You won't see it reported correctly in the MSM, where they'll incorrectly compare Q1 median price 2006 to Q1 median price 2005, stupidly and lazily as the rip-and-read MSM tends to do.
Do you compare the cost of Pepsi in the supermarket against a year ago, or last week? Do you compare the cost of a new car vs. a year ago, or the price you saw it for last month. Exactly.
Here's the truth
Q3 2005 $227,600
Q4 2005 $225,300
Q1 2006: $217,900
Gee, I think there might be a trend there. Yes, Virginia, housing prices do decline.
Finally, here's the lipstick on the pig from the corrupt David Lereah of the NAR - which again, the lazy MSM picks up without questioning:
"With the supply of homes picking up very nicely in many areas of the country, pressure is coming off of home prices," Lereah said. "By the time we report second-quarter data, I expect most areas will be returning to normal rates of price growth in the single-digit range. Consumers generally can expect normal price appreciation for the foreseeable future, providing solid returns over time."
Can someone wake the MSM up? Good god talk about lazy and incompetent. Doesn't anyone go to journalism school anymore? Or do they all just reprint NAR press releases?
May 16, 2006
FLASH: US Median Single Family Home Price Falls Again
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16 comments:
It makes sense to compare sales to the same time last year, but not prices.
Great post Keith.
In general the MSM has been doing a lousy job covering the housing market over the past 4 years.
David
Bubble Meter Blog
and that's why people have turned to the blogs in mass (and also turned off the msm)
April housing starts, permits drop
Report signals further cooling of once-hot real estate market
Updated: 9:05 a.m. ET May 16, 2006
MSNBC Real Estate
"Be patient. Even comparing yoy, you'll only have to wait another few months for every media outlet to report crashing home valuations"
True.
the msm is controlled by a very few large corporations,and is dependent on advertising,real estate ads in my local paper probably amount to 50% of their revenue...jobs are hard to get in the news biz...trash the biggest revenue source of your employer and see who thanks you...
excuse my ignorance, what is msm?
msm = main stream media
my prediction:
natl median price falls to 180k
= 3 x median household income
= long-term housing trendline
Your post could have read:
FLASH: Home Prices Already Drop $10,000 From the Bubble's High
I used to date a girl that looked like that. I'm glad to see she is doing well.
Roid
Surprise surprise, I don't agree.
Nation wide, real estate is generally much more active in the late spring and through the summer.Seasonality will impact volume and median price and so year/year data is more relevant than quarterly or monthly changes.
I don't really have time to do the digging. Does anybody know if there have been greater month/month or quarter/quarter changes in national median sale price? If so, how much and when?
I wouldn't be suprised to see greater drops/increases in the last 10 years.
Osman:
more active = more people buying and more people SELLING = no real reason for prices to rise, no? I know median prices do tend to have similar fluctuations compared to other years. I think the primary reason spring/summer seasons are most active (especially here in sunny so cal) is due to kids being between school years. Families with kids need more room = more expensive homes = higher median prices.
Anyways, I think Qtr to Qtr is better then YoY for analyzing trends. But QtrX to QtrY compared to last years QtrX to QtrY IMO is even better.
YoY here last summer was ~16%, now its hovering around 10%. From that you can tell there is downward momentum, but somebody can spin that as "HOUSING UP 10%!!!!" The headlines will look fine until you see -YOY to the masses, but people with a closer watch will know the market turned 10 months ago.
I used to date a girl that looked like that. I'm glad to see she is doing well.
Roid
Daddy is that really you???
"With the supply of homes picking up very nicely in many areas of the country, pressure is coming off of home prices," Lereah said.
WOW!!!!!
Did he hear what he said????
Maybe he meant "With the GLUT of overpriced homes up for sale, a collapse in prices and the real estate market as a whole is right around the corner."
iwishitweretrue:
I doubt your talking to this Keith simply because I don't know how you came to your conclusions of what I meant from what I said.
I'm interested in the future, not the present. Would you keep investing in real estate until you didn't increase your equity every month? By that time it would be too late, and you couldn't realize all the gains you thought you had.
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