April 27, 2006

Goldbugs - make your case for investing in gold and commodities

You've heard me yammer away, including putting my money where my mouth is with that big buy I did last week of GLD.

My case: The falling dollar drives gold's price rise, plus a flight to safety, Iran, Iraq, the debt, the deficit, the trade imbalance, rebalancing of foreign reserves, the housing bubble popping, blah blah blah...

The yellow stuff seems to be taking a breather at $635 or so, and I think we'll see $700 by May's end.

For anyone who DOESN'T think gold is in the early days of a big rally, (try to) make your case too. Talk me out of buying more - seriously!

Gold and metals posted strong gains for the second day in a row on Wednesday after strong U.S. economic data supported the outlook for continued demand for commodities.

Gold for June delivery finished up $7.80, or 1.2%, to $642.0 an ounce. Silver for May delivery rose 25 cents, or 2%, to $12.81 an ounce. Copper for May delivery gained 7.45 cents, or 2.2%, to $3.3950 a pound, off a fresh record high at $3.49.

138 comments:

Python said...

IMHO, this world did just fine with the gold standard. It was an honest and solid safeguard of wealth and commerce. I do not feel at all comfortable with fiat currency measured in unfathomable zeros. If it all comes crashing down and nothing is worth anything, then oh well, I guess the debate was moot. But if we have the ability and fortitude to rebuild, then perhaps gold will once again become a cornerstone of wealth and commerce. If nothing else, some will have a pretty yellow metal in which to pound into jewelry, and others will have paper in which to wipe their bottoms. Will this be the first trade in the new economy?

Anonymous said...

what about linking fiat currency growth to population growth?

Is that feasible?

The Thinker said...

If it all goes south and gold becomes the only real currency, Uncle Sam will come knocking on your door asking for his gold. It happened in 1933, it could happen again.

Other than that, gold goes up and down, but it has a high cost of ownership and relatively high transaction costs. You must pay for safety deposit boxes and insurance.

So unless you want to build a room and fill it with gold coins so you can swim around in it like Scrooge McDuck, I think you should forget about gold and look to some real investments.

If you are looking for a good investment, I have a condo in Ft. Lauderdale I could sell you; real-estate never goes down you know, never!

Anonymous said...

My suggestion would be - buy gold - but don't go overboard like everyone else did with the housing market.

The best rule is to use some common sense. If you do have some extra cash on the bank - then you should probably convert between 10 - 20 % of it into gold and other assets. As the value of the dollar goes down, the increase in value of gold will offset this decline.

Having a higher percentage in gold will mean that you actually start making money... but that's a gamble too. Since you're complaining about so many people who gambled on property - do you want to be doing the same thing with gold?

Like I said - use common sense. Be realistic but don't be greedy. If you have extra cash - change some to gold, some to Euros, some to cheap farmland, etc. If you don't have the cash, then you have nothing to lose anyway.
:-)

The point is to not have all of your eggs in one basket.

Viktor

Anonymous said...

Note that in march, the fed stopped reporting the M3, a measure of how many dollars they are printing… Without any way for the public to track dollar production, I’m sure they have the printing presses running 24/7. This is hidden inflation. Just wonder with it will catch up with us…

Dave said...

Talk you out of it......? Every spare dollar that I can squeeze out buys gold and silver! Heres a question for all you junior economists who espouse the notion that gold is a "Barbarous Relic"! If you believe paper money is real money and that the present mechanism of bringing this "money" into existence is legitimate; Would you have any problem with the Federal Reserve printing sufficient tender to make all the numbers (present government debt, current obligations and operating expenses and future promises) work out! I mean if green ink covered paper is real money why carry any debt at all?

poweredchicken said...

anonymous (#2) fiat currency acts the same irrespective of the number of people in the economy.

the problem with fiat currency is that governments can create as much as they wish. To print money is the alternative to tax. Spending money gets you elected, taxing gets you unelected. Thats why governments like fiat currency so much - they can spend AND get re-elected. Gold stops that as a government can only spend as much money as it has gold.

Anonymous said...

Just got back from the dentist...Cashed out my 401K and got me some gold diamond encrusted grillz.

Anonymous said...

Gold is junk, buy and store fiat paper.

borkafatty said...

http://www.marketwatch.com/News
/Story/Story.aspx?siteid=mktw&guid=
{4A85AD81-
1028-46AE-ABCF-7FA61DD0909C}&dist=bnb


Chapter 2 and the rates will rise!

watch your step said...

Helicpoter Ben says rate hikes may end soon. That means inflation will spiral out of control. The only safe haven is precious metals or foreign currencies.

it is a joke said...

Look at the Deutschemark (Bundesmark)in the 1920's and early 1930's. At one point, they were worth the paper they were printed on and workers hauled home their daily pay in wheelbarrows. People made a million marks a day and still couldn't afford a loaf of bread. The US is headed that way with Easy Al and Helicopter Ben at the wheels. Don't think the Asians are clueless. If this continues, the USD will be replaced with euros and gold. Then who will buy our debt?

Anonymous said...

The Government can't take what they don't know about.

autofx in Phx said...

The Thinker said...
If it all goes south and gold becomes the only real currency, Uncle Sam will come knocking on your door asking for his gold. It happened in 1933, it could happen again.

This is a very interesting historical fact -- it was FDR's first executive order as President. Everyone I share it with acts surprised, but only mildly so because they'd never think of buying gold (or silver) as I do.

I wonder how many people who had physical gold simply hid it, denied having it, and refused to comply with this order.

For my part, I plan to make sure I'm out, or mostly out, of my metal holdings before the gov't comes a-knockin'.

autofx in Phx said...

Anonymous said...
what about linking fiat currency growth to population growth?

Is that feasible?


Of course it's feasible. The gov't can and does print all the money it wants, at will.

Maybe this would be smarter than what they do right now. People-backed currency. Is not a person in fact worth much much more than an ounce of gold? If we got better at making sure everyone has the best possible chance of becoming a productive member of society...hmmmm, interesting.

autofx in Phx said...

Problem is, you can't use a human as a unit of currency...or can you? Sports teams swap humans, after all.

autofx in Phx said...

OK, we're to make a case for investing in gold, etc.

My investment approach is simple: recognize that bubbles will occur. They have, they are, they will. We had an equities bubble in the late 90s, a housing bubble these last few years, and are in the early phase of a commodities bubble that could last several years.

There are many who will say we have not had a housing bubble, and many who will say there is no good case for further runup metals/commodities.

I say these people are wrong, and I have placed my bets. It's up to others to decide for themselves what they should do.

autofx in Phx said...

From Richard Daughty, that zany "Mogambo Guru" gold bug:

"...the REAL reason that gold and commodities will zoom, zoom, zoom is that we have GOT to have a bubble in something, and pretty damned soon, too, if we are to survive as an economy!"

Ajay said...

For all of you think that you need to store it or have a fort in your home you dont, you can do what I did. I bought some GLD (Ticker) its an EFT that tracks gold at 1/10 of an ounce. I also bought GOLDX a mutual fund that invests in companies that mine and are in the industry of gold. When gold goes up companies that GOLDX invests in have expenses that remain constant and a surge in profits from their goods, in this case gold. Take a look at the charts. I have a huge chunk invested in this and I am very happy. I feel I did the right thing by bailing on my house and throwing it into gold.

Alan Greenspend said...

No one has a crystal ball, the future is uncertain, but I saw the writing on the wall last year, sold our house, transferred our bonds and equities to gold and silver funds, some physical along with the money from the house. My wife thought I was losing it. Luckily we've had 40 to 96% return so far.

We just moved from the top of one bubble to the bottom of the next. They can inflate all they want, more liquidity will just drive up the commodities market, which will create stagflation at best, causing them to keep pumping money or risk a collapse.

My next project is researching legal offshore banking, in case of a banking crisis.

brokersleaveyoubroke said...

If you worry about the government taking your gold then buy gold coins instead of bullion. They didn't confiscate gold coins back in the 30's because they are worth more then the gold content (numismatic value) and it was too complicated/expensive to buy all the gold coins held by collectors. On the down side, transaction fees are much higher on coins. Anyway, gold confiscation was a bold, decisive move and I don't see anybody in washington who's up to that job.

Annie said...

I say go for it. I am investing in Silver and some Gold. Just have an exit strategy.

Robert Coté said...

First, my comments are worthless because I'm too chickensh!t to act on my opinions. That said; I think golds rise is worldwide seeking of investment return and protection from uncertainty. Too much weight placed on both. The changes in the industry these last decades make it more of a commodity as something like a third is in industrial uses. Bad economy and a third of demand softens? Like other commodities different sources have different cost basises. I think there's a whole lot of $400 gold in the ground. As currency how many people have no paper trail and tradeable 1/10th, 1/2, 1 oz minted coins? Not enough to make it a replacement currency in a real emergency. Finally, my mom was born "The Day The Banks Closed." That I don't have to say more tells you why you may not be allowed to use gold. Still, it is pretty and has lots of uses from jewelry and electronics. Think of it as concentrated copper with sentimental value as well. I'm not interested in paying a sentiment premium. What's the old saying about auto racing and polo? You are safe when everyone out there with you is also a professional. There's the big problem, lots of amateurs on the field. India for but one example has this new "middle class" that has neither personal nor societal investing histories to rely upon when allocating their new found for the first time disposable income.

Like I said, I can't work with the emotional premium so ijust don't. Lumber? Easy. People don't stack 2x4s in their basement. Jewelry? [Finished pieces for retail consumption] Easy. Economy and demographics. See where I'm going? Thought Iwas talking -just- about gold? No. Housing, the new gold. The date? The early 1980s.

Anonymous said...

Now's probably a good time to get into gold, make your pile, and get out. The current gold boom is a speculative bubble -- if you don't think so, compare what's being said about gold to what was being said about real estate three or four years ago -- but it's early days yet, and there's still a long line of greater fools who haven't yet hopped on the bandwagon. Just remember not to get caught up in the hype, and when investing in gold makes the cover of Time, sell everything.

autofx in Phx said...

...there's still a long line of greater fools who haven't yet hopped on the bandwagon...when investing in gold makes the cover of Time, sell everything.

It can't be said much better.

autofx in Phx said...

...there's still a long line of greater fools who haven't yet hopped on the bandwagon...when investing in gold makes the cover of Time, sell everything.

It can't be said much better.

Anonymous said...

Here is the case against Gold:

http://www.thefinancialhelpcenter.com/Gold-Silver-Page001.html

Anonymous said...

Here is the case agiants gold:

http://www.thefinancialhelpcenter.com/
Gold-Silver-Page001.html

Anonymous said...

Here is the case agiants gold:

http://www.thefinancialhelpcenter.com/
Gold-Silver-Page001.html

autofx in Phx said...

I think the writer of the article at that link is a very amateurish technical analyst and a preschool-level economist!

The Thinker said...

These technical analysis studies are a load of crap. That guy can jimmy the numbers as much as he'd like but in the end, he is assuming that the price of gold moves at random. The truth is that the price of gold is tied to geopolitical events.

Mamboni said...

In the absolute, intrinsic value cannot be measured in dollars, because dollars are pure fiat currency, created out of debt, and backed only by the full faith and credit of the US government to replace them with more dollars. Dollars are a pure accounting device - a reciept for credit towards nullifying a debt. That is what the Federal Reserve does: create dollar abstractions(out of thin air) which are used purely to transact labor and capital goods. The dollar is not a store of wealth. But, the Federal has complete control over the amount of dollars in circulation (paper and electronic) through interest rates and fractional reserve requirements. The bottom line is: there are many trillions of dollars in circulation, most held by foreign central banks (this is how we have been able to export our dollar inflation up till now). The Fed is creating record amounts of dollars, mostly through amplification via the fractional reserve mechanism of private banks that extend credit, in order to maintain liquidity in the marketplace whilst servicing ever increasing debt interest payments, government, corporate and private. The rate of money supply growth has entered the exponential phase (in line with exponential growth of debt [think matter:antimatter] wherein the M3 money supply stattistic had to be blacked out (ostensibly to "save money on accounting-related expenses:" you have to hand it to the Fed - they have a wry sense of humor). You see, expanding the money supply is now not enough to prevent recession: the Fed creates money to buy stocks and assets in a process called repo (which had only appeared as part of the M3 statistic). Imagine, an entity (The Fed) given the legal monopoly by the US Congress [in 1913] to create unlimited amounts of dollars, that now purchases stocks and hard assets with those unlimited dollars. Is this sinking in yet? Can you say: Inflationary. Can you say: dollar devaluation?

Fact: the US dollar has lost 97% of it's purchasing power since the creation of the Fed in 1913.

Fact: There are approximately $50,000 Federal Reserve notes presently in existence for each and every one of the 261 million ounces of gold bullion claimed to be held by the US government (assuming none of the gold has not already been leased out).

Fact: an ounce of gold has about the same purchasing power today as it did in 1913.

Fact: the unfunded pension, benefit and SSI liabilities of the US government now exceed $54 TRILLIONS and this grows larger every day as it these "trusts" are in negative amortization.

Prediction: the US government will "manage" it's staggering ballooning debts through continual inexorable dollar devaluation (inflation).

I fully expect the US government to honor it's commitments to SSI pensioners and Medicare, to name to two biggest entitlements. Yes, you will get that monthly SSI check for $2,400 in 2015. And, a cup of coffee will be about $5, a gallon of gasoline about $17 and an ounce of gold about $3,000. Because remember folks: we're dealing in dollars, and dollars, just like numbers, are just an abstraction.

But, one's standard of living is determined by real, tangible things called commodities.

Buy some gold. Buy some silver (just convert 10% of your net worth into these metals). It's cheap insurance and you'll sleep better at night. Think about it.

Anonymous said...

The real problem is that far too many Americans have no net worth. They think they are "rich" because their house appraised at $750K, they make $200K a year and drive nice automobiles. But in reality they are piss poor because the equity in their house is a fiction, the cars are leased, and their jobs are on the outsourcing list.

People equate money and wealth, when true wealth is control of the means of production. They are really just well-dressed slaves who toil under a slave owner. Shhh -- don't tell them, it will just upset their carefully crafted delusion.

obscuredbyklaus said...

thanks mamboni for your post. question: if the dollar keeps going down, why not put more than 10% of one's net worth into gold/silver? what other options can one put his/her money into to guard against the dwindling value of $ ?

Mamboni said...

To Obscurebyklaus:

Thank you my friend with the puzzling name (mamboni (ref. rabboni): teacher of the mambo).

On the matter of protecting one's wealth whilst fighting the whilting effects of inflation, I ponder this "conundrum" (borrowing a word from my favorate central banker- NOT!) daily. I will tell you what I have done and am doing:

1. I have about 10% of my net worth in gold and silver in my possession (I invested in a very large secure safe, first rate home security system and a large black dog and live on 10 private acres which have camera surveilance). I may increase my metals holdings to 20% if there is an opportune price correction in gold or silver, cashflow permitting.
2. I have steered as much as possible of my mutual funds (401Ks - annuities) into hard asset-based funds and value-oriented funds, especially international, which seek out underpriced companies with good prospects. I am looking at mining stocks presently.
3.I am paying off a line of credit that my lovely wife ran up landscaping our 10 acre property(I love her dearly and she and my children are main indulgence - after all, life is about enjoying living). Now that all the work is complete, my wife has agreed to restrain her consumption for the time being.
4. My home is 2/3 owned (equity), 1/3 mortgage, the latter at 30 year fixed at 5.5% (net 3.7% after tax writeoff). I am in a market that is not a bubble market and will weather the coming real estate metdown well - I hope and pray. It makes sense to keep the mortgage - the principal is depreciating at 8-10% per annum (ahh - feel the wonderful cool breeze while riding the inflation train!), faster than the financing cost.
5. I keep some cash for emergencies - always - 3 months of expenses.
6. My private corporation maintains a significant portion of it's pension assets in gold ETF shares. When the silver ETF launches, I have instructed my broker to buy shares. Long term, silver is a superb investment - it's market fundamentals are extraordinary - better than gold.
7. I accumulate hard assets that are fungible, inflation-proof and can be converted back to cash or useful as barter as a supplemental income source during retirement. Here are some examples:
numismatic coins, antiques, artwork, all smallish items - obviously you have to develop a sense of what to buy and how much to pay.

I fully expect to get raped by the ever increasing taxes on my retirement income as this socialistic government has no limit to it's appetite for the people's money. One must set aside assets that can be converted to income (cash or trade) later that are not on paper or depend on the [dubious] integrity of a bank or investment firm. Remember, SSI was a tax-exempt trust fund at inception. It has mutated into means-tested taxable income. Unfortunately, our government is incapable of keeping a promise when it involves money.

In general, live 10% below your income, bank the difference as stated above, and avoid assuming unnecessary debt/speculation. Wealth, like wisdom, takes time and patience to accumulate.

Number Six said...

IMHO, signs point toward gold continuing to rise. In 1980, the FED under Volcker raised interest rates in order to bring inflation under control. The short-term result was a recession, but one can argue that this medicine helped rein in inflation. The current generation has gone soft and does not want to feel any pain. As a result, the FED will do whatever is necessary to postpone another recession. As a result, I think the eventual fallout will be much more severe.

As for the dollar, most people in the USA do not have savings. Inflation benefits the debtor class, since they can pay back their debts in depreciated dollars. If you are worried about your savings being depleted by inflation, don't look for the government to change its policy. You are outnumbered by the debtors, and our politicians know where the votes are.

As a result, it would seem prudent to own some gold. You can't stop inflation, but you can protect your purchasing power. On the other hand, I don't really forsee a Mad Max-type future where the government collapses and you need gold and silver just to buy groceries (at least not in the near future). Taking actual custody of gold results in transaction costs (typically, you must pay a premium over the spot value of gold, and your gold would have to rise to this level to break even). Perhaps other alternatives to gold which nonetheless replicate the return of gold might help. I have been investing in a gold mutual fund for 3.5 years and have gotten a good return on this; my broker doesn't charge a fee for mutual fund purchases, either. But this might not be for everyone. Has anyone had any experience with Perth Mint Certificates?

uknowwhoiyam said...

Buy gold! Tthe U$ dollar is collapsing!

Too funny.

Anonymous said...

Check out the US $ index. Steep decline in the past month. One month gold has posted a $70 gain. Any questions? Yes, actually does anyonone know what Bernanke was talking about in 2003 when he said that if the demand for US bonds falls that the fed could buy them? How does that work? I am no bond expert, but is'nt that a little crooked. How can you manipulate an open market by buying your own bonds?
Jim

zinger said...

Easy...

It's called the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) part of the ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund)

All authorized by the U.S. Congress... so it's not crooked (illegal) its just immoral!!!

zinger said...

Who said, "I'm a polititian... which means that I'm a cheat and a lier. When I'm not kissing babbies, I'm stealing thier lolli-pops"

Hint: The quote is from the movie, "The Hunt for Red October".

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Anonymous said...

The average home is currently on the for about 4 months before it goes to contract. Around 15% of initial real estate contracts never make it to a successful closing ... something goes wrong, and the frustrated seller puts the home back on the real estate market .

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