Let's see - market went up 50% in ONE YEAR. 25% - 30% of ALL homes were bought by flippers and investors.
They've now fled. The days of appreciation are over. Inventory has exploded by 700% IN 12 MONTHS - from 5,000 listings to over 36,000.
Yet in this as-usual poorly written Arizona Republic article, some more great quotes. Why, oh why, does the MSM always run right out to the real estate industrial complex (REIC) for their quotes, and then let them go unchecked? Memo to MSM - call housingpanic - we'll give you a quote you can take to the bank. And for gods sake, doesn't anyone take journalism classes anymore before getting a job as a journalist?
Here's the jist of the report:
The slowing has continued this year with metropolitan Phoenix's overall median existing home prices inching down again. Resale listings exceeded 30,000 in January, nearly nine times the level of the same month of last year, says the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service. Selling time increased from about 5 1/2 days to 49. Sellers are frustrated because they are getting few offers, and many are cutting prices. Buyers seeing the slowing have become much more cautious.
But here comes the parade of laughable REIC quotes, unchecked by the lazy Republic writers:
Those kind of price increases cannot be sustained," said Brown, who sees a slowing market as a positive change and predicts a 4 percent price increase for new homes this year.
Doug Fulton, of Tempe-based Fulton Homes, said the slowdown was obvious to him on a recent flying tour of Pinal County. He said the number of new-house slabs in Maricopa was down by a third or more compared with six months agoFulton, of Tempe-based Fulton Homes, said executives of public builders are under pressure from Wall Street to duplicate last year's results in the Phoenix market this year. He said that would be difficult and said he would be happy with the 10 to 15 percent price increases he expects this year.
John Foltz, president of Phoenix-based Realty Executives, said the experienced speculators are pretty much out of the market, leaving newbies who could get hurt by the slowdown.He said the worst-case scenario for the resale market this year would be flat prices.
HP readers - here's the main reporter's email address - feel free to send her a note about finding more reputable sources:
catherine.reagor@arizonarepublic.com
12 comments:
You gentlemen need to do your homework. Why don't you go back and read some past articles, including ones from earlier this year saying "Valley home prices could be inflated by as much as 25 percent because of speculators." And with several sources outside of what you all call "the real estate industrial complex" calling for prices to fall. We have been reporting every indicator of the housing market we can for years. When the market started slowing and listings starting climbing last August, the focus of our stories immediately shifted. And even before that, we were saying the Valley's housing market couldn't sustain the frenzy it was in during the Spring and Summer. How do you know the market is going to implode. Did you also predict prices would jump 50 percent in a year? If so, I'll buy swamp land from you. We do our homework. We went to other markets like San Diego and Las Vegas last fall to check out where they were headed because they led the nation in price run ups before Phoenix. That was a front page story with some economic indicators you might want to look at like job and populatin growth. I know exactly what is going on in San Diego, and if you truly did your homework - you would see we have used it and Las Vegas as an example of where we could be headed. We do our homework. We talk to buyers, sellers, lenders, agents, builders and analysts daily. When you are sitting at home on the weekends, we are at open houses or in the sales trailers of home builders listening to buyers and sellers. What's your experience? You are criticizing the cover story on a special section that tracks home prices in sales by ZIP Code in 2005. Well, guess what? 2005 was a record year for the housing market. It has to be said, but instead of just reporting that, we write about what is going on now - A DEFINITE SLOWING. How much the housing market slows no one knows.. Because though home listings are up to 30,000... they are historically around 25,000. So for some longtime market watchers that signals the sky hasn't fallen. My verdict is still out because while you get to sit and criticize and name call, I am out doing the research and reporing on what's happening day-to-day in the housing market.
boy, it was nice for the arizona republic to respond, but a little defensive eh?
the main point she missed was that for all the "homework" she's doing, she's giving the real estate industrial complex carte blanche to add their biased comments to her well-researched articles, thus polluting them
catherine - report the story, but DO NOT ALLOW YOURSELF OR YOUR PAPER TO BE USED BY THE REAL ESTATE INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX, although I understand they are your number one advertiser far and away
If I see one more unchecked quote from a realtor or builder, then I'll know you're either corrupt or incompetent
cheers
How many times is she gonna say the word "homework"?
Can't speak for everyone but I did my "homework" -- which was sold my overpriced property at the peak, despite the ridiculous spin from "journalists" who publish blatantly false biased statements from real estate "insiders".
if your incompetence was called out for all to see, you'd be a bit defensive too, eh?
I think we'll be seeing MUCH less quotes from the corrupt NAR, desperate builders and local dolt Arizona realtors in the Arizona Republic now...
Our work is done (on this subject)
Catherine:
I hope you understand that flat prices = BUST. Therefore the worst case scenario of flat prices is a grim one indeed.
bitch do not spam this blog. go buy investment house in phx.
do your "homework" and bend over for your boss. keith, this blog is awesome!!!
I am on the sidelines waiting for the right time to buy - and actually have been buying cheap land outside of Show Low near the new development at low prices that would shock you!
And have got all my housing bubble domains for sale right now too on ebay right now.
Ah, don't pick on reporters. They don't make that much and their main duties are to sell more papers. That is why no one takes their analyses (or "news") seriously anymore. (I'm NOT saying reporters are "dumb") but I did enjoy the feisty response. She did score a few points.
How about quoting a real estate "expert" with objectivity and credibility? Like an economist, for example? How about pointing out to readers that real estate agents are principally interested in keeping the market going with lots of transactions, and that expectation of rising prices are the key to sustaining that market environment?
Better yet, how about searching the AR's own archives from the early 1990's, which would confirm that real estate agents always talk up the market as it is on the verge of a bust?
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