February 20, 2006

Question for HP readers: So say you just bought a $700,000 condo in __________


What'll it be worth in 36 months in:

A: Phoenix
B: San Diego
C: Tampa
D: Boston
E: Miami
F: Las Vegas
G: LA/OC

Here's my guesses - list yours. (Oh, enjoy the pic of the NASDAQ bubble - a reminder that bubbles do happen, and they do burst)

A: $450,000
B: $430,000
C: $480,000
D: $480,000
E: $375,000
F: #410,000
G: $490,000

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

A: Phoenix $79,000
B: San Diego $590,000
C: Tampa $79,000
D: Boston $189,000
E: Miami $79,000
F: Las Vegas $$99,000
G: LA/OC $590,000

Robert Coté said...

A: Phoenix $240,000
B: San Diego $350,000
C: Tampa $220,000
D: Boston $350,000
E: Miami $220,000
F: Las Vegas $220,000
G: LA/OC $400,000

Notice that LA/OC doesn't seem to fall that much but that's because you limited the decline to the next 36 months. While the others will be close to bouncing along the bottm by then LA/OC will still be Wiley Coyote falling of the cliff with trhe big rock close behind him.

cereal said...

i'm buying my san diego condo from cote. keith is way too expensive

Anonymous said...

A: Phoenix $378,000
B: San Diego $392,000
C: Tampa $390,000
D: Boston $418,000
E: Miami $379,000
F: Las Vegas $489,000
G: LA/OC $396,000

A: Phoenix has major problems because they’ll never run out of land, but they will run out of investors.

B: San Diego simply has too many people pretending to be rich buying homes/condos at 8-12 times their annual income.

C: Tampa is a more moderated example of South Florida.

D: Boston is a more moderated example of San Diego (7-10 x’s annual incomes).

E: Miami is perhaps the poster child for speculation, and I have little doubt it will be one of the hardest hit.

F: Las Vegas will take it on the nose and may fall faster than the other cities, but will likely recover quicker than the others due to the fact that people with a lot of money will want to buy 2nd properties there.

G: LA is going to collapse but it will not be as bad as OC and the primary reason is OC will get you the least out of all the cities mentioned for 700k right now. A more extreme version of San Diego.

There you have it!

moman said...

C (Tampa): $200,000
E (Miami): $250,000

There are lots of differences between Tampa and Miami.

Miami is home to many latin American operations of large corporations; Tampa is home to a large number of trailer parks

Miami is considered a world-class city, Tampa is a backwater on the west coast of FL

Miami is constrained in growth by the Everglades on two sides, sprawl on one side, ocean on one side and politcos won't allow builders to fill the Everglades in forever; Tampa is surrounded on three sides by plenty of farmland and buildable open space

I live in Tampa and I strongly believe that although Miami is the poster child for speculation in Florida, it will bust quickly and recover. Tampa will take a decade or better to recover.

Anonymous said...

AnonyRuss

Russ only knows one market well enough to give an honest assessment.

A. Phoenix $400,000

(If it was a single-family house instead of a condo, $475,000.)

keith said...

folks, if these guesses are even CLOSE to reality, there's trouble ahead like this country has never seen. agree?

keith said...

folks, if these guesses are even CLOSE to reality, there's trouble ahead like this country has never seen. agree?

confused said...

only can give my opinion on Miami and Tampa. Many many condos on the market in Miami. In my building (condo conversion North Bay Village) 45 units up for sale since beginning Dec,none sold and lowest one on market with great view was contracted for 319K now back on the market for 309 k and so far no takers.
The boom has come to an end as it should be, no one in their right bank account can afford to buy these things. It is about time we realize the emperor is wearing no clothes!!
Miami: $390.000
Tampa: 300.000 (not much to offer).
Also if 700K condos go down by as much at 40% the less expensive ones will follow and what on earth will happen to the economy when the home equity loans have been spent??
On the other hand prices simply can't continue to go up with a median household income of $45.000.00???
It will be an historic few years.

Grinch34 said...

Confused is right on the mark!!!!

Mozo420 said...

I won't break it out into specific markets. But:

30% drop the first year.
20% the next
15% the next.

700 x .7 x .8 x .85 = 333 thou.

Anonymous said...

keith-

How can you say "trouble ahead like never seen"?!??!

What is troublesome about people living in houses they can actually afford and the country as a whole gettting back to doing sthg. PRODUCTIVE with our $$?!

Good riddance housing bubble, hello productivity!

Orgiastikos said...

Washington: $585,000
New York: $610,000

Robert Coté said...

Okay, everybody calm down. This is condos and this is three years from now and this is assessed value. Hardly anoyone bought at the top and very very few of them are going to sell at the bottom. We are talking theoretical valuations not same condo buy and sell. And remember, these are CONDOS fer cripes sake. It's not like these buggers are important in the scheme of things.

Anonymous said...

Can only comment on LA/OC based on price reduction and "days on market" data from ziprealty.com...

I'm forecasting a 20% decline in home values in this area over the next 3 years, so $560,000

Anonymous said...

A: Phoenix $545,000.

This is only about 20% higher than before the bubble started, and 4 years later (a mere 5%/year). Why anyone would expect prices in Phoenix to go much lower than this is a mystery to me.

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