I still find it humourous when the "experts" in the face of data, hoping against hope, predict "soft landings" and "slowdown, not a burst".
"Sharp contraction" is more like it. And memo to NAR: It's already underway.
Home price surge may be leveling off
David Lereah, the NAR's chief economist, cautioned that the market is rapidly cooling
I don't want to say this is the last hurrah, but it certainly reflects the peak of the boom in terms of price appreciation," Lereah said. "It wasn't the highest quarter for price appreciation ... but it covered a big part of the country — 72 metros is enormous." Sales of existing homes are falling faster than Lereah had expected. Price appreciation could slow to single digits this quarter and will reach only 5% for the year, he predicts.
Mortgage applications last week slid 7.3%, on a seasonally adjusted basis, to the lowest in two years, the Mortgage Bankers Association said, lending support to market pessimists.
"It's looking more likely ... that we're going to get a sharp contraction," says Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.
February 16, 2006
"Slowdown?" I don't think so. This is more accurate: "It's looking more likely ... that we're going to get a sharp contraction,"
Posted by blogger at 2/16/2006