Muslim protests sweep the globe in a matter of days. The Steelers beat Seattle and billions know about it. The internet, media and air travel have created, for the first time in human history, a truly global village.
So, welcome to the first world-wide coordinated financial meltdown. London, Phoenix, Sydney, Boston, Shanghai, ....
Since the "LTCM crisis" of 1998 and the start of the meltdown of global stock markets in March 2000, central banks around the world geared up their money printing machines to postpone a systemic collapse.
Within two years, starting in January 2001, Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan pushed down short-term interest rates from 6.0% to 1.0%, with European central banks following.
As a result, we are witnessing the biggest explosion in consumer and mortgage debt in history.
In the center of these new bubbles is the global housing boom. Representing a combined financial asset value of roughly $50 trillion in the OECD countries-for the moment holding up a private debt mountain of similar dimensions-the housing market certainly has the potential to bring down the whole system. And everybody knows it might happen soon.
February 08, 2006
Housing boom: `history's first global property bust' coming
Posted by blogger at 2/08/2006
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29 comments:
The market hasn't imploded in Sydney or London and because prices "asked" and prices "sold" is only a small portion of the real issue. Houses like stock are not all bought in one day. Some houses have been paid for for years,others bought yesterday with 0% down, 20% down or 50% down depending on the buyer. Other's were bought 15 years ago and some equity has been extracted but still no where near what would have been if sold. Even if 60,000 houses were sold in Phoenix in 2005 at "bubble" prices there still remain a population of 4 million with many who bought their homes up to fifty years ago and lots of those homes with no mortgages.
Just because someone buys Coca Cola today at $40 a share when everyone else say 10 years ago paid $8 a share doesn't mean that if the stock market tanks and the shares drop to $10 a share (guess that is more than a 75% drop) that everyone bites the dust. Those who paid $8 a share are still doing okay.
The greater threat to this country is our trade deficit and as far as house bubbles? America remains one of the most affordable nations in the world with one of the highest standards of living. Even the poor in this country are better off today than the working class 30 years ago.
Well I don't know what low-class crowd you hang with but statistics and averages don't cut it in my field. Everyone I work with and all my personal friends are doing quite well and we are not the "the super rich". Every person I work with, save the few that clean the floors or work in the kitchen and are mostly migrants, each have average household incomes of over $100,000 on the low end and many of my friends earn (with two incomes) $130-200,000 a year and the professionals above us earn two to three times that amount.
Most of them own $500,000 plus homes and they are very affordable to them. I have a six figure income and choose to live more simply (no judgement against those who choose to live more extravegently if it isn't credit driven) and have no debt and would never pay $3,000 a month or more for a house or rent.
American incomes are rising, though not as fast as they should, and so is inflation. In 20 years American's will have twice the income of Europeans and it is a lot less expensive to live in the USA than there (I've lived in Europe).
The only reason some areas see lower rent than home prices is because of the high number of home owners (some 60-70%) in markets other than places like California though I imagine the fact that so few can afford to buy a home there doesn't reflect that a large number of Californians own their homes and owe much less than the current sales prices.
In Austin where I am building my current home it is less expensive to own than rent. I'd have to pay at least $1,000 a month more to rent the same house that I'm building. And to compare it with the house I sold in Phoenix, three times the house. While I've been building the house (for 11 months) my rent here in Phoenix is higher than my mortgage payment will be in Austin.
Most of the bloggers on this site need to get a taste of reality and see what it is like overseas. In Karbul a 1/2 acre goes for a mil in a city with no infrastructure. Want to see expensive? Got to London or Barcelona or Rome. Yes, you can find places that are affordable if you consider 800 sq ft in a bad area at a price of two weeks pay affordable.
And for those who haven't lived in the 70s where stagflation was the norm don't have a clue about how incomes and jobs can stagnat and prices can soar. Where do you think California's house bubble got its start?
Homes are more affordable today than in 1980 and in many areas of the country home prices adjusted for inflation are just now rising to the level they were in 1980 only more affordable as a percentage of one's income.
As I've mentioned in other comments I've lost a lot of respect for a site that has become "Fundamentalist" in its attitude and attempts to only give "testimonies" (like in church among believers) that only reinforce the fundamentalist view of a major house bubble and imminent collapse (gosh, when did you say Jesus was returning?).
Only when people truely discuss value, compare apples with apples, recognize that some markets are over heated and need to correct but that in those markets not everyone that owns a house is hundred's of thousands under water since most paid a lot less than what the average house in those area's sell for, and that you can't compare a 1962 1000 sq ft house with a median price of x with a 3300 sq ft house in 2005 with a price of y.
This site isn't a place of rational discussion on value and isn't a site that most commentators are interested in anything but promoting fear and "irrational exhuberence" in reverse.
There is a lot of money in this country and a lot of peope with a lot of assets in their 401s, pension plans, military/government pensions added to thier incomes from good middle class jobs and because you or someone you know may be over extended doesn't mean all of us are.
"Well I don't know what low-class crowd you hang with but statistics and averages don't cut it in my field. Everyone I work with and all my personal friends are doing quite well and we are not the "the super rich". Every person I work with, save the few that clean the floors or work in the kitchen and are mostly migrants, each have average household incomes of over $100,000 on the low end and many of my friends earn (with two incomes) $130-200,000 a year and the professionals above us earn two to three times that amount."
"Most of them own $500,000 plus homes and they are very affordable to them. I have a six figure income and choose to live more simply (no judgement against those who choose to live more extravegently if it isn't credit driven) and have no debt and would never pay $3,000 a month or more for a house or rent."
"In Austin where I am building my current home it is less expensive to own than rent. I'd have to pay at least $1,000 a month more to rent the same house that I'm building. And to compare it with the house I sold in Phoenix, three times the house. While I've been building the house (for 11 months) my rent here in Phoenix is higher than my mortgage payment will be in Austin."
Since you're not really buying houses in those bubble areas, you're actually comparing apples with oranges yourself. I happen not to be a "low-class" and have combined income of 200K, and happen to live in D.C. metro, may I have a few words? I don't know anything about Phonix, but here in D.C. metro, what 500K will buy? A 2-bd/2-bt condo if one wants to live in a nice school district. For a 3bd/2bt town house, expect to pay over $700K. Say whatever you want, this price is indeed out of reality.
Right now, the problem is not about affordability anymore. The problem is about the habit of spending beyond one's means. Just like the country is doing to itself, a whole bunch of people in this country are spending way beyond their means following our leaders. I don't know how those $500K plus houses are so affordable to your herd. I owned a $320K house in Midwest myself when we had a combined income of $110K. After paying all those expenses on house and kids, we have no money left to save, which makes me very uncomfortable. That's why I set up the rules of not buying more than 2.5 tims of our gross incomes. I also don't know how the rich people you're bragging about make the ends meet. Please read the following post about how an ordinary fammily spend their monthly income before you insult otherd.
http://housingbubblecasualty.com/
forum/index.php?PHPSESSID=bc5301e
1e6be8c143c37efe2e3f4e732&topic=
13.0
BTW: you being in a financially prestigous environment doesn't give you the right to deny the statistics and to judge others.
"The only reason some areas see lower rent than home prices is because of the high number of home owners (some 60-70%) in markets other than places like California though I imagine the fact that so few can afford to buy a home there doesn't reflect that a large number of Californians own their homes and owe much less than the current sales prices."
First of all, do your research before using your imagination. If all the people bought their homes when the prices was low, can you please explain to me how come there are suddenly such crazy increases in listings of RE for sale in almost all bubble areas?
"The market hasn't imploded in Sydney or London and because prices "asked" and prices "sold" is only a small portion of the real issue. Houses like stock are not all bought in one day."
I agree with you that the house market is unlike stock market. The price will not crash overnight, but in a long, painful way (look at Japen). But right now it's too early to say what's going to happen to London and Sidney next.
"Most of the bloggers on this site need to get a taste of reality and see what it is like overseas."
And my guess is that you don't know much about overseas yourself. I happen to be an immigrant, so I would say I know a little bit more about overseas than you do. Do you know how ordinary people buy properties in my hometown (in which median property value is about 8-9 times the median household income)? Most of them use cashes they saved for years. The banks begin to do RE mortage in recent years, but they have very strict rules for ordinary people to borrow, one'll have to pay down more than 30%, adequate proof of the income and even some kind of proof that one is not going to retire in the terms of the mortgage. My parents bought the first place they call home 4 years ago when they were 50 years old. They put 50% for down payment (a lot of my relatives still pay cashes), which by the way is because they only saved money for 5 years. The bank almost refused their mortgage application because they were afraid that my parents would retire after 5 years and not have the ability to make payments. Finally the loan was approved for them to pay off in 5 years. When I told my dad about all those exotic loans American's are doing right now and about 80% of Cal. RE buyers last year used 100% I/O loans, he was startled.
"As I've mentioned in other comments I've lost a lot of respect for a site that has become "Fundamentalist" in its attitude and attempts to only give "testimonies" (like in church among believers) that only reinforce the fundamentalist view of a major house bubble and imminent collapse (gosh, when did you say Jesus was returning?)."
I agree with you that some of the bloggers make no sense sometimes. However, what I see mostly are honest people try to make honest inputs and rational judgements; and they do help me a lot to understand the market and make decisions fit for me. The best one I see so far is housingbubblecasualty.com, check it out, you may like it.
Same Anon. here, after working years with M.D.'s, I noticed that they are very arrogant bunch. Many have no respect to other people.
Foxwoodlief-
It is simply not true that houses are less expensive today than they were in the 80's.
I know that because I bought a house in the 80's after working for ONE and a HALF years as a high school teacher.
After one and a half years I had saved a big enough downpayment so that my mortgage and taxes came to about $250 a month. The down payment was about 25% of the total cast of the house.
Now where the hell is a HS teacher going to go in the US where they can buy a house after teaching and saving for 1&1/2 years and put down a 25% downpayment??
It sounds like you have been living in the world of statistics and not paying close attention to reality for quite some time now.
But doctors from third world countries are some of the most awesome people on the planet.
I learned not to put them in the same category as you average US doctor.
many folks have done well during this upswing (author included)
but even rich people will lose the false "appreciation" of their homes vs. the top. that's ok. nothing wrong with that. as long as you didn't borrow against the "equity" as many (most) did
But who'll get killed is the recent buyers. Buy a $1 Million home (from Bob Toll) and it's now instantly worth $800,000. $200,000 even to the "doing well" crowd hurts.
Losing money is losing money, no matter what your social strata.
And denial, well, there's no socioeconomic monopoly on that one
I really liked reading Foxwoodlief's post. It is nice to hear both sides of the issue so that we can get a better sense of the situation.
In fact, I would love to hear reasons why there is no bubble because it allows me to test how accurate my view that there is a bubble is.
Keith, perhaps you should start a thread on why there is NO bubble and encourage people to contribute to that.
As for doctors making more money these days, that is simply not true. Doctors make a fraction of what they made in the '80s. You can thank the HMOs for that!
foxwoodlief is a doctor?! holy sh!t.
foxwoodlief,
It appears this blog has got your panties all in a bunch. Your LONG WINDED arguments are all over the place... apples and oranges, coca cola, me an my rich friends... What the heck are you talking about? You are whining about something, but I'm not quite sure about what. Can you explain your main points more concisely and more precisely?
My understanding is that Fooxwoodlief is a MALE NURSE, not a M.D. This is not an insult, but let's not use his assumed stature as a M.D. to give his posts more credence.
The truth of the matter is that you cannot compare a house in London with a house in Dallas. There is no good method to compare a house in Brasilia with a house in San Diego. Each country has vastly different value systems. In America we place an emphasis on the individual (pickup truck driving suburbanites in McMansions) where other countries but an emphasis on community and mass transit.
Much of the U.S. market is in a housing bubble regardless of the remainder of the world market.
Fox's comments make no sense either about housing being cheap in this country relative to others'. This country has immense downward pressure on wages from overseas employees (India/China) who would love to take our jobs for half of our value. That sounds like a real win/win to me, rising housing prices and shrinking wages.
Today, if I'm in Austin, I would be buying too. But most of us are not in bubble-immune Texas where builders can just keep building and building as far as the eye can see.
If you have an income of $150,000, $500,000 homes are really not that bad financially. However, $500,000 gets a 1,000 sqft condo these days or a SFR in the hoods in bubble areas. Again, comparing apples to oranges.
as for the doctor bashing, the bubble is affecting everyone, even the doctors. fact is doctors really don't make that much anymore.
Don't you mean male nurse?
after working years with M.D.'s, I noticed that they are very arrogant bunch. Many have no respect to other people.
My cousin is a newly minted doctor. He says that the vast majority of the interns and students who become doctors are in it for the money. Nothing new. No wonder health insurance is so expensive.
I live in Austin and I am with foxwoodlief on this one. His arguments are not off base but it is amazing how many of you folks jump on them. And what is up with this doctor hate thing??? Jeez. Doctors in the US are self centered. Doctors overseas are nice people. What????? All Americans want McMansions. Folks overseas think in terms of mass transit. Whatever??? I lived overseas for 4 years. I have no idea what you are talking about. Residences where I lived were mansions, even by US standards, surrounded by 8 foot concrete walls to keep out the poor people (except for the maids and gardeners). Where is your data to back up your claim that folks overseas emphasize community? All I see in US are planned communities going up right and left.
There is recent study (I am sure someone can link it for me?) that showed that, despite record home prices, as a percentage of income, mortgage payments are not at an all time high. I figure much of this has to do with historically low interest rates and a greater number of I dual income households. In my situation, my mortgage including taxes and hazard insurance is roughly 10% of my household's gross income. I enjoy a middle class income, and I live in a modest neighborhood.
Roughly 37% of all homes in the US are paid for outright. Those folks don't mind if their property values appreciate.
High valuations adversly affect only those trying to buy their first home. Low valuations adversly affect only those retirees looking to cash out. This 'bubble' doesn't affect present homeowners. If I presently own a home and a 'bubble' bursts so that all homes lose half their value. No problem. Because it stands to reason the next home I'll be moving to will have also depreciated by a similar ratio. Same principle applies to appreciation. When it is time to move to the next home, I'll enjoy a nice gain on the one I sell, but will have to pony up twice as much for the next one.
Although I believe in the bubble, I don't think all markets are in peril. In fact, I think some of the more moribund markets may improve as the shrewd sellers take what they can and move elsewhere. There is still time, but I think this spring and summer may be about there is left. There are buyers out there that are glad to see prices "finally relax" and they'll be biting.
Give it another year or two before you hear people in their conventional wisdom saying "Buy a house? Are you NUTS? You'll get stuck with it and never be able to sell it for a gain!" (What I rememeber hearing from people in California in 1993, whenever the coffee table talk turned to potentially buying something....)
devestment,
that average is skewed by highly subspecialized fields in which the doc went thru over 10 years in residency training making a bit more than minimum wage.
you drop those and you are really looking at $150,000. At 33% tax bracket you are looking at take home of $100,000.
That average to $8000/month. you take away $1000/month for student loans, then you are looking at $7000/month workable income.
a 50 year old Santa Ana home with barred wire costs $600,000 these days (keep in mind a lot of docs were unable to buy until they come out of training, which means they come out hitting the top of the bubble).
At 20% down, this Santa Ana home will cost $3000 in mortgage alone. After car payments and malpractice insurance and disability insurance and health and life, a doctor is lucky to have $2-3000/month for his family to live on.
Of course while the doctor is in med school and residency, the same Santa Ana home was bought for $200,000. As he comes out of training oweing $200,000, he finds the only home he can purchase is something in Santa Ana and he has to pay the seller a $400,000 premium because he missed the bubble while going to med school and residency.
and of course we can all see the attitude toward doctors right here on this forum.
had these same docs been smart enough to join mortgage firms a few years back instead of slaving away at 36 hour shifts, most of them would be driving Bentleys and not Toyotas and renting.
I apologize for my previous post not publishing my sources. I despise folks who make claims with nothing to back them up. So here it goes:
NAR (realtor.org) says the the HAI was 120.8 in August 2005 (which many of you believe was the peak of the 'bubble') which was down from 133. NAR considers anything over 100 HAI as affordable. They did comment on HAI only being 70.1 for first timers. Which is exactly what I was saying about high valuations affecting young folks trying to get into the market. Historically they say:
"... the median mortgage payment consumed only 18.8 percent of family income. In the early 1990s, more than 20 percent of family income went to mortgage payments on a typical home purchase, while in the early 1980s mortgage payment was more than 30 percent of income."
So compared to what my parents had to budget, it is easier for me to afford to buy a house. In my situation, my mortgage (including taxes, hazard ins.) is roughly 10% of my income.
Here is where to find the data regarding the fact that roughly 37% of all homes in US have no mortgages (owned out right). Give me a few more years, and I'll join their ranks.
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/ahs/ahs.html
Anon in Austin,TX
Anonymous said:
"Roughly 37% of all homes in the US are paid for outright. Those folks don't mind if their property values appreciate.
High valuations adversly affect only those trying to buy their first home."
This is absurd. In many parts of the country, property taxes are continually adjusted to reflect the current alleged market value of a home, not its actual selling price. If similar houses in a neighborhood suddenly double in price, EVERYBODY's taxes go up. People who can't pay the new taxes are screwed.
Here in Virginia near Washington D.C., homes have tripled in alleged "value" over the past three years. Our house, which we bought for 150 thousand in 1997 is now "valued" at 800 thousand, and the taxes are prohibitive. Next year, it may be re-evaluated at 400 thousand. Who knows? To claim that ridiculous house prices don't hurt those who bought their homes before they hit is bunk.
Whenever greedy investors create bubbles, they hurt many, many people. How many middle class families today can afford to buy a decent house anywhere in the U.S.? And if the housing bubble really falls in, how many banks are going to be handing out loans for the next ten years?
This attitude of "I got mine" is repulsive. "He who dies with the most toys wins?" How about, "The bigger they are, the harder they fall?"
American doctors ARE greedy bastards, by and large, and this includes American veterinarians who let animals suffer or die because their humans can't come up with thousands of dollars for treatments that actually cost doctors very little (I have a friend who works for a large veterinary clinic and tells me horror stories). I have no respect for "professionals" who consider themselves superior because they have more money than others, especially when they get it by taking it from those they look down upon, exploiting their misery (including illness) for appalling profit.
How pathetic.
Wow. This board is truely amazing.
One of the major reasons for buying a house vs. renting is the idea of locking in a fixed cost, essentially a way of beating inflation. When you buy a house, you will still be paying the exact amount every month on your mortgage for the next 30 years. What is variable (and sure to go up with time) are your real estate taxes and insurance payments. There are also maintenance costs associated with owning a home.
For renters, these same variable costs are passed on to them as rent increases. Landlords certainly aren't going to eat the additional costs. So no one is exempt from rising taxes.
What amazes me is that someone who bought a 150k home that is now worth 800k is truely upset that they have to pay more real estate taxes. I think most average, everyday folks would love to trade places with you. I also think that most average, everyday folks would consider you rich because of it. We'd all be so lucky as to stumble onto such a successful investment. Every time I hear rich people complain about taxes, I think to myself "I'd like to have their problems"
I am still trying to figure out this doctor hate thing. It's a strange kind of classism. It's like elitism, but in reverse. I am not a doctor nor work in the industry. However, I feel like I have to defend it just based on the few health care professionals I know. It's one of the few industries I know where folks commonly perform pro bono (unpaid) work. It's a difficult occupation and the sacrifices go beyond the 12 years of college and interning. The jobs are demanding on many levels: emotionally, long hours away from your family, continuing education, etc.
I do think that some doctors emotionally distance themselves from patients on purpose. That way they can make rationnal decisions that are ultimately in the best interest of their patients. This emotional detachment can lead to a brusque bedside manner. I don't think that should be interpreted as if they do not care. I, for one, consider the medical profession to be noble profession. Now lawyers... (just kiddin)
I think we need a little more love and compasion on this blog.
Anon in Austin, TX
Anonymous said:
'What amazes me is that someone who bought a 150k home that is now worth 800k is truely upset that they have to pay more real estate taxes. I think most average, everyday folks would love to trade places with you. I also think that most average, everyday folks would consider you rich because of it. We'd all be so lucky as to stumble onto such a successful investment. Every time I hear rich people complain about taxes, I think to myself "I'd like to have their problems"'
Oh really? Because the REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY has finagled prices and now my house is judged by the county to be worth 800 thousand dollars, I'm supposed to be happy? I have to come up with nearly 20 thousand dollars to pay my taxes. What should I do? Sell my house and start over? Are you on Planet Earth?
You clearly missed the point. My house IS NOT WORTH 800 THOUSAND DOLLARS just because some boob in the neighborhood sold his house for this much. I AM NOT WEALTHY. My taxes this year are four times what they were last year, and I CANNOT AFFORD THEM. Either I have to take a loan to pay them, or I have to sell my house.
As for doctors, a whole team of them managed to misread the lab reports for my six year old son, who died five years ago from liver failure from a condition that was completely reversable with correct treatment. One of them later apologized. Isn't that sweet? But, guess what? They REMEMBERED TO SEND THE BILLS.
Do you still want to trade places?
"As for doctors, a whole team of them managed to misread the lab reports for my six year old son, who died five years ago from liver failure from a condition that was completely reversable with correct treatment. One of them later apologized. Isn't that sweet? But, guess what? They REMEMBERED TO SEND THE BILLS."
sorry to hear about your son. my thoughts and prayers are with you.
if venting here and cursing doctors can ease the pain of your loss even just a little bit, go for it.
I, too, am very sorry to hear about your son. I can understand your distrust of doctors under those circumstances.
As for your home's high valuation 'problem':
* Challenge your county assessor's appraisal. A few years back I challenged mine and got it knocked down 25% from where they had it. Bring comps. and data to back up your claim.
* Move to beautiful Texas as soon as you can. The median home price in my city is about 200k. In TX, we have this thing known as a 'homestead' exemption. Even if my home is assessed at 800k next year, the most I'll be taxed on is 15% more than it was assessed the previous year. Even if your county assessor stuck it to you every year with the maximum increase, it would still be less than 800k. In your case, it would have worked like such:
1997 150k
1998 173k
1999 198k
2000 227k
2001 262k
2002 301k
2003 346k
2004 398k
2005 456k
2006 527k
* If moving is not an option, consider a reverse mortgage. Sure, the bank will eventually own your home, but in the mean time, you would have taken every penny of that 800k out of it.
* Remember to itemize your deductions when doing your taxes this year. If you are in the 25% tax bracket, your $20k real estate taxes only cost you $15k in the end.
Try to look at the positive side of these things in life. I am sure when it comes to your home, there are many folks who'd change places with you. Some folks work their whole lifes and never manage to save the same amount of equity that you have. You are lucky that all it takes for your asset to appreciate so radically is that there is someone is willing to pay 800k for a similar home to yours. The good news regarding the 20k in real estate taxes is that this new kid on the block will not only have to pay it too, but a mortgage some 5 times that of yours. Besides, real estate taxes go to your local schools, not to the feds who really shouldn't be allowed to manage our money. So you are truely helping out your community. Good luck with everything and try to see positive sides of it.
Anon in Austin, TX
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