March 22, 2006

And they're off - pick the first bubble market to hit 1-year worth of supply glut

From bubbletracking - months of inventory tracking by bubble market. Wonder what the first market to hit 1 year of glut will be? I'm betting on good 'ol Phoenix, closing fast, but Sac Town is coming 'round the bend...

Riverside County
9/05: 2.1 months
2/06: 4.4 months

Las Vegas/Clark County
7/05: 3.4 months
2/06: 7.5 months

Phoenix Metro
7/05: 1.1 months
2/06: 6.6 months

Sacramento Metro
2/05: 1.9 months
2/06: 8.4 months

San Diego County
7/05: 3.0 months
2/06: 6.0 months

Orange County
7/05: 1.5 months
2/06: 3.9 months

Los Angeles County
8/05: 1.7 months
2/06: 4.6 months


Anonymous said...

Where is Orlando Florida in the list? 25% spec ownership here.

Bake McBride said...

Any stats on Miami??

I was in Naples, Florida the other day and couldn't believe how many condos were for sale.....One new building that is about to be complete has 45 units for sale by flippers....And they have 2 more buildings to complete on the complex.

Anonymous said...

LOOK at what has happened downtown Orlando! People catch bird flu from
dryed and aerosolized BIRD DROPINGS!!! Bird Flu is in The Bahamas headed for the eastern sea board!
This pic is where the downtown high priced Condo BOOM is!!!
I can not believe this.

David said...

I hear Naples is already at a 28 months supply.

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Anonymous said...

Where did you get the supply numbers? I know where to get the inventory but where did you get the months supply numbers?

Anonymous said...

It will be either west coast of Floriduh or someplace 75 miles from Sacramento where there are no jobs and people commute to the Bay Area. BTW, I get a LOT of recruiter e-mails from the Bay Area now (I'm near Santa Barbara). It seems they can't get people to live there for the normal $85K IT salary anymore...

ocrenter said...

with appologies to the Floridians, my inventory tracking hasn't made its way across the Mississippi, may be a bit too much for me to handle. But surely someone in Florida should start tracking inventory.

Anonymous said...

San Diego supply is quickly approaching 20,000...but, no reason to panic. It's spring and things will pick up (insert sarcasm).

renting in mass said...

I had been thinking Phoenix, but looking at the numbers, I am switching to Sacramento. How do places like this become bubbles anyway. San Fran, LA, Boston, I understand, but Sacramento?

Anonymous said...

I would have thought Phoenix would...but for some strange reason, it's still doing well.

I just checked, and months of inventory are only @ about 5.6 months. That's almost normal.

I doubt it will go over 8.

Osman said...

It would be MUCH more meaningful to see the same period a year ago. RE is highly seasonal. Here's the seasonal curve for my local market. Note this year's inventory levels.

Also, still waiting to hear where you got or how you calculated months of supply as one of the anons asked on 3/22.