Keeping HP'ers up to date with any moves I make (full disclosure and all). Buying high, and GLD may fall back a bit before consolidating and moving higher, but I feel it's going much, much, much higher over the next 5 years.
So the portfolio is 1500 shares COP, 1000 shares GLD, 1000 shares Vanguard International Growth VWIGX, and a relative few shares of AAPL, SBUX, YHOO, EBAY, EWJ, EWC AND DIS, and the majority still 4.75% US $ cash.
I also sent in my Everbank application (see link to the right) - gonna move out of US$ and into Canadian $, Yen and Euros
Some days will be up, some days will be down, but I'm trying to get this portfolio right for what's happening long term - the decline of the US$, the decline of the US economy, the decline of the US markets, and an explosion in Oil and Gold.
If the Fed doesn't keep raising, Inflation will serioulsy spin out of control and the US$ will seriously spin into oblivion. Thus Oil and Gold. I'm not sure the Fed has the guts to do what's right - as the pressure is enormous before an election to not destroy the economy and housing.
Away we go. Any and all advice appreciated.
April 19, 2006
Picked up 1000 shares of GLD this morning
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34 comments:
Who said Fed won`t raise rates...read this --->
Core inflation posts biggest gain in a year
Talk about buying high...
Anon 7:51:08 AM -
He didn't buy high.
The tidal wave into metals just got started.
Keith -
If you are truly in for the long term (10+ years), then I would suggest buying some physical metal. At least just a little.
That means gold will pullback and be going lower for a liitle while.
That means gold will pullback and be going lower for a liitle while.
while the inflation argument has a lot more going for it, i still think you need 10% of your portfolio in a deflation hedge like medium term zero coupon bonds.
Howdy Keith,
It is better to buy on the way up than on the way down. I have 32 years experience trading precious metals.
Wall Street has made it easy for you to buy gold by making it a call item. This has been a big part of the new demand. Do not worry; the stupid money hasn’t even begun to buy into it. Keep a close eye on it. When it does go down it will be in big chunks. I expect the young inexperienced traders to continue to base their decisions on the historic 80’s prices from the Hunt scandal not knowing what caused them. They will look at the historic highs and figure adjusted for inflation and make buy recommendations. Gold is a no brainer for $1000 and silver for $30. I am in a different situation than you. Since I take actual possession of the metal I like owning it at any price. My play in your scenario would be to dump the paper at the high, wait several years or a decade for the bottom, and then buy the actual metal next time. This way you are trading junk paper (dollars and stocks) for a tangible international asset.
Keith,
If you are going to play PM's, I would round it out with the up and coming miners - NTO, TGB, and CGR. With China and India coming on there is a whole bunch of growing demand in this sector.
Big mistake because GLD is just a paper chase controlled by the Federal Reserve and DTCC to sucker money out of clueless Americans. If the sh*t hits the fan in this country, you will never see any gains from this fund because Uncle Sam will make damn sure people like you don't "profit" from the emergency.
Buy shares in ETFs like CEF where the assets backing them are out of the control of the U.S. Government or the Federal Reserve!
Keith -
It is interesting how you change your picks every month hoping that your readers have short memories......what happened to the picks you made in March? In case you forgot, you were advocating selling short GM, PMI, TGIC, CFC, FBR, FNM and FRE.
http://www.blogger.com/
comment.g?blogID=18675105
&postID=114294170542585288
Anyways, I hope the picks you made in April do better than the picks you made in March. If not, I am sure you'll have new picks for us in May.
BUY Silver before the Super Spike.I watch CNBC and follw Jim Crammer ..He was on Lettermen the other night and said house prices are going to fall. I think the masses are finally realizing housing is going to go flat and then bust..The guys on cnbc are alittle to bullish on stocks and think inflation is contained..Thats BS..Most people in the real world "not the New York elite" dont have a pot to piss in. Gold will keep going and Silver will explode in IMO.
Take a look at RSNRX. Good performance in the area of Global Natural Resources.
You can check out my blog. I have been investing in commodity producers for several years. Our model portfolio is up well over 100% last year with some picks up over 400%.
Good logic: "If you don't trust gold, do you trust the logic of taking a beautiful pine tree, worth about $4,000 - $5,000, cutting it up, turning it into pulp and then paper, putting some ink on it and then calling it one billion dollars?"
Kenneth J. Gerbino
Good thread Keith.
Alright, so I have a question for the group as I am also looking to put some money in CD's of different currencies.
In the US, it's easy to compare CD's as you can just look at the yield that the Treasury is paying on similar offerings by various institutions.
Does anyone know how you do this for foreign currencies? For example, EverBank is offering a 2.25% yield on a 6 month CD for the Canadian Dollar. How does this rate compare to what other institutions are offering? Is EverBank competitive with their rates?
Keith, I agree with you on your dollar outlook. I just loaded up on some silver again today. These markets are amazing and the bull run is just starting. Gold will run like a bull for at least the next three years. Silver too, I hope. I personally like the physical stuff. I don't trust anyone. Especially the govt when it comes to gold.
Tom
holy shit, it just rang 642 an ounce and silver is well on its way to 15! God I'm glad I bought last month. Kicking myself that I only put 1/3 of my money into metals and oil.
Anyone that wants to read about silver should study Ted Butler he is the main man when you do your DD on silver. His esays are published at http://www.investmentrarities.com/ The economics of silver far surpass any current investment. Thats economics not hype or herd mentality. Read his current work then go back in his archive. He is nothing but the most logical and dilligent in his reaserch. Good luck to all
Palladium like silver is going parabolic. Palladium unlike silver is easy to store and it was the number one choice for catalitic converters until it spiked over $1090 due to a Russian sqeeze. Now that it is 1/3 the cost of platimun not double as it was another spike is eminent. The white metals are hottttt. Gold is the weak sister in the group.
The straight-up action starting at 2 PM today was absolutely scary -- and I'm long! Volume simply doubled and tripled in the blink of an eye and stayed that way all the way to the close.
They're just about out of control; I'm starting to think that they might just start gapping up a percent or so every day for a month.
But no mention on the radio news of the XAU index hitting an all-time high today. I can't believe that gold is completely "off the radar" with its action of the past month.
bvest-
China's middle class is now at over 200 million. That's 2/3 of the whole US population.
India's middle class is also much bigger than what we think. Tho I don't remember the numbers.
Japan is finally coming out of the doldrums. Remember when the Japanese were coveted consumers all over the world?
I think there are PLENTY of up and coming consumers to replace Americans.
And they are BETTER consumers too! Because they are solvent and we are not.
Personally, I'd rather sell to people who actually have the money to buy.
The whole credit thing is looking iffy at this point.
I honestly wish you picked GLD 2 in February 2005.
New hit TV show:
Hu's the Boss
As in Chinese Premier Hu Jintao.
bvest wrote...
".... much of the run up in metals is a direct result of the huge demand for the stuff from the global real estate boom. As this demand cools (ie when the real estate bubble bursts) the metals markets (im thinking copper) may very well tank as well - no demand."
Believe it or not, this is not bearish for silver, since most current silver production is byproduct silver dumped onto the market by copper miners...
demand for metals to use as metals is one thing. demand for gold as a store of value and quasi-world-currency is a whole 'nother thing
What's going on with CEF some people here are recommending as physical gold/silver this AM (-7%) ? Maybe the effect of
http://money.cnn.com/services/tickerheadlines/mw/06122545.htm,
which IMHO means dilution of shares ?
keith - you have an uncanny ability to get into stocks right at the peak...
GLD is down 3% today.....your 1000 shares is worth $600 less than it was yesterday.
Ouch!
GLD STREETTRACKS GOLD 61.35 -3.76%
Ouch!!!
GLD STREETTRACKS GOLD 61.35 -3.76%
"What's going on with CEF [...] IMHO means dilution of shares ?"
Nice try at FUD Bubba, here is the real scoop on CEF:
"11 April 2006, 1:16pm ET
Central Fund of Canada Limited (TSE:CEF.NV.A)(TSE:CEF.NV.U)(AMEX: CEF) is pleased to announce that CIBC World Markets Inc. has fully exercised its option to purchase an additional 418,462 Class A shares, for additional gross proceeds of approximately U.S.$3.7 million to Central Fund. CIBC World Markets Inc. agreed this morning to underwrite 2,789,750 Class A shares for gross proceeds of U.S.$24,410,313.
The underwritten price of U.S.$8.75 per Class A share was non-dilutive and accretive for the existing shareholders of Central Fund. The additional net proceeds have been substantially invested in gold and silver bullion in accordance with Central Fund's Articles of Incorporation and stated investment policy. It is anticipated that this additional capital will reduce the operating expense ratio in favour of the existing and new Shareholders of Central Fund. "
No dillution to existing shareholders. CEF is down today because gold and silver are down - duh-oh
What a difference a Day makes..Gold UP 12.90..Yesterday they really shaked all the nervous nellies out of the gold bull market..I hope the shorts started to cover their gold and silver postions..I tell you 75 oil is gonna really hurt the economy big time and we are almost in Hurricane season. After the Run lately in the stock market when earnings season comes to an end..there is going to be nothing but bad news out of the economy ie Housing Pain..Go for the Gold
I went into Gold in late 2004, for the same reasons you have subscribed to. I certainly don't question the logic of being in gold, the issue I have is whether it is better to be in physical and equities.
My only concern is that gold equities may sink initially when the stock market does its broad inevitable adjustment. There might be an ideal time after this to move from physical gold into equity and maximise you asset allocation returns with the same overall investment direction.
Gold equities are still trailing the gold price per se, but I don't find that entirely confusing as bullion doesn't pay a dividend.
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