Remember in 2001, after the dot-com collapse, the sales lots full of reposessed Porsches and Mercedes? Remember the brand new office complexes sitting empty? Remember the monthly layoff numbers? Remember the liquidations? Remember the state budgets that were decimated by the rapid drop in receipts?
Sometimes it seems so long ago. Other times it seems like yesterday.
Well, this new bubble collapse will create an even bigger, even deeper reaction.
What will it look like? What will be some of the repercussions? Take out your crystal ball and get on record with your prognostications now.
May 13, 2006
After the housing crash
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
27 comments:
That dot com crash was nothing compared to what is coming. Many people were not affected. Housing will hurt EVERYONE.
Marketwatch.
Hummer bummer
GM moves to end production
of giant H1 vehicle in June.
I bought a one year old Corvette in 2003 from a consignment lot near Palo Alto. . .I had a choice of about 10 Vettes within a few miles on the El Camino. . .so many turn-ins from Dot.bomb. . .I owned mostly boring Utility stocks and stupid oil company stocks during that period. . .ok, I did buy a few dot.coms. . .but knew from the getgo they were crap, and sold as soon as I had a profit. . .
house price pullbacks of 10% in some markets. flat in others. dollar falls 20%. stock market corrects 20%. no recession, or mild recession. Repubs keep congress with a smaller margin. Dem wins white house in 08. gold hits 850, then pulls back to 650. does not run up to 1000. real estate stagnates 5-7 years. doomsayers proven wrong yet again.
The real impact of the housing bubble won't be felt for another 12-18 months. Americans were pulling hundreds of billionS of equity dollars out of their properties every year through refis and HELOCs. That money will be gone from the economy at the same time inflation kicks the sh#t out of retail prices.
The double whammy will leave politicians and economists scratching their heads wondering why Dick and Jane can live in a McMansion, drive a Hummer and Benz, but cant afford to buy Wal-Mart milk for their kids.
I was in Durango, CO last weekend and heard several shop owners grumbling about how business was way down compared to last year. The owner of the small hotel we stayed at said the same thing. Regulars he counted on for years were not making Summer reservations.
California known as the land of foreclosure.
Economy in deep depression.
Fed prints money to help everyone.
Causes great inflation.
US Dollar continues to plummet.
Long term interest rates spike.
Inflation runs rampant.
Fed eventually has to issue new currency to revalue the dollar which brings inflation to an end.
Don't think it can happen. Read about Germany in the 20's. Their debt less than ours.
California known as the land of foreclosure.
Economy in deep depression.
Fed prints money to help everyone.
Causes great inflation.
US Dollar continues to plummet.
Long term interest rates spike.
Inflation runs rampant.
Fed eventually has to issue new currency to revalue the dollar which brings inflation to an end.
Don't think it can happen. Read about Germany in the 20's. Their debt less than ours.
Keith,
I just send you an email at housingpanic@yahoo.com. Is that address good?
I'M NOT SEEING PRICE DROPS EXCEPT IN SOME CONDO VACATION AREAS. NO GLOOM AND DOOM. UTAH SEATTLE MAUI SOCAL(VALENCIA, PASADENA, SAN FERNANDO VALLEY, CULVER CIY AREA, WOODLAND HILLS ETC) RENO, AUSTIN NO PRICE DROPS.
hey keith , love the content and the blog as you know, but she is loading slow these days, try turning all you images into *.PNG and see if the blog loads faster.
just a sugesstion, now tell me to go to hell
hahahah!
The reason the crash in the 30s was so devasting was because people were losing their homes. Losing millions in "paper profit" and luxury cars (from the dot.com bubble) is upsetting. Losing your home and wondering where your family is going to LIVE is much scarier. There are also a lot of baby boomers (including my parents) who bought a second 'retirement home' because they were sure they would be "priced out forever." Among this generation, there is a lot more shame about foreclosure . Because of this, I actually worry about a lot of suicides associated with this crash.
I think the personal pain and tragedy will be great. I think it will affect almost everyone in some way.
My crystal ball says: we're screwed. It will be a pain in the rear trying to get employment in the next few years, the dollar will be a joke, and millions will be wiped out by the housing bubble stupidity. On the upside, those who have gold should be able to sell it and pay off most or all of their debts.
post after post of BS- the GOP will be toast in the fall and in 2008
just used to it
I'm not quite so sure.
Depends upon how the immigration issue plays out. People are royally torqued at the illegal immigration problem, and the Dems are seen as illegal-friendly (which for the most part they are).
Meanwhile, the House GOP has a reputation for being hard on illegals, while both Bush and the Senate GOP are like the Dems... willing to allow illegals to stay in the country.
My guess is that the GOP will get its butt kicked in the Senate races, and may lose control of the Senate. But I'm not so sure about the House since many GOP congressmen are anti-illegal.
But the "core base" of the Dems are becoming more "anti-illegal" all the time. That will change the party line, though it takes time.
i'm all for the gop getting the sack - but to vote for the dems???? hell no. please everybody vote third party - and send a message that neither of the corruption laden parites is acceptable. it is our only hope. i see eventually the masses up and the two corrupt elite political parties disappearing. i think the masses will give them one last chance - and probably the dems will get it in 2008.
i also see a change in ownership of this country's real estate. asians and middle easterners with worthless dollars will be coming in and buying up real estate to escape further loss of value of their paper dollars - and the masses will be paying rent which will be going to europe and asia. we deserve it. we are so so conceited. always thinking we can save the world. i have a feeling it will be along time before the rest of the world even wants to pretend to help out those poor stupid insolent lazy americans.
Boy, those laptops are getting cheaper everyday...
http://smhbn.blogspot.com/
Southern, MD, Housing Bubble News
Never before has housing been 18%of GDP, never before has home ownership been over 70%, never before since the 20's has so much leverage been used to buy a house, and never before has the US seen the shitstorm that is going to hit us.
Ok samll story but reality , ya ya I have abuzz what ever...captin and coke....captin morgan that is,,,ya sure ok~!
First time in a supermarket, 'U' KNOW the food store, Inflation is out of control. Seen it first hand, I have not been in a grocery store in 4 months no bullshit, foood prices are wayout what i Never expected no bullshit....we are in for a major correction along the line here...
2006 will be an interesting year. The Re bubble impending implosion, illegals marching thru the streets demanding rights, Iran saber-rattling, gas prices thru the roof, Realters and illegal construction workers out of work, consumer spending goes dry, dollars collapses, inflation rampant, truckers angry over fuel costs, Americans angry over pending amnesty to ilegals, stocks collapsing, ARM's going up, Heloc ATM squeezed dry, foreclosures thru the roof, Duke rape allegations, ect. ect. What i see is a major stock collapse in Oct 2006, followed by a recession which will start late in 2006 or early 2007. GOP loses seats in 2006, and Bush becomes a lame duck last two years and nothing gets done as both parties bicker and argue to a stalemate.
load up on canned tuna and 9mm
2006 is the year the where Real Estate levels off and the credit is taken away, driving prices down for 2007.
2007 is where the effects of this credit being taken away among overcapacity and other little stinkers that occur during a Real Estate recession. Job layoffs in RE will occur, which will trickle and jump to other business like Carpenters, Home Service, Air Conditioner Manfucturers(hey, it is close to summer lol), Home Improvement ete ete ete.
So can the rest of the economy hold up without housing? Without housing growth in Q1 2006, the growth rate would have been 3.1%. Q4 2005 would have been NEGATIVE growth!!!!!
We are entering interesting times........
It will look like something between the dot com implosion and the great depression. Oh yeah, someone tell Buffy, the Realtor,
"I'M NOT SEEING PRICE DROPS EXCEPT IN SOME CONDO VACATION AREAS"
where her caps lock key is:
I don't get it. Last democratic president got a BJ, other than that he did a great job. Somehow now they are as bad as the current band of thiefs and religious clowns?
Third party who? The Green party with Ralph Nader? Who? Really? So far nobody has ever come up with a better plan just a bunch of oppositional crap.
Libertarians? You mean like (f)Tucker Carlson?
Husband and I went to the Honda Dealer in Auburn,CA looking at CRV's last week. The salesman said they had 0 interest for 5 months if we bought that day. Asked him why they had this deal, he said it was to help people out who were taking equity lines of credit on their homes - and get them into a Honda. To tell you the truth, we dont own a home, or need to buy a new car RIGHT NOW, but wow, how is that for instant gradification?
I am starting to notice more advertising about saving money. What a relief.....Not alot yet, but its happening. Hopefully soon, McMansions will be "out of style" while living within your means and saving money will be the new trend. Yipee! finally I will stop looking frugal-it will be the norm. People will get more creative instead of running out and buying that new gadget because they think they need it.
For the big picture: Illegal problems will get worse with escalating crime, threats of war with Iran will replace RE talk, inflation will skyrocket, but so will gold.
Nice colors. Keep up the good work. thnx!
»
Nice colors. Keep up the good work. thnx!
»
Looks nice! Awesome content. Good job guys.
»
This site is one of the best I have ever seen, wish I had one like this.
»
Post a Comment