May 26, 2006

The Housing Bubble Surplus

With the dot-com bubble overbuild, it was telecom equipment, fiber optic lines, routers, business models, Porsche salesmen, lava lamps and First Monday events.

Here are some things there are now too many of because of the Housing Bubble overbuild. I was amazed to find out that in Arizona, there are over 70,000 realtors now, up from just over 20,000 three years ago. Ouch. Say goodbye to at least 50,000 of 'em in Arizona alone...

* Realtors
* Mortgage bankers
* Builders
* Developers
* Bankers
* Home Depot workers
* Houses
* Condos
* Sign makers
* Landscapers
* Illegal Mexican workers
* Architects
* Land surveyors
* Appraisers
* Flippers
* Get rich quick in real estate book writers and speakers
* Tiles for roofs
* Pool salesmen
* Remodelers
* Bubble bloggers
* NAR employees
* Builder stock owners
* Subprime lenders

And what aren't there enough of?

* Bankruptcy lawyers

* Foreclosure auctions
* "How to survive the bubble burst" books
* Job training centers
* Bartender jobs (for the unemployed realtors)


panicearly said...

not enough beds at the homeless shelters.
not enough ER staff as violent crime shoots up
not enough mad dog 20/20 on the shelves( do they still sell that?)

don't_know_nothing said...

You think there are too many bubble bloggers already? I thought we just begun?

Anonymous said...

I was getting a Hand Job at a massage parlor and the young woman let me know that she also sold houses.

If that isn't the offical end of the housing bubble, I don't know what is.

Anonymous said...

My sister is a realtor in Phoenix and I heard from her only every other month or so for the last couple of years- now she has started calling and e-mailing me almost everyday. Does someone maybe have a little more time on their hands?

Anonymous said...

East Valley Tribune said;

"Greg Burger, who helps Brown with his research, said some areas have been hit harder than others. One is the Johnson Ranch-Hunt Highway corridor."

I mentioned this area in a post a few weeks ago. I was there again a couple of days ago. I get chills when I venture into this part of Metro Phoenix. This can not be good.
Mid week and the earthmovers were parked and not kicking up dust.For sale signs all over the place.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Too many...
Vacation Homes
investment properties
big mortgage payments
maintenance costs
Insurance costs
crapy jobs
low income renters
hungry realtors
hungry lenders
folks working at Home Depot
fancy restaurants
disconnected politicians
manipulated economists
manipulated central bankers
non savers
over consumers
finger pointers
expectations of future gain

David said...

"Bubble bloggers"

You mean I'll be out of low paying job. :-( Hehe!

Bubble Meter Blog

GT said...

too many of:
granite countertops
ss appliances
unfinished flips (2 houses i drive by everyday in my area have had tyvek siding for coming on 2 months)

GT said...

maybe also add too many starbucks. they say new star$ is the easiest way to tell when an area is being gentrified and also the first thing people cut back on when they cant pay for their daily grande mocha with their home equity.

Anonymous said...


5/23: 2158.76
5/24: 2169.17
5/25: 2198.24
5/26: 2208.34

Hmmm... anyone still not seeing a trend here?

4/24: 72.09
5/01: 67.42
5/10: 67.33
5/17: 63.15
5/24: 61.15

Anonymous said...

Not enough in CA: affordible housing near middle-class

Too much in CA: $600K suburban boxes 30-50 miles from major employment centers

OT: Did anyone hear Jerry Brown come out as a conservative this week? Tlking about the 170,000 incarcerated in CA, said 30,000 of them should be handed over to Mexico by treaty...

Anonymous said...

The bubble is bursting all over the country now:

"Mortgage defaults between January and March of this year numbered 323,102 compared with 188,122 during the same period last year — an increase of 72 percent.

Indianapolis leads the nation, with one out of every 69 homes in foreclosure. Atlanta follows closely at 1 in 70 homes. Then Dallas — where the Edwardses live — at 1 in 99. Memphis is fourth at 1 in 101. Denver rounds out the top five at 1 in 105."

And yet, the NAR's ignoramus-in-chief continues to be in denial:

“If the economy stays healthy and creates jobs, you may see these foreclosure rates actually go down in some of these cities,” says David Lereah, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.

Here's the link:

Housing's inevitable demise is just starting, and I'm loving all of my homebuilder shorts!


don't_know_nothing said...

I have lots of HB puts, newest is CFC. When do you expect the dip to dive?

Anonymous said...

What's amazing is the increase in foreclosures starting in NON-bubble areas.

Of course, they had less equity "cushion" but this means that the actual economic condition of people is a whole lot worse than the blowhards say.

If defaults are up---in the middle of of a 5%+ GDP increase year---and these people bought in a NON-inflated area like Dallas or Indianapolis---we are one f@cked country.

What's happening is pretty obvious: all the increase in wealth is going to a tiny few. Real median wages have been DECLINING for three years---in the middle of a economic boom, at least if you believe the statistics.

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Anonymous said...


- Greatly unequal distribution of wealth
- Federal Reserve making discount rate artificially low
- President favors big business and the wealthy
- Prez passes huge tax cuts
- Rapid increase in manufacturing productivity
-- leads to huge rise in corp profits
-- but not to wage increases
- Oversupply of consumer goods
- 3/4 of U.S. consumers spend entire incomes just on necessities
- Level of consumer installment credit doubles in just 4 years
- Extensive stock market speculation
- Record trading volume on NYSE
- Wall St. darling goes from 85 to 400's in just over one year


Here's the link:

Does anyone else find this disconcerting?


p.s. Wall St. darling was RCA then, GOOG now.

Anonymous said...

Yes, they still sell MD 20/20. I think they've actually added a few flavors.

Cheers to the end of the housing bubble, let's all raise our glasses of MD 20/20!


Bots said...

Speaking of The Great Depression...

The "MD" in MD 20/20 actually stands for "Mogen David", as in Mogen David Wine Company, which has been producing shit wine since it was founded in 1933. How appropriate.

Anonymous said...

Go COP!!! Keith, you are a putz

uknowwhoiyam said...

Real median wages have been DECLINING for three years

Got a citation for that?

Dogcrap Green said...

For whatever it is worth. Constrcution spending rises when home building is in decline.

In 2001 corporate America was in real trouble. Interest rates were slashed during their credit crunch. THe 94% of american that worked though this period up to 2005 reaped the benifits of easy money - hence the home builder boom.

2006 things have turned. Corprate America is making more money than ever. Their credit ratyingshave sored. Their ability to borrow money has improved. And the logic to borrowing money - WE ARE MAKING MONEY OFF OUR ASSETS - is there.

As home building declines. The construction of offices, restraunts, factories, banks leaps forward.

A second phenomim is that school construction takes off. It has a tendicy off lagging housing.


Dogcrap Green said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Dogcrap Green said...

Anonymous said...
Too many...
Vacation Homes

I dissagree with Anonymous on this one and have to agree with Foobeca position. The vacation homes will beome the primary residence. It is the house sales in the suburbs that many baby boomer will sell to capture their retirement money.

More "vacation" homes will be built. The new ones will have a well and septic system that can handle 100 gallons a day 365 days a year.

A good business to be in for the home improvement people that lose their jobs in the burbs will be to convert vacation homes into primary residences. Another booming business on the horizon will be to filter out gasoline additives from ground water at the residence. Once more people start drinking well water as their primary source. There will be an explosion of cancer cases.

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