Looking for great picks, not a day-trade with daily "you're a fool" updates from trolls.
One stock that ten years from now you'd look like a genius if you bought it today, and one stock that should be bankrupt or gone by then.
Take your best shot.
My picks:
Buy: Apple.
Loved it the past year. Love it today. Love those ipods. Love Steve Jobs. Love the Disney and Pixar connection. Love Ive. Love the idea of a world of ipod users buying macs. Love the downfall of Microsoft. Love what they're doing with Intel. Love the itunes monopoly. Love the brand. Housing bubble pops, but people still buy ipods.
Sell: GM
Has to go bankrupt. Is raising cash as fast as they can selling off the pieces, but has to go Chapter 11 because of pensions, period. The fact that they make cars nobody wants hurts too. And have a visionless CEO. And overpaid workers. And didn't embrace hybrids. Could take 2 years. Could take 5 years. But the day will come and this stock will go to $0. Housing bubble pops, and no more cash-out refis paying for SUVs.
33 comments:
keith - i thought the fidelity guy drove you out of the stock picking biz.......you are taking it up again?
oh, my COP is almost at an all-time high again, the builders got a nice 50% haircut from their highs, and gold is approaching $600.
I'm doing just fine.
But getting the itch to put some cash to work. Looking for some picks with sound arguments.
You never want to buy a stock like "Apple", long on hype and dreams and profitable but just over valued. What happens when almost everyone has an IPod? What happens when some other co. makes a competing product for cheaper?
I would buy COP or other oil company.
If there is a deep recession even those might now do that well, but right now they're very cheap.
Start looking for any company that is unrelated to high end merchandise. As this bubble mania winds down people won't have tons of $$ to spend on expensive "entry-level" luxury goods. WalMart is looking like a power play here.
These goofs that have spent their refi $$ on depreciating goods will flood the market sending resale values crashing on everything from Rolexes, plasma-tvs, John Deere riding lawnmowers, Apple computers, pickup trucks, ATVs, campers, boats, old muscle cars, designer furniture. Go to some overpriced suburban open houses. See what they have that you want. Wait to buy until the panic sets in next year and go back to the garage sale and buy it. May have to buy their pickup truck as well to get it all home.
Ahhhh...I'll finally be able to get a new truck for pennies on the dollar. Maybe I'll pick up a nice camper to go with it. If I'm unfortunate I may also get a super-nice Donzi boat as well.
I forgot to add that when interest rates go sky high to counter China's reduction in treasury purchases, it will be just as beneficial to have money in a savings acct as to have stock and housing investments. Who would have thunk it?
Buy: XOM (largest petroleum reserves)
Sell: LEND (or another subprime lender)
If you like Apple then why not like Disney? 10 years and they may be the same company anyway. Apple is currently richly priced and irregularly gets punished by market manipulation. Patience and buy two APPL the next time this happens rather than one APPL now.
>> What happens when almost everyone has an IPod?
Their revenues will be 20x what they are now? You tell me.
"when interest rates go sky high to counter China's reduction in treasury purchases, it will be just as beneficial to have money in a savings acct as to have stock and housing investments."
Yes..then we can be making 15% interest in a crashed currency?
Apple is another fad stock. It's trendy to go to cocktail parties and tell your snobby wine-sipping friends that you own Apple, Google, and the like. That's how the last dot-com bubble got started.
Apple has been "a fad stock" for decades. A decent rational company with a decent understandable corporate mission and history. Perfect? No. Overpriced? Yes. Fad? Yes, just like rock'n'roll.
Buy EMFP and then sell it three months after the Bird Flu Pandemic has started.
LOL... get in on the "bird flu" bubble before its too late. That also includes shorting airlines and leisure stocks as people will stop vacationing.
Anyone else have any good bird flu stock tips?
Buy the best gold stock: GG
and the best silver stocks: SLW, SSRI
and watch them triple again in 1 to 2 yrs
I invest in gold through a gold ETF (symbol: IAU). ETFs are a good vehicle to invest in commodities. I wish they had a silver ETF (but it's supposedly coming soon).
I agree with Joe on Apple. It's one of those stocks that's riding a wave of popularity that has little to do with fundamentals. But like Robert Coté pointed out - stocks can do that for a very long time.
I would look to alternative energy plays like manufacturers of PV. If you're thinking auto manufacturers, play the energy card there as well and buy hybrid market leaders like Toyota or Honda.
Sometimes there is money to be made buying a well beaten down stock like GM, but frankly I've never favored this kind of speculative investing. GM's products are also significantly behind the Japanese and rely on massive rebates to sell. If their product mix was better AND the union troubles were settled, there *could* be value with GM. But, *suprise* I agree with Keith for a change. GM's a dog.
Keith - I highly, highly doubt you made money on the "50% haircut" on housing stocks. Didn't you recommend FNM, TOL, and TGIC before the end of the year? All those stocks are either at or above their November prices....the only way you could have made money was if you were LONG on those stocks.....maybe you are fooling is all
Apple doesn't make money on the tunes, they make it on the iPod. Is iPod reproduceable? Can it be commoditized like a VCR? If so then Apple is way overpriced.
VCR and DVD players are great too. Want to buy a manufacturer of them? They're not too profitable.
Try to think more like a Contrarian. Apple's had a 800% run in the last few years and iPod's hot now but may face more competition. GM seems on the verge of bankruptcy and the stocked is priced accordingly. Buy low, sell high, not the reverse.
Anonymous (anon for a reason) said: "Is iPod reproduceable?"
In the late 70's it was asked; "Is the Apple II reproduceable?
In the late 80's it was asked; "Is the Mac reproduceable?
In the late 90's it was asked; "Is the Powermac reproduceable?
In the late 00's it was asked; "Is the iPod reproduceable?
Stop me when you see a pattern. Oh, wait. This time is different. Apple has been "a one shot stock" for decades.
Buy Conoco Phillips (COP). They are trading at 7x earnings and have been able to replace 100% of production over the last several years. As oil continues to become more and more of a scarce commodity, the potential for an oil scare is not only out there, but likely IMHO. COP's earnings are more leveraged to oil prices than any of the other major oils in my opinion, and the stock is the cheapest among all of the players.
IRBT Irobot corporation is the future. Robots are the next big thing.10-20 years it will be the company they talk about if You would have inveated 10,000 in 2006 it be worth 1,000,000 today.
GE
RNWK
love xom, love cop, love ge, love rnwk - good ideas - keep 'em coming
one thing we see here in the UK is once the bubble pops, consumer spending dries up asap - the retailers get killed. so something to think about with apple - will people buy computers, or ramen noodles, when they have no money?
but everyone has to buy gasoline. and all those damn houses built 100 miles away from the city center - more and more commuting and oil usage.
and then there's china and india.
maybe oil and gold and call it a day?
I agree Cote, but there's no visibility to the next great idea. And that's a big risk factor.
CONERGY AG, URANIUM PARTICIPATION CORP., VALERO, AND TESORO.
Got a good chunk of yamana gold and it's paying off very nicely thanks. They've had a number of shut in mines waiting to open with the gold bull. This week has been really nice to me. This is good compared to companies with a big lead time required to get mine on line.
Apple is a niche innovator. Great products but will NEVER get past thier %2 market share in ANY category because they do not have and cannot built the required infrastructure.
Apple creates killer products and then in a couple of years they get ripped off and mass marketed for %90 off.
Microsoft will rip-off Apple again with its next operating system, that is why they delayed it this year, and then will license it for cheap so that market is flooded with cheap close-enough products that Apple cannot compete with.
Now if Apple starts to license its products and give up manufacturing then perhaps they have a chance.
This has always been thier problem because if they license then they give up control over the coolness brand factor that makes apple what it is...if they do not license then they get ripped off and can never get past %2 market share long term.
Buy Mines Management (MGN) with new silver mine in Montana...or Gold Reserve (GRZ) in Venezuela (more risky , of course)
Short: GOOGLE
I have been following a site now for almost 2 years and I have found it to be both reliable and profitable. They post daily and their stock trades have been beating
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RickJ
If I spent as much time working on my own real estate sites as I do slogging thru blogging, I'd probably make more money. But I enjoy a good read. Thanks for the break. Stop by my site if you can.
Hey, you have a great blog here! I'm definitely going to bookmark you!
I have a toyota financing site.
Come and check it out if you get time :-)
Greetings.
I have been following a site now for almost 2 years and I have found it to be both
reliable and profitable. They post daily and their stock trades have been beating
the indexes easily.
Take a look at Wallstreetwinnersonline.com
RickJ
Buy healthcare related, we've got an aging population!
Then i would 'short' my manhood......oops to late!
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