Hey, only 70 days after HousingPanic declared the same thing - not too bad for the MSM
The five-year housing boom is indeed over, judging from growing statistical evidence and the performance of some of the nation's leading builders, and the slowdown is already rippling through the economy.
In the last week, the Commerce Department reported that January sales of new single-family homes fell 5 percent – the fourth decline in seven months – and the backlog of unsold new homes hit a record. And the National Association of Realtors said used home sales slipped 2.8 percent in January, the fourth straight drop and 5 percent below January 2005.
Explanations for the recent cooling-off vary. Many people bought homes during the past five years and are staying put. Some analysts blame a decline in consumer confidence. And interest rates have been rising, especially for adjustable mortgages that allowed people to buy more expensive homes than they could have afforded with a 30-year loan.
“We started to see the strain in July and August, and by the fourth quarter the market definitely had slowed,” said Layne Marceau, president of the Northern California region for Shea Homes, one of the nation's largest private builders.
March 07, 2006
Associated Press declares: "The five-year housing boom is indeed over"
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13 comments:
No trouble here in Phoenix.
Restaurants remain packed, with 1-2 hour waits on the weekends. The malls are packed.
I even stopped by some builder models late in the afternoon Sunday and they had traffic.
(cont'd from above)
I found that most disturbing because I would think the housing bubble would be felt FIRST in Phoenix. But after reading the Az Republic article, I went out looking for myself.
The debt spending frenzy slowed down last fall, but appears to be running again at full throttle.
nice to see the realtors posting again to HousingPanic
37,000 listings in Phoenix, market in total meltdown mode
And that has no relation to wait times at PF Changs
It's certainly felt around Florida. Everyone is talking about the housing bust. Property is sitting on the markets.
Restaurants are still busy too but that's not indicative of a housing boom. They were full after 9/11 too.
ok what does a resturant and housing have in comon, I dont see the point. Here in mass. resturants are full also, one has to eat to stay alive. I would rather pay $60 for a good meal, than $400,000 for 3 bedroom ranch. The economy is doing fine, it's one of those you are eith making it or your not, plain and simple. I guess this is why i work 2 jobs, as a matter of fact i know plenty of people doing the partime thing plus full time just to make ends meet.
FL..."early bird specials"... 2 for 1 cocktails..I'd wait too! Don't want to mess up the $70K kitchen in my house with the "for sale" sign in front!
Restaurants, bars, and coffee shops were full of people in occupied Europe during WW2. The economy was in ruin, but there was no free chair to sit on the side walk caffee. Full dinners are not indication that people are happy about their financial situation.
"no trouble here in Phoenix"....
that HAS to be one of my favorite quotes in a comment forum!
What do you want to bet those packed restaurants were full of credit card diners? Ditto the malls. Seeking omfort and normality in economic firestorms usually results in more debt.
Maybe instead of basing your assumption of "no trouble here in Phx" on restaurants, you could take a look at the massive numbers of open houses and inventory deluge...be sure to check days in market while you're at it. Then check with your local title agent and lender...ask how busy they are.
LOL, first poster is very right though that now the restaurants is fully packed with realtors since they can't find any more buyers off the streets so they gather together spending on their credit cards hoping to find the next fool in line to sell the house to.
Resturants are packed in the Tampa area. Traffic is the worst I have seen it. Sounds good right?..Well things are not what they seem in paradise. 15 homes in my sub out of 190 for sale. Only one or two have sold in the last 3 ,months. Used to sell in 2 days! Discounts are starting to surface and will only become more frequent.
If builders were smart they would stop building for a while until inventory goes down . The builders all over built in all these key areas like Florida ,Las Vegas and Phoenix. They just need to hold on to the land until another day . Everyone wanted to build while the interest rates were low . The investors also wanted to buy while the interest rates were low . One last chance to make a killing before affordability kills it .This oversuppy is built on the
"one last chance to make a killing" before interest rates go up frenzy .
Housing Wizard,
I bid on the site work for constrution projects. Here in DC/Baltimore look for a new home construction slow down of about 50%. BUT apartment buildings are the newest thing to be hitting the street. Not sure how that shows up on the Fed's housing starts.
Apartment construction will be up about 100% this year in the DC/Baltimore market.
Overall residential construction is down, with commercial helping a bit to bring construction spending close to 2005 levels.
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