February 24, 2006

I just wonder what it's gonna look like when those tens of thousands of Miami condos hit the market


What do they say - adding fuel to the fire? Think of all those condos in Miami (and Phoenix, and San Diego, and DC, and Boston, and ...) that were started a couple years ago, all "purchased" by speculators, that are going to be hitting this poisoned market in just the next few months.

Oh, man, it's gonna get ugly(ier). I hope many of you went to higher ground. It's too late really to do anything - those days were last year. Now it's time to grin and bear it. It's hitting the fan right now.

Homes hit the market in record numbers

When Taffie Prince placed her Apopka home on the market last fall, she figured it would be snapped up within weeks. Four months later, she's still waiting. And the asking price has been lowered by $5,000 in the past 90 days to $154,900.

"I was told the quarter-acre of land would sell the house. But it's still for sale. I don't know what else to do," Prince, 32, said Monday. Part of the problem: The inventory of Orlando-area homes for sale has ballooned again. Suddenly, for-sale signs are everywhere.

The Orlando Regional Realtor Association reported Monday that the record 12,015 existing homes for sale in January in the core Orlando market was nearly four times the number available a year earlier.

And most of those homes hit the market in January, when members entered 6,172 homes with the Mid-Florida Regional Multiple Listing Service, compared with 2,970 in January 2005.

"It's getting a little scary," said Franco Ferrari, co-owner of Ample Realty in Orlando, the agency listing Prince's three-bedroom home.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

just like the telecom companies adding capacity in 1999 right before the mother of all crashes

the builders and developers adding units to the fire (the market) right at the exact time they're not needed

flippers are going to be walking away from their deposits left and right

Anonymous said...

Orlando is slightly better than a slum. Can you imagine working in a city driven almost entirely by tourism? Disney throws a fit about everything that doesn't go it's way. (Remember the bullet train that was going up I-Drive?)

Sorry - remove the big Rat and 50% of Orlando is gone. The economy there was in shambles after 9/11. It will be a poster child for what happens when cash-outs dry up and expensive vacations stop.

Anonymous said...

I live in Miami and still renting out of fear, but I guess I should say intelligence. The amount of condos is amazing. Our skyline is forever changing. No one seems to know who is buying these expensive small places many of which are in dangerous and neglected neighborhoods.

Most locals laugh in horror, but there are many people with no real estate experience that have cashed in on the interest in their shacks in the hopes of flipping another propery. Of course a lot of people have made some money, but even more are going to lose out. The people who are really going to suffer are the little guys.

Case in point: a cab driver telling me about his plans to refinance a house he bought years ago to buy a pre-construction condo in Doral where nobody wants to live or commute from. He said they tell him it will be built in 8-12 months. Yeah right! He said that was too long and I said that is too fast b/c it couldn't possibly be done in that amount of time.

Contractors can't even get the equipment and people to build b/c they are tied up here or have left for the Gulf Coast.

Needless to say, this conversation ended with the Cabby telling me he lost tons in the stock market. I kept thinking and you are about to lose tons in the housing market. He finished the conversatin saying that he doesn't believe the prices will go down. I believe that they already have. The days of "gifting" the seller 20-40k over asking to lock in your deal are done!

To sum it up, we have COMPLETE DENIAL down here even though all signs are pointing to a current slowdown and possibly a bust in the next year or so. I see many just reduced signs and the market is flooding. Two developers pulled out of building their huge condo buildings and it looks like another is slated to do the same. Those poor fools who were hoping to flip are now most likely not going to get all of their deposit back.

This is just the beginning.

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