Right:
1) The bloggers (housingbubble2, patrick.net, bubblemeter, anotherfu*kedborrower, HP!)
2) The Economist (my heroes, with the June 16, 2005 ultimate bubble expose)
3) Robert Shiller (my personal hero)
4) Bob Toll (hey, he cashed out at the top)
5) The 23 year old flipper who is out and rich
6) Austin, Texas and Salt Lake City (missed out on the fun, now miss out on the pain)
7) CNBC (they were all over it starting Fall 2005)
8) Signonsandiego (lots of great articles starting Fall 2005)
9) CEPR - great studies and white papers since Spring 2005
10) Adam Smith - The econ god, and no, it's still not different this time
Wrong:
1) Greenspan (recommending ARMs before 14 straight interest raises - nice job)
2) The NAR and David Lereah (and he knew it)
3) Time Magazine (infamous we love our houses cover at the peak)
4) Your realtor (and all realtors)
5) The 23 year old flipper who is still holding and on the way to Ch. 11
6) Miami, Phoenix, San Diego, Naples, Boston, DC, Denver (oh, the pain. oh, the pain.)
7) The mainstream media (using realtor and homebuilder quotes, not identifying the ponzi scheme in time)
8) Poor people (got sucked in as the last sucker in)
9) Bush (recommending the "ownership society" regardless of price. And he's an MBA?)
10) The Arizona Republic (shoddy reporting, influenced no doubt by the overwhelming real estate ad percentage)
April 18, 2006
The housing bubble has burst. Who got it right? Who got it wrong?
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7 comments:
didn't you hear....everywhere is immune!
Just added TX to the immune list today. So you are ok. LMFAO!
"8) Signonsandiego (lots of great articles starting Fall 2005)"
Totally disagree with this statement. I live in San Diego and the local paper, Union Tribune has had its share of shoddy reporting. They are consistently 6-9 months behind what is really going on. More than 60% of their advertisers are real estate, mortgage brokers, etc. so they really have no reason to show the other side of things. Try "The Voice of San Diego" for a better idea of what is going on today.
TX real estate is undervalued. You can get a 3000sf house for just over $200K
Housing prices have gone up about 10% the past 5 years.
My brother-in-law bought a 3300sf house with an in-ground waterfall pool on a large lot for $217K last summer. The house was built in 1998 and is near a new mall, new schools and 10 minutes from two major highways.
I'm thinking about buying a 1600sf condo listed at $99K
Like I said, there is absolutely no bubble in TX. The RE bubble is not tied to homes, but to land and location. There is just too much land in TX to create a bubble.
There's a reason Texas homes are reasonable and that is a function of jobs and plenty of land available. Don't look for a housing boom in Texas anytime soon. Remember what happened to Houston 20 years ago.
I was implying that the job picture in Texas is good but the fact is that there is almost unlimited land on which to build houses. Look at Dallas, some fools (according to previous HP posts) drive SUVs from damn near the Okie line into Dallas for work.
Don't ever expect a Texas boom. Florida DOESN'T have the jobs to support the current housing prices. It doesn't have the full time population either. If we lose the speculators we would see prices drop 50% overnight. There is a reason that FL was one of the cheapest places in the country to live before 2000 and it will one day be that again.
FL has nothing but retirees and low-paying tourism jobs. Most of the regulars there are poor as dirt. The retirees and millionaires with their beach homes are the only money in the state.
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