February 25, 2006

HP recommended class project: Is housing in a bubble that will burst?

I'm hoping there are some teachers amongst us. Fifth grade through eighth grade, perhaps a high school home ec, economics or general business teacher out there?

If so, let us know. We'll help you craft a lesson plan or group project where you students (unbiased) can do their research on this market, historical bubbles, and current data, and come up with their conclusions.

I think it'd be fascinating for sixth graders to report on what we all know.

This baby is gonna blow. Or is blowing.

Wonder what their parents will do when Johnny brings home his report.

(oh, I was gonna put up a picture of a schoolhouse, but went with Bill 'cause he changed my life - made me want to be a polysci major at age 12. You can learn some pretty valuable things in fifth grade. I think kids after working on this project won't make the mistakes of their parents so easily. Johnny will understand the faults with no-doc, no-down negative am mortgages pretty quick, wouldn't ya say?)


Anonymous said...

That's a great idea. In fact I myself have contemplated of having my 12 year old daughter attend a 3 day class on the basics of money management for teens. I hope that HP can make a difference and offer a different perspective to the young generation - that excessive borrowing and spending can be toxic.

More power to you Keith.

Anonymous said...

I have talked to my 16 year old daughter till blue in thed face. She thinks real este only goes up because it is all she has seen. She has no real concept of money because she has not had to go out and earn it.

Anonymous said...

utah/ austin/ seattle,bainbridge island, s&s homes in socal still selling homes no problem and no drop in prices. Were years away from melt down if any. The prices will be flat maybe for years in my estimate. People on all the sites keep talking about rates going up but rates still have not moved much so tell the truth. Rates will have to get to 7.5 to 8 to have a real impact. The only thing that will cause real estate to crash is if china, japan , south korea etc stop buying our bonds but this wont happen no where else to put there money.

keith said...

gee I wish anonymous posters would take the time out of their busy lives and create an identity...

onlygoesup said...

Socal prices ARE going down!! Who are you trying to fool? Yourself? You must have bought high and now you are trying to convince yourself that it was a good investment. I live here in North Coastal San Diego and I see all the real estate signs are up and staying up, now the new sign to add to the sign is the "price reduced" sign. Homes that were selling for $849k last summer are now selling (offered) at $669-709k. This isnt a price drop? It sure is to me. There are even new homes that are finished and still have not sold (even though they were sold in the summer). These homes are for sale by the developer and are NOT selling.
As for Utah homes, sure they may be going up now, but that place will crash so hard it will make your head spin. Utahns believe that the real estate market there will do the same thing as in CA, AZ, etc.... Utah is a great place, but it has no where near the big employers needed to support track homes prices in the $400k+ range. Utah already has a mojor problem with bankruptcy, this will only get worse with foreclosures.
This whole housing mess is going to be no ones fault but that of the greedy!!! Your debt will consume you!!! Well, then again, you can always get a 40 year loan.

Anonymous said...

Why Johnny can't do mortgage math and ends up paying 2 million for a house worth 200,000.

Homeowners are just polishing brass on the Titanic. It's all going down soon. Those getting out early will get on a lifeboat, those that don't, hasta la vista baby!

Anonymous said...

To lazy to set identity today. For your info sold 2 houses over the last 5 years made some money. used half of the profits for 3 rental prop in and around salt lake city. positive cashflow on fixed rates. One condo has io locked 4 more years at 4.75. Purchased for 110,000 rents 1025 monthly. same condo sold last month for 180,000. If price drops i'll pay off balance cash. Keep reading. 5 months ago i moved to maui i rent a millon dollars home which is a shack on 2 acres( i could not buy) for 1,500 monthly. I work for a gc go to the beach alot. will do this for 3-5 month then maybe move back to the mainland

keith said...

i can rent a million dollar home in hawaii for $1500. seriously?

let's see, payments etc on that would be $6500 a month. and rent for $1500

see the problem there?

but sign me up

Anonymous said...

Thats why i'm renting not buying in maui. Its 1000sq ft 3+2 near the windsurfing capital of the world (hookipa). Almost no hawaiian left either moved to vegas,cali,washington. Most homeowners have come from cali with lots of cash and dont care what the rent vs owning means. Housing bust seems far away if ever. what i see happening is richer and poorer. Better paying jobs and lower paying no middle ground.

cindy said...

keith- re. your annonymous poster- this guy just keeps pasting the same message on every board!!

Something tells me he IS going to be very busy over the next several months trying to prop up Seattle/SoCal/Utah RE all by his lonesome!

Het it's a TOUGH JOB but somebody's gotta do it!

41cadillac said...

I lived in Utah from 1935 to 1992. Bought and sold 7 homes and/or condos. As a teenager I started my hobby of going into open houses.

In 2005 29% of the mortgages taken to buy homes were "INTEREST ONLY" loans.

Today checking: http://www.utahrealestate.com/567839

Shows a 3 bedroom home on "I" Street for $430,000. In 1992 when I left Utah for California that type of home would have sold for $79,000. Someone bought and upgraded kitchens and baths ect. Probably someone will buy with and Interest Only loan. Then get caught when the loan adjusts.

There certainly is low unemployment in Utah 3.7%. However so many jobs pay $10.00 and hour.

I have been looking for a summer home in Utah. All the Realtors are absolutely sure that Utah is "different" and prices will not drop.

Just Wait until Mr. Ben increases interest rates this year and next. Then even Utah will bust. Mr. Ben will have no choice but to raise interest rate to keep the dollar strong so the Treasure Notes will sell. There is no other way.


P.S. I was the happy owner of a 1941 Cadillac while I went to the University of Utah. I worked in a Cadillac Dealership in the afternoons and went to the "U" in the mornings for 4 years. Bought the Caddy for $150 from the Used Car Dept. It was the sherrifs car. Looked great but needed rings so I burned a lot of oil. The men in the lube dept. would catch the cleanest oil and give it to me. I put in a quart of oil every day. True Story.

Anonymous said...

In the year prior to Hurricane Wilma, which ripped through south Florida in October, 2005, 64 homes had new owners at the . A snapshot of the present may show the Housing Bubble has already popped. Read more ....

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