Well, it's here.
The housing bubble has burst
The US dollar has lost its credibility
Investors are desperately seeking safe havens and alternative stores of value
The people have lost confidence in their government, their leaders and their institutions
It's morning in America. A new day has dawned. Are you ready?
May 11, 2006
For eight months we've been talking about "that day" - predicting it would come
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27 comments:
people are getting killed out there
ignorance is NOT bliss
just recently in the past couple of weeks reading your stories, I smell panic
just a whiff, but I can smell it. gold skyrocketing is the view of people running to higher ground. the smarter ones at the front of the pack
This is indeed a red-letter day in the market. . .the real thing to watch is the 10 year note. . .next week fixed mortgages will increase significantly based on that. . .all those re-adjusting ARMS will try to flee to fixed which will be 6.75!!! . . .the end IS here. . .I am officially a renter (escrow closed just in time). . .on to San Diego to rent for a song (landlord is subsidizing me $1000 a month based on her costs). . .my oil stocks are soaring, GLD is soaring. . .hate to dance on the grave of other people, but I have been a "voice in the wilderness" for over two years!
I said this week would be a week of action...
moved $25,000 out of US $ into Euros today via FXE, $15,000 into British Pounds Monday. Bought $5000 worth of BEARX. Picked up that $15,000 of SLV Monday.
Still have too many US$ though, looking for more moves, especially shorts or puts
It's gonna be bumpy for a bit I think
Short PHM
I'v been telling this guy i work with to stay put, rent another year NO, he want to buy. his lease is up in 1 month, now he's gonna rush in. Stupid people in this country, they have no idea whats happening. he will blow his entier 35 k saving and double his monthly nut.
jeez.
send him the link to this blog. that'll wake him up (if he's not a complete fool)
Prices will start to decline when we have a 9 month supply of unsold houses on the market. We're not there yet, but it's on the horizon. All of us bubblesitters, shall be rewarded for our patience.
There is still alot of money out there and lenders geting creative to pump more in. We have a way to go before the posibility of panic selling and lost opportunity in the job market from diminished returns.
nice post Keith......
still a long way to go before Dow hits 8800 though as you predicted at the beginning of the year
The plummeting markets are a thing of beauty because it will snowball as the losers that have adj. rate mtg's get nervous about their 401k's getting hammered and start running for cover and pulling their $ out to a safer fund thus accelerating the snowball. It sure is great having a gov't retirement vs the 401K losers out there.
Dow and nasdaq to ZERO. YES!!!!! I would love to see a juicy 40% reaming to send people crashing to earth. My poker account is doing rather nicely too. Tax FREE.
you all are the same who:
- Bet on the "Don't Come" in Craps
- Leave a 10% (or none) tip
- Short sell stock
- Hope people die so you can get their rent-control apartments
enjoy living your life this way
Those foreclosure auctions are so much fun. The excitement level in the auction hall is sky-high with people bidding wildly. In fact, the bidding can get so intense that auction assistants are employed to help the bidders remain rational....
And lots and lots of deals......especially in fixer upper type properties.
Highly recommended!
Sold my last house a month ago in LA. Bought a couple of K of silver and around 50 OZ of gold when the price was still reasonable.
I sold my gold stocks today, I do feel a short term bubble comming in the metals. All it will take is old Ben to come out and make some stupid comment, and the whole thing will crash. Once that happens, I'll jump back in the ship.
what a bunch of losers said...
you all are the same who:
- Bet on the "Don't Come" in Craps
- Leave a 10% (or none) tip
- Short sell stock
- Hope people die so you can get their rent-control apartments
enjoy living your life this way
Yep. So? This planet needs 5.5 billion humanoids to die off so that it can sustain a humanoid population AFTER the oils runs out. Sooner the better.
"keith, keith, keith. Buyin' at the highs. You ought to be careful with that."
Yeah, my 160% gain on COP (so far) and 40% gain on my foreign funds - that's buying at the top, you're right.
Oh, and my 12% gain on gold so far - yup, that's the top.
Keith, your GLD call last month was good, but COP has been for sheeet.
This blog started in Nov ......right? How has COP done in that time (compared to market)?
cop's big run up was right before that... up 100% last 2 years
of course
The "soft landing" theory of housing it that it will slow down not drop because the job market is "so good.". . .but in all the bubble areas, about 20 to 30% of jobs are in real-estate and real estate services such a title, etc. construction, remodeling, etc. Everyone now has a granite kitchen top and new cabinets. . .SO with home equity line of credit now at 8%, who will have money for remodeling and new construction. . .also with home values even flat, no "cash out" loans are available. . .SO the "soft landing" theory doesn't work if 20% of the jobs are gone.
Good point Mark. Those jobs getting clobbered, along with people not being able to use their house as an ATM, will have a damaging effect on the economy. The kicker is whether those factors will spill over into business investment that is not directly related to retailing. If it does, we will have a recession. I strongly believe that by May 2008, we will be in a recession.
For the poster who mentioned something negative about shorting stocks...may you suggest some stocks you think will go up in the next 12 months that are not in the energy sector? This is why I short stock sometimes...it's hard to see what will go up in these uncertain times.
This stock has averaged an 8% return a year since 1910:
SPY
This one is pretty good too:
DIA
Is that the sun off in a distance...or a nuclear fireball?
RUN FOR THE HILLS
IT'S TIME TO
. P A N I C
. P A N I C
. P A N I C
. P A N I C
. P A N I C
. P A N I C
. P A N I C
. P A N I C
out of USD and into Physical PM
"Investors are desperately seeking safe havens and alternative stores of value
The people have lost confidence in their government, their leaders and their institutions"
it sounds like what the German people felt in the last days of the third Reich.
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