Boy, history sure does repeat itself. Anyone live through the last Denver real estate meltdown in 1990? I was there (and happily renting).
I almost bought a $500,000 loft downtown in 2004 then talked myself out of it. Too much inventory being built, too many listings, and no appreciation since 2001.
Glad I walked away. This market has been flat for years - and now it's declining? Makes Phoenix look even worse
Home-sale prices in the Denver area took a larger than expected drop in February, prompting some experts to wonder if the upper-end housing market is starting to cool
McGuire said he is concerned that there were 25,484 unsold homes on the market last month, 17.3 percent more than in February 2005 and the most ever for a February. McGuire said unsold inventory could top 30,000 homes this year for the first time.
"But Arapahoe County is scary," Bartlett said in a recent e-mail. He said that he was listing a home near Smoky Hill Road that the sellers bought for $208,000 in 2004. After 35 showings, they hadn't received an offer, so they dropped the price to $189,000.
"Back when things were good, you couldn't find a decent starter for under $225,000," he said. "Prices are dropping, and buyers have no sense of urgency."
Condos prices took a big hit. The average price of a condo fell by $16,849 in February from $192,271 in January, almost a 9 percent drop in one month.
"I was surprised," Bauer said. "I knew they would be down, but I didn't think by this much. Especially since there was a lot of sales activity in February."
March 08, 2006
Denver - condos plummeting, "Arapahoe County is scary"
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4 comments:
I live in Denver, so I have a few comments about this article.
1. This Rocky Mountain News article was so much better than the pathetic equivalent article in the Denver Post.
2. The "Denver" market consists of 6 large counties so we always have 20000+ units for sale. The important number to watch is the ratio of clousures to listings. That is, how many months would it take to clear the inventory. Five to six is normal and more is bad. 1987 was bad at about 10 months.
3. Average prices are meaningless and misleading. Median price is the only number that counts. The paper had a chart showing media, the online article does not.
4. There are really two housing markets in "Denver":
a. Built up areas of older homes with easier commutes. Not many new houses.
b. Open areas of new/newer homes with longer commutes. Lots of new houses from builders.
The new house market is under more pressure as the homebuilders will do anything to sell a house.
We have seen this all before from 1985 thru 1990. (Oil did not hit $80/barrel as some dope smokers believed it would.)
,dave
The 80s RE bust in Denver was a great opportunity for those of us geologists caught in the big oil bust of 1986. At least we were able to buy into a good house at descent prices. We paid it off and haven't had a mortgage since the 80s.
Dave..is that thou of Exlog mudlogging fame? Graduate of Dale McPherons mudlogging course of 1980?
Lodo may be temporarily overbuilt, but when gas goes above $3.00 again the economics will work. Try WATER TOWER VILLAGE in Arvada for a real deal- on the future Gold Line and in a real nice little downtown area with bars, restaurants, wine shop, bakery, and fresh veggies and flowers. They are up about 15% in 2006 and should keep going for a while as you can still get them for much less psf as Lodo, less drime, close to DT and lot's to walk to.
You will not be able to afford dope in 2009 if you live in the burbs and off a LR stop. Mark my words!
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