It's like reading an Econ 101 textbook. The only interesting wrinkle in this supply and demand exercise is the fact that it's happening in Phoenix, so you have to throw in the interesting variables of stupidity and greed.
Stupidity in that Phoenix isn't the home of a lot of intellectual powerhouses (like Boston, or New York, ...) - mainly at the top end community college or ASU grads at best (nuff said), and Greed in that not only was Phoenix flipper central, it's the effect of "if my neighbor sold for $x 12 months ago, then by damn, so will I!
From bubbletracking, Phoenix hit 45,000 houses for sale yesterday. Yes, 45,000. Amazing. 50,000 here we come. Will we see 100,000?
Also, a side note. We had criticized the Arizona Republic profusely a few months ago, specifically reporter Catherine Reagor, for being lazy in their reporting, and rushing to get quotes from realtors in their bubble is popping stories. Well, back on the lazy train for these reporters, as they give realtors an uncensored, unchallenged conduit for their biased BS
Note to the Arizona Republic: You want an independent, unbiased quote on Housing? Get in touch with me. Get in touch with Ben. Get in touch with Patrick. Get in touch with David. But DO NOT CALL A FRIGGIN REALTOR!
House listings up, sales lowest in 6 years
The number of houses sold last month isn't very encouraging. The Arizona Real Estate Center at Arizona State University said Thursday that although it is common for the number of homes sold in April to be weak, last month had the lowest number of sales since April 2000.
People don't seem to be getting the message that it's a difficult time to sell.
"More houses are going on the market quicker than we are selling them," said Trent Powell, a Mesa Realtor.
Powell is also optimistic. He said that during spring break sales picked up dramatically and he sold four houses in the week. "I just got a flood of calls, but it died right after," he said."September will be dead. I am really hoping for summer. It is summer or bust," Powell said.
Tempe Realtor Craig Akers advises sellers to be patient, to clean up and de-clutter their houses and to be optimistic. "There's lots of doom and gloom out there and I am not sure it is warranted," he said.
May 13, 2006
From housing bubble ground zero Phoenix: Supply skyrockets, demand tanks.. and you know what comes next...
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Keith, you are too tough on the Arizona Republic. I don't like or read the paper, but Reagor is only following J-school 101 principles when she seeks a comment from a real estate agent about market conditions. Agents are in the market every day, and they speak with knowledge, even if they have a bias. Presumably Ms. Reagor's readers will note that bias as they evaluate the full story. If Reagor interviewd RE agents only, to the exclusion of other sources, then she would be a true shill.
I forgot to add this: The Arizona Republic is the only newspaper to ever have a reporter assasinated for reporting on real estate fraud. Google Don Bolles.
real estate interests are so dominant in a place like Phoenix that the papers are under real pressure not to be too negative. you see that now in Florida too.
Asking the NAR to provide commentary on the health of the real estate market is like asking tobacco companies in the '70's and '80's if smoking is bad for people.
And what about a drought? Water can sometimes be hard to find in the desert. El Nino, another volcano like the one in the Phillipines, global warming accellerating...
How about some kind of Mexican movement (Raza) actually getting their politicians elected? Would that bode well for the remaining homeowners as the property taxes increase to fund socialized medical?
What was that bird called before it rose FROM the ashes? Was it called Phoenix before it burned?
KEITH,
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