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A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
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29 comments:
We should have had a real recession after the last stock market bust, this time we will, the market is forecasting a decline 6 months from now, which follows my 4th quarter start into negative waters. This time next year expect home prices to be down 20%, all of them, no matter where you live.
This will just be the start, expect at least 10 years of 5-10% declines each year.
Advice please... I have US dollars in the bank and some in a money market. We are waiting to see what happens to the housing market before buying. We have enough to buy, but would only get a piece of junk for the amount (@500k). I want to keep our $ liquid in case we find a decent and affordable home. I am not a good gambler and don't want to make a bad decision.
Is my money safe while I wait for housing prices to drop, will house prices drop, how much (%) and how soon?
I know you can only make your best guesses, but since you are all more honest and more intelligent than most in the RE business, I would consider your best advice much more.
bh
I just bailed yesterday from the gov't 401K. took half out and put the rest into gov bonds. Was hiding in "international" fund but that also dropped a bunch.
The sh*t is hitting the fan. Russia, India, China can bury us economically. People will be broke for many reasons, not just RE. The free ride will dry up and the free riders will be pissed (anyone see the "black panthers" march on that frat house over one wh*re?) because their freebies will dry up. Or will they? Elections are coming right around the time the ARMs reset. Will the Dems promise the moon?
Stay tuned in and be aware. Thanks for the blog Kieth, I am doing things very differently than I was as a result. No canned food yet...
Is land in a good non-bubbled location a good buy? Maybe put a few cows on it and get the farm tax advantages. The trick is finding where the global weather changes will not be a real problem (drought, hurricanes) and taxes will not rise too much.
autofx: stocks DONOT climg in inflationary times, cost go up, profits go down. get out of the market.
I just went long in FNORX. Betting against the dollar.
Any other ideas?
I loved the pause right on Monday morning as people thought' whew', only to watch this unraveling.
Dow target: 7500
Naz target: 1700
Hold off bh.
This snowball is still up near the top of the mountain and hasn't started gaining momentum.
epic crash coming... could be next monday, after people lick their losses this week, heavy selling on friday, monday panic
Black Monday 2
Good chart, orderly decline. Nothing to see here move along. A buying opportunity before the summer, fall and end of year rallies. Cramer will bit the head off anyone who disagrees while Kudlow cheers him on.
options expire friday. that's gonna be one wild (and ugly) day - especially for homebuilders
enjoy!
Dow Drops More Than 200 Points
Wednesday May 17, 1:42 pm ET
By Christopher Wang, AP Business Writer
Dow Drops More Than 200 Points After Stronger-Than-Expected Rise in Inflation Rate
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stock prices plunged Wednesday after a stronger-than-expected rise in consumer inflation intensified Wall Street's fear that interest rates will keep climbing. In mid-afternoon trading, the Dow industrials were down 204.99 to 11,214.90, the Nasdaq composite had fallen 28.57 to 2,200.56 and the Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 19.44 at 1,272.64
Thanks for info. I am holding off and see sellers still holding out for high prices, it just gets discouraging.
bh
bh
The longer you wait the better your deal will be. Look into county foreclosure sales. i beleive they do them once a year. The county seizes the property if the taxes are not paid and then sells to recoup the $. Only problem may be that you have to have all cash transaction.
2007-2009 will be the time of crushing foreclosures do to rising ARM mortgages. Those people will beg you to take their house at a discount.
A presidential election in 08. Right in the height of the RE bust.
What will they do to try to make people feel happy so the opposition doesn't rerun the questions:
"Are you better off now than 8 years ago?"
If a terror strike in the interim:
"Do you feel safer than 8 years ago?"
Most likely to be said by voters:
"Are you wanting fries with that?"
all the talking head dorks on CNBC...say buy buy buy... like that freak jim cramer... let me tell you... when the public realizes the market is now negative on the year, , this could catapult it lower when the sheople want out just to preserve capital.. if you buy... cramer will be selling to you...that is more like the truth. we may see a bounce, but the trend will be lower... and if we were gonna bounce, then why does the market close near its lows??? that is weakness.
"That was a sweet drain". "I told you to sell".
signed,
Jim Cramu
There will likely be a bounce in June or July, esp if the Fed language is dovish, but it will be on light volume and short lived. When it happens, it will be a good time to liquidate before the real bad data starts hitting in August-Oct.
Mr. Gold or Lead,
I hate to burst your bubble, but why did you take your money out of your 401(k) to invest half of the amount in government bonds? What do you think the G Fund is? Chopped liver? Not only did you take the tax hit and the penalty for withdrawing your money, but you could have saved yourself the trouble by investing in either the G Fund or the F Fund.
alan greenspan said...
autofx: stocks DONOT climg in inflationary times, cost go up, profits go down. get out of the market]
Not always true! Watch gold and silver stocks skyrocket when the crap hits the fan.
Gold stocks go up during inflation?
Good.. I can only hope, since my gold stock funds have lost about 17 percent this past week or so.
Can't figure out whether to buy more, or exchange funds (403b fund... a lot like 401k)into gummint bonds.
Decisions, decisions.
ben.cota@gmail.com
"Not only did you take the tax hit and the penalty for withdrawing your money, but you could have saved yourself the trouble by investing in either the G Fund or the F Fund."
You misunderstood. I took half of my TSP out altogether and paid off the remains of my last debt - the mortgage. The other half is now in the g fund after losing 6% in the I fund. Go look up the underlying fund that the I tracks - that is the Morgan Stanley EAFE -it has actually been losing but due to the dollar falling faster it has looked like a winner. Only in dollars, not in real value. I have lost 6% of my savings money even after taking half of the loot out this week.
The heck with that! I knew US stocks would drop when Helo Ben raised rates but by going 100% in I fund was a big loser. My money is in my land and what is still there in their grubby hands is now in G. I have also dropped the contribution to the minimum 5% to still get the max matching money. The rest will be in a separate 401K that I can pick the stocks on, even GLD or SLV if I choose. NO more funds for now. The crooks on the street cannot be trusted with the money.
Fireproof safe, guns, ammo, US cash, maybe some Canadian currency, batteries and a solar charger, a stash of gasoline and diesel fuel (remember last summer?)... do these sound like good ways to park your money. None will lose value and all could come in handy.
I feel like this is "multithreading".
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RickJ
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I have been following a site now for almost 2 years and I have found it to be both reliable and profitable. They post daily and their stock trades have been beating
the indexes easily.
Take a look at Wallstreetwinnersonline.com
RickJ
I have been following a site now for almost 2 years and I have found it to be both
reliable and profitable. They post daily and their stock trades have been beating
the indexes easily.
Take a look at Wallstreetwinnersonline.com
RickJ
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