Man, some of this stuff is so damn obvious. Like that perfectly executed Merrill pump-and-dump a few weeks ago.
Friday, #1 WLS shareholder, the one and only Bill Lyon, who owns 47% of the shares outright, offered to buy the company for a 23% premium over the current price.
In other words, he raised the price of his own shares 23% in a day. Or $74 Million in one day. Meanwhile, he also destroyed any shorts, set a new psychological value for his company, and also reversed the horrible trend his stock was on.
When HP said I wouldn't short homebuilder stocks because they're manipulated, I didn't dream of such naked schnanigans. Stay away. More to come. Bob Toll has some serious sh*t up his sleeve I'm sure.
The chairman and chief executive of William Lyon Homes on Friday said he began an offer to buy all outstanding common shares of the homebuilding company that bears his name for $93 apiece.
The offer represents a 23 percent premium over the stock's closing price of $75.70 on Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange.
Shares surged $19.04, or 25 percent to $94.74 in premarket trading on the Inet electronic exchange. The stock has traded in a 52-week range of $70.75 to $165.85.
Gen. William Lyon, chairman and CEO, currently owns 4.1 million shares, or 47.6 percent, of the company's outstanding common stock and controls about 50.4 percent of the total voting power.
March 18, 2006
SEC ALERT: William Lyon CEO destroys the shorts and pays himself
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27 comments:
Yep...if you are going to try and short HB companies and mortgage outfits be very careful. Everytime the Fed gives the slightest hint of easing up on the rate increases these stocks take off (People axpect the bubble to grow). Also, be wary of shorting around options expiry days...the underlying stocks tend to just float higher as you get closer to the expiry date (often on light trading volume). So many are trying to short some of the real turkeys that the potential for severe short squeezes in these issues is great.
Lyon isn't buying, he's putting the company in play and screwing every short at the same time. Brilliant timing and a little luck (strong Fed report). Closed at 99, after hours 100. Insane. Ole Bill made $125 million for himself yesterday. You gotta understand more than 99% of the stock is held by institutions or insiders. This is nothing but stock manipulation. Good post Keith.
Consider this an excellent opportunity to short the stock! His offering price is $93, stock is at $99. Will the General up the ante and pay more than $93? I doubt the General really thinks WLS is worth over $100 per share, he knows more about the fundamentals of his company than anybody else does. Plus he might be bluffing. If the deal doesn't go through in April, WLS will plummet much lower.
banker, yanker, perhaps you haven't been reading the blog for the past few months. i've written about NOT shorting the builders - the had their 50% haircut, the easy money was made, and now you'll see manipulation. too dangerous to be short.
Because you put a buy or a short rec on a stock doesn't mean that rec stays on for the rest of time
you'll note from 11/5 TOL fell from $40 to $30 in february, nice 25% gain for the trade.
I've consistently advocated for the past 60 days cash, cold hard cash. and now gold and foreign stocks are tempting.
in some ways the builders may be a buy. they'll be manipulated, they'll be consolidated, and they'll be able to outprice individual homeowners.
but I'd stay away. far far away.
Umm - Keith....I think the banker has you.....looks like he is referring to your 12 month play below.....
Wednesday, November 23, 2005 2:49:45 PM
Housing Panic said...
For the 10k:
$5000 - 4% interest savings at HSBC
$1000 - short FNM
$1000 - short TOL
$1000 - short TGIC
$1000 - short SPF
$1000 - long COP
Please track those puppies and enjoy
And don't flame day to day - this is a play for 12 months. We're in a nice rally right now because housing investment $ is flowing into stocks, and also hedge funds are working overtime to get the market to an increase for 2005 so they can get paid
But 2006 is gonna be ugly
Oh, and don't forget rule #1 - sell your housing - now
Keith - do you stand behind what you say on this blog? You're sounding a little Dubya-like......
Boasting and chest-beating about market gains is day trader behavior. I don't know what kind of banker the banker is, but this kind of hot air is seriously unprofessional. I am in the investment business as well, and I can tell you that you don't see the real pros logging on to the internet and mouthing off about their successes, and you certainly don't see them taunting those who had a different (wrong) thesis. The stock market is a humbling game; even the best investors sometimes get taken down a few notches, and they eventually learn not to indulge in shameless braggadocio, lest they tempt the fates to erase some of their wealth in the next go-round. I think the banker must be a commercial loan officer who plays the market in a small way on the side, or else he's a young I-banking analyst or associate (wet behind the ears, recent college or MBA grad, say a 25 yr old) who has not yet learned much about life or business. Only time and perhaps a few well-timed investment reversals will help him along the path to maturity.
On the other hand, if I'm wrong and he's in his 30's or (heaven forbid) older, that doesn't say much in his favor.
oops got me.
but I did change my mind after the builders dropped 50%. Figured pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.
I wouldn't be short any builder today for sure.
But boy, what a great ride down it was for 'em. Nobody can deny that.
banker,
who cares how much assets you control. You're probably the guy at the yuppie restaurant bragging about having a Suburban as well.
whoppptiiiieeedoooooooo
i come to blogs to read other peoples thinking....for all we know you're just a middle-mgmt schmuck blowing smoke up our asses, but not that I care anyways. I would NEVER take advice from a internet forum or blog. Remember all the dumb asses talking up their favorite stocks in 1999, driving up the prices and then finding a SEC investigation letter in the mail?
Banker works for Fidelity investments. How has their performance been lately? Been a lot of shakeups over there because of people like "the banker" who always seem to underperform.
If he is reading this blog for advice or to do the exact opposite then that doesn't say very much for Fidelity does it?
Isn't Lyon the one buying (not selling) shares in his company at a hefty premium?
In fact, he is not necessarily buying one damn share. The little bit of what I've seen is that his "offer" is for either enough additional stock to get him up to 90%, and by April 14, or the deal's off.
Is there any possible movement in price that is not a huge money-maker for him at this point?: He's made $25 a share on millions of shares; he could write a bunch of covered April $70 calls at $30 to lock in that profit. If the stock goes down from here by April 14, he's got his stock at the lower price and $30 in option proceeds. If the stock goes up by April 14, oh too bad, he has to sell his shares at $100.
That's the final indicator to me that this is nothing more than market manipulation.
Dear Banker,
You said weeks ago that you weren’t going to post here anymore, mainly due to the fact that you were embarrassed after Keith pointed out how were wrong you are. You have been squashed by the homebuilder shorts. Furthermore, unlike Keith, I think the builders are going to drop a lot more in the coming months. They’re very likely sitting on bad news.
last anon - i don't agree with the banker either, but if he really did the opposite of what keith said per the portfolio above from Ben, then he would have done very well last friday and the past couple months......the banker did not go short on homebuilders.......he did the opposite.....
Banker,
I'm on the sell side. My firm works with Fido, so I'll definitely stay anonymous. What I said about your attitude stands. And by the way, Fido's performance in most funds since the 1980's has been pretty poor. A marketing machine, but not the smartest buy-side analysts in the world. Arguing with a blogger is, perhaps, not the best use of your time.
Keep bragging, hotshot. We won't hear about it when your portfolio gets creamed, will we?
does Fido stand for "Fidelity"? how do we know the investment banekr is from there.....and what is he doing on this blog?
Keith, you are such a tool. If Lyons wants to buy his own stock in the open market, he can. Wake up, it is legal and ok.
banker is the man, I like what he says.
I think Keith uses the banker to get ratings......whenever comments to his postings wane, Keith posts a rant about the banker, the banker responds, and a flood of comments result......it's hilarious.
The banker thinks that he is dissing Keith, when the truth is Keith is in love with the banker. Keith better watch it though......I noticed that the banker is starting to post on http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/....
Keith needs to pay the banker more.
"Anonymous said...
banker is the man, I like what he says."
This was "the banker" himself, who logged on as anonymous. Dude, if you're going to pull that lame-ass stunt, at least do it from a different IP address! Sheesh!
last anon - that wasn't the banker......the banker is incapable of writing less than 3 paragraph posts
I am not the banker
shut up, banker
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