May 01, 2006

The end of the bubble - when some spoilsport whispers "pyramid scheme".

HP didn't cause the end of the bubble, but the critical mass that HP was part of did for sure.

Awareness, combined with desire to get out before the crash, is what causes the end of all bubbles. This one included. And now the mad dash to get out is underway (see Phoenix listings for an example). And think, we're just getting started.

It's a long, long, long way down.

If No One Whispered 'Housing Bubble,' There'd Be No Worry

A pyramid scheme, with each new round of players making earlier rounds richer, is a foolproof way to make money — until it isn't.

What is the breaking point? Probably about the time some spoilsport whispers "pyramid scheme," and there's a mad dash for the exits.

Echoes of housing prices? Not exactly, because you can't flee the housing market without living on the street. Still, an almost pyramid-like frenzy has engulfed some areas in recent years, with buyers paying ever-loftier prices for homes, convinced that within months they will find someone who will pay even more for them.

If there are whispers of a "housing bubble" — ominous words that could make check-writing hands distinctly shaky — most people still haven't heard them. As recently as a year ago, according to a survey by the Gallup Organization, just 23 percent of Americans were even moderately familiar with the term. In the latest survey, that jumped to 40 percent.

And 24 percent now say that a bubble is likely within a year — though, naturally, only 7 percent expect it in their own backyard

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

I wonder if Gallup asked these respondents if they were looking to buy or sell Re in the next 12 months. It would be interesting to see how many saying yes to hearing of the HB were also in or soon to be in the RE market.

Anonymous said...

Am seeing many listings expire unsold... then relisted at 10% or more discount with another realtor.

Anonymous said...

MMMMMMMMMM

Bubble-licious

Anonymous said...

Saw a new Gallup poll today that reported that 52% of Americans feel now is not the time to buy a home.

The link is on Ben's May 1 blog somewhere. Really sorry can't be more specific.

Once the word gets out, it's going to spread like wildfire.

Anonymous said...

Yikes!...RUN Everyone !...They're...ON TO US !