The only reason the Fed stops now is... someone told them too (there is an election coming up and the GOP ain't lookin too hot)
Folks, with all time high oil prices, inflation is gonna blow (and gold prices with it). It's even too late for the Fed to catch up unless they move 1 point, not 1/4 point, next meeting
Go COP!
April 18, 2006
Oil hits ALL TIME HIGH today.. yup, there's no inflation risk - go ahead and stop raising rates
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19 comments:
GOLD, OIL, GASOLINE prices at all time high.... for April and report was that of March !!!
Inflationary pressures... will force FED to increase rates !!!
aren't rates being increased to support the dollar? After today it doesn't seem likely that that will stop anytime soon....
Increasing commodities prices is a direct result of the weakening USD.
Real estate insiders go bearish in blogs
In mostly anonymous postings, agents are reporting big problems in the markets.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
April 18, 2006: 9:57 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - If the secret worries of real estate professionals are any indication, home prices could be heading for a swoon.
When Brad Inman of Inman News, which tracks the real estate industry and is widely read by industry insiders, recently gave real estate agents the opportunity to blog about market conditions, they almost uniformly described them as bad – and getting worse.
"Normally, brokers and agents tend to sugarcoat the news; they don't want to affect consumer confidence," says Inman. "By letting them post anonymously, we gave them a way to really share their thoughts."
Most responded with tales of high inventories, slow sales and languishing prices.
Here's a sampling of their comments:
"Portland, Oregon is mixed . . . more inventory, sitting longer. . . . Sellers no longer king." Posted by anonymous.
"Minneapolis/St.Paul . . . 15 houses per buyer. If we had buyers. Huge inventory in every price range. More foreclosure properties coming on daily." Posted by anonymous.
"East Central Florida Coastal area inventories up four times year to year and sales down 75%." Posted by Ramon Rivera (Not all bloggers craved anonymity).
"Some Realtors, Mortgage Brokers & some clients have been more testy than in months previous. Something is in the air." Posted by S. Crowe.
"Northern Ca. Let's not beat around the bush here. There is a slow down!! Home prices are not going up. Sales are down." Posted by anonymous.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/18/real_estate/agents_bearish_in_blogs/index.htm
Hold on a moment … who the hell are these morons that keep telling us there is no GD inflation?
CPI .50%, Core rate .10%. The Core Rate of inflation is complete fraud used to make WS happy and screw the average Joe. These cockroaches want us to believe that 3 dollar gasoline is not inflationary. These mother f_cking liars need to be replaced.
One more point; the stock market is being propped up by these liars.
Hey maybe soon Mexico won’t want dollars and the illegal alien dilemma will be solved.
Hey if a dollar is only worth ten cents then our budget is balanced because we can pay it with food stamps.
Anonymous you are so right about the liars on wallstreet. Even the lying spin doctors at Bloomberg had to admit that the FED core CPI is just a fabricated index to appease the wallstreet moneymen. Check out this link...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&sid=aC9ifJTez_Ak&refer=columnist_wasik
Who cares if the price of a pair sneakers is going up a mere .1% from the previous when the items that matter to consumers: housing, healthcare, childcare, education and energy are all spiraling way beyond employee wages. Clearly what is operating is a form of collusion: the moneyman all "agree" that the core CPI is the key index and will trade based on it rather than the real macroeconomic changes reflected by the soaring costs of commodities.
Keith,
Couple ideas for you to write about:
1. Cinco de Mayo. Encourage everyone to boycott ALL businesses that are pushing this Mexican holiday on Americans.
2. Exxon. Encourage everyone NOT to buy gas from them ever again. It's the ONLY way to make a dent in one of the oil company's pockets.
Exxon is but a spec in the oil world. How abou BP, Total Fina, Ptero China, COP and the rest of them?
If you want to hurt them then take mass transit or carpool if you live far away from work. Fortunately I only live 5 minutes from work.
poweredchicken
why increase in the money supply CAUSING rising prices ?
The core CPI was installed to show what the CPI would like without the volatile components of food and energy prices. However, I think the core number is unreliable if the volatile components KEEP GOING UP. With energy prices continuing to go up as much as they have, these inflationary pressures cannot be ignored for too long.
rising commodity prices aren't caused by a weakening dollar since most of them are priced in $ already. If it was a weakening dollar they could be stable in $USD, but rising in all other currencies.
That's nonsense. Commodities aren't "priced" in US$, they're just quoted in US$ because everyone knows what the US$ is worth in terms of their own currency. If Saudia Arabia fixed the price of oil in US$ that would be another story. Oil (and every other commodity) doesn't have a fixed price in US$ (or any other currency) - it has a market price, and the currencies themselves have market prices against each other.
If the US$ drops against other major currencies, the price of global commodities will rise in US$ terms. And that's just what has happened over the last few years.
Keith, don't write that "someone told" the Fed not to raise rates. That only makes you look like a jackass. The Fed is independent. The question of political pressure on the Fed is an interesting one, but they do not, contrary to your misinformed conspiracist's view, take direction from dark powers behind the scenes. The more I read this blog, the more I think I must be wasting my time with nitwits.
The more I read this blog, the more I think I must be wasting my time with nitwits.
Be careful, if you see one you might be one.
powderedchicken,
What do you mean by a weakened dollar does not cause commodities to rise? If the USD is inflated by 100% then oil will be twice as expensive in USD. It won't be too long before countries start to dump the weakened USD if the Fed goes through with this insane idea to stop strengthening the dollar. If China, SK and Japan start dumping the USD, then all hell will break loose. Bernanke will be 100% responsible for it although he won't feel the pain
I'm in Gold and short the dollar and doing very well, thanks. I think the housing bubble thesis is correct and I did before ever reading this blog. It's not the thesis I question, but the foolhardy conspiracy-mongering and gumball economics that is so lovingly spouted by many of the personalities here, starting with Keith. The housing market is going to collapse; that will not mean that all the foolish crap pushed on this blog will be vindicated -- it will not mean that the Fed was taking direction from the proverbial man behind the curtain -- it will only mean that the overriding thesis was right. And it is right, as we shall soon see, if we have not already seen.
The Fed has two choices. Keep increasing the short rates (recession) or see a global run on the US$ (major inflation, long rates going into orbit, figure out the consequences of that one).
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