know how this irs-induced serfdom nonsense started.

Anonymous said...

“Everything's fine today, that is our illusion.”

“Our wretched species is so made that those who walk on the well-trodden path always throw stones at those who are showing a new road”

Voltaire

Anonymous said...

Our tools are about to show us we are human. Money isn't real. It is only paper or shiny metal. It is only money cause WE SAY! Silly humans. Your tools own you.

Anonymous said...

"bankruptcy laws will be changed back" .... yes, that will come - as a safety valve. how will that affect the financial industry??? not that i am concerned about them. but i suspect that we will start to see their houses, businesses, autos, boats, etc. foreclosed, repossessed. i wonder how many of the smug types (e.g. the guy in dallas who's "doing fine" are in the financial industry. would love to hear how he's feeling about things when his industry is radicalized.

Anonymous said...

Buffett's holding company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take), revealed a 17.9 million-share stake in ConocoPhillips (COP:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) in its quarterly regulatory filing on Monday. The investment comes from the world's preeminent value investor, even after shares of the oil company have rocketed 13% so far this year, after adding a whopping 52% last year.

"I doubt that [Buffett] thinks ConocoPhillips is a screamingly cheap company," says Glenn Tongue, managing partner with T2 Partners. "He probably thinks it's a predictable asset-rich company that will grow in value far in excess of what his costs of financing are. That rationale goes along with some of Berkshire's previous investments like Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) and Wells Fargo (WFC:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take)."

Dogcrap Green said...

For all it's worth Commercial Construction is up big

Anonymous said...

Oh, but you see, I can SELL my shiny yellow and grey rocks for about 80% more than I bought them for, and thereby buy 80% more food than you.


Not if you run in to me I have Guns. I'll take you shiny rocks and the other guys food! So there!
/just kiddin'

Anonymous said...

WRT the demographic drag effects of Boomers "retiring" (mostly involuntarily), the ROC trend of increase of people reaching the typical "retirement" age started in '00 when the people at the pre-Boomer birth trough in 1937-38 began leaving the full-time, regular labor force. Thus, the trend started as early as 6 yrs. ago, but there is no mass-public perception of it yet. The fastest ROC increase will occur between '04 and '13, with the plateau lasting well into the late '10s and early '20s. That the vast majority of Boomers have not saved enough to retire or have pensions to allow them to maintain the pre-retirement lifestyles, they will be compelled to work FT or PT. The problem is that payrolls are not going to grow fast enough to accommodate Boomers AND their children AND eventually Boomers' grandchildren. Thus, elder Boomers, who think they are going to work for fun or extra cash to spend traveling and partying, will instead be competing for low-paying jobs against their children and grandchildren to pay property taxes, insurance premia and co-pays, medications, etc. But, with Boomers not requiring medical insurance, owing to the fact that they will have Medicare, and they won't have to make FT wages, they will be better hires than their younger generational successors, reducing prospects for 20- and 30-somethings, pusing down wages and benefits. No, you haven't heard about this effect until now, but you will. As Boomers leave the FT, regular labor force, they will be drawing down on mutual funds in IRAs/401-Ks en masse, driving the 5- and 10-year returns for stocks ever lower in the next decade. Most won't be able to avail themselves of reverse mortgages for extra cash, as the vast majority of Boomers will still high LVTs on their houses and won't qualify for the reverse mortgages. Cash will be KING. Liquidity preference will skyrocket. Equity risk premia will soar. Treasury yields collapse as in Japan to below 2% for 5- to 30year paper. Money velocity will COLLAPSE, despite Fed money base pumping. Demographics are destiny, my friends. Be liquid, frugal, and inconspicuous. Don't flaunt your superior financial position. Commiserate with the masses who are losing their houses and jobs and drawing down their savings too quickly to continue their latte and prescription drug habits. Bankers will be begging you and foreigners to take the properties off their books for dimes on the US$. Be prepared. Be humble. Be grateful. Be smart. Prosper in the midst of loss and growing despair, anger, and violence.

Anonymous said...

"For all it's worth Commercial Construction is up big "


Maybe it's all those empty strip malls in all those empty neighborhoods. hehe.

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