SE Phoenix: 11,521 homes for sale: Slow SE Valley market puts listings highest in years

Ya know, starting last January (2005) or so, I started doing my own research on bubbles, manias, panics, meltdowns, etc. I owned a home in Arizona, and was thinking things were getting a bit nuts.

So I did the charts, I read my history books. I looked at days on market, the cost of renting vs. owning, the PE of housing. I looked at human behaviour during other asset bubbles. And hey, it wasn't hard, I listened to the stories from bartenders, taxi drivers, etc about flipping condos and pre-construction bonanzas. Heck, I even thought of playing that game myself - seemed soooo easy.

And I realized then that I was not only living smack dab in the middle of the biggest asset bubble in human history, that I was coincidently living IN the asset being bubbled.

So I hired a realtor, put my loft out at a ridiculous price (previous high on my floorplan was $200k a few months before, so I put it out at $340k for giggles)

And lo and behold, 12 weeks later, had a buyer.

Well, that was the top. July 2005. I tried to tell all my friends and neighbors what was happening, but most chose to ignore that advice. So I started a blog, to do what I could.

And now, folks, it can be said.

I told you so.

Here's the latest from my 'hood. This is going to end badly for Phoenix. Badly as in nuclear war bad. As in Tonya Harding bad. As in Screech from Saved by the Bell bad.

The number of single-family homes for sale in the Southeast Valley reached 11,521 last month, which, if not a record, is at least the highest number in recent years. The last time the Southeast Valley had listings in the 10,000 range was in late 2002 and early 2003, according to the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service Inc.

Realtors and housing analysts believe the number of listings is high because investors have begun dumping houses, home sales are usually slow in the beginning of the year and people who wanted to move held off because it was so difficult to buy another home for about a year.

And the average time on the market lengthened to 47 days, compared with four days in January 2005 and 68 in January 2004.