May 05, 2006

Fortune Magazine II: "Investors are bolting, developers are slashing prices, and unsold units are piling up"


I truly can't believe the MSM is so aggressively attacking and reporting with this Fortune series. My question, where have they been a month ago, 6 months ago, a year ago? It's too late now. But damn, this is the best written piece of journalism on the bubble I've read this year.

I encourage HP readers to read ever word of this series, and email these threads to everyone you know, and ask them to email them to everyone they know.

Wow. We're here. The end game. Batten down the hatches.

When the biggest bubble in human history implodes, the mother of all Ponzi schemes, the effects on the world economy and almost every living human being are going to be tremendous. We're going back to the future folks, 1929 is right around the corner...

The most troubled sector of the housing market, the one that will fall first and fastest, is the condominium market. Typically cheaper than houses and easier to buy, sell or rent out, condos are catnip for investors.

"I estimate that 80 percent of the sales in Miami went to investors at the peak of the market," says Lewis Goodkin, a consultant to condo developers. The problem is that investors tend to bolt when trouble looms.

Gary Bahadur, 32, who owns a computer networking company in Los Angeles, bought six condos in California over the past few years. Now he's putting them all up for sale.

"I'm getting out of California because it's topped out," he says, "The prices are so high that investors can no longer buy a condo and rent it to cover the mortgage."

Yet even as speculators flee, developers keep throwing up condos at a breakneck pace, in part because if they have already bought the land and poured the foundation, they have no choice but to finish the project.

Unsold condos are piling up. In the Miami area 25,000 new units are under construction, and another 25,000 are approved. Yet the Miami market absorbed only 10,500 new condos in the past decade.

It's the bright side of our gloomy outlook: The bargains are coming.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

WASHINGTON, May 5 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Friday "excessive" portfolio holdings at government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) pose a systemic risk to the financial system

Smart Grid blogger said...

Toll Brothers gives dim view of home sales
Builder's forecast seen as yet another sign of slowing housing market

Updated: 11:10 a.m. ET May 5, 2006

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12644758/

Dave Barnes said...

An interesting table is at: http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/03/real_estate/house_price_predictions_for_2006/index.htm and it says: "prices to INCREASE in Phoenix in 2006"

This seems very strange to me.

Anonymous said...

Ditto to another person's suggestion: SOMEONE START A FORECLOSURE BLOG! ESPECIALLY GEARED TO FIRST TIME HOME BUYERS WHO HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO BUY FOR WHAT SEEMS FOREVER!

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To everyone out there who likes this suggestion, start repeating this request on every bubble blog and comment section so someone who has had experience with the late 80's-early 90's in the mortgage industry, government, etc. will finally see the need and hopefully respond with a blog!

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