What'll it be worth in 36 months in:
A: Phoenix
B: San Diego
C: Tampa
D: Boston
E: Miami
F: Las Vegas
G: LA/OC
Here's my guesses - list yours. (Oh, enjoy the pic of the NASDAQ bubble - a reminder that bubbles do happen, and they do burst)
A: $450,000
B: $430,000
C: $480,000
D: $480,000
E: $375,000
F: #410,000
G: $490,000
February 20, 2006
Question for HP readers: So say you just bought a $700,000 condo in __________
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14 comments:
A: Phoenix $79,000
B: San Diego $590,000
C: Tampa $79,000
D: Boston $189,000
E: Miami $79,000
F: Las Vegas $$99,000
G: LA/OC $590,000
A: Phoenix $240,000
B: San Diego $350,000
C: Tampa $220,000
D: Boston $350,000
E: Miami $220,000
F: Las Vegas $220,000
G: LA/OC $400,000
Notice that LA/OC doesn't seem to fall that much but that's because you limited the decline to the next 36 months. While the others will be close to bouncing along the bottm by then LA/OC will still be Wiley Coyote falling of the cliff with trhe big rock close behind him.
A: Phoenix $378,000
B: San Diego $392,000
C: Tampa $390,000
D: Boston $418,000
E: Miami $379,000
F: Las Vegas $489,000
G: LA/OC $396,000
A: Phoenix has major problems because they’ll never run out of land, but they will run out of investors.
B: San Diego simply has too many people pretending to be rich buying homes/condos at 8-12 times their annual income.
C: Tampa is a more moderated example of South Florida.
D: Boston is a more moderated example of San Diego (7-10 x’s annual incomes).
E: Miami is perhaps the poster child for speculation, and I have little doubt it will be one of the hardest hit.
F: Las Vegas will take it on the nose and may fall faster than the other cities, but will likely recover quicker than the others due to the fact that people with a lot of money will want to buy 2nd properties there.
G: LA is going to collapse but it will not be as bad as OC and the primary reason is OC will get you the least out of all the cities mentioned for 700k right now. A more extreme version of San Diego.
There you have it!
C (Tampa): $200,000
E (Miami): $250,000
There are lots of differences between Tampa and Miami.
Miami is home to many latin American operations of large corporations; Tampa is home to a large number of trailer parks
Miami is considered a world-class city, Tampa is a backwater on the west coast of FL
Miami is constrained in growth by the Everglades on two sides, sprawl on one side, ocean on one side and politcos won't allow builders to fill the Everglades in forever; Tampa is surrounded on three sides by plenty of farmland and buildable open space
I live in Tampa and I strongly believe that although Miami is the poster child for speculation in Florida, it will bust quickly and recover. Tampa will take a decade or better to recover.
AnonyRuss
Russ only knows one market well enough to give an honest assessment.
A. Phoenix $400,000
(If it was a single-family house instead of a condo, $475,000.)
folks, if these guesses are even CLOSE to reality, there's trouble ahead like this country has never seen. agree?
folks, if these guesses are even CLOSE to reality, there's trouble ahead like this country has never seen. agree?
I won't break it out into specific markets. But:
30% drop the first year.
20% the next
15% the next.
700 x .7 x .8 x .85 = 333 thou.
keith-
How can you say "trouble ahead like never seen"?!??!
What is troublesome about people living in houses they can actually afford and the country as a whole gettting back to doing sthg. PRODUCTIVE with our $$?!
Good riddance housing bubble, hello productivity!
Okay, everybody calm down. This is condos and this is three years from now and this is assessed value. Hardly anoyone bought at the top and very very few of them are going to sell at the bottom. We are talking theoretical valuations not same condo buy and sell. And remember, these are CONDOS fer cripes sake. It's not like these buggers are important in the scheme of things.
Can only comment on LA/OC based on price reduction and "days on market" data from ziprealty.com...
I'm forecasting a 20% decline in home values in this area over the next 3 years, so $560,000
A: Phoenix $545,000.
This is only about 20% higher than before the bubble started, and 4 years later (a mere 5%/year). Why anyone would expect prices in Phoenix to go much lower than this is a mystery to me.
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