From the Iran going crazy post below, a good question from HP reader AY:
AustinYankee said...
By the way, I moved everything I have into GLD, silver, BEARX (bearish mutual fund) and the
Euro ETF. What are ya'll doing?
Loyal readers know my portfolio - 85% cash (at 4.75% now how 'bout that!), with a big COP long, a smidgen of AAPL, EBAY, SBUX, EWJ and a small FNM June put.
I'd short the builders but see too much manipulation, I'm considering buying foreign currency CDs but don't know which one, and EWC is looking good. GLD is also on the radar with a good entry point, or when stuff hits the fan
February 12, 2006
Good question... Answers?
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15 comments:
I think gold is in bubble mode but I know gld is not the way to buy it for me. Buying gld instead of holding the actual metal defeats a large part of the security in the tangible internationally traded commodity.
Also, look at the historic gold charts on Kitko. During the real estate bust of the early 80's and 90's plus during desert storm, gold came down. I bought then because war time is typically good for gold. Instead it cane down with real estate. So who knows the answer? I do, none of us know what will happen
Keith b.....Any of this ring a bell?
"Short all homebuilding, mortgage lender, PMI insurance and real estate
stocks"
"Sell everything except oil stocks"
"Short homebuilders, lenders, Fannie and Freddie, home furnishing retailers
and mortgage insurance companies"
"If/when FRE and FNM are limited - their stocks will plummet -Short 'em"
"One play that I do recommend is EBAY - why? Because the interest only crowd
will be selling everything that's not bolted down to make their payments
(until they're foreclosed) the next few years"
"So I'm cautious with 40% of my assets in 4% savings, 20% in COP, and 40% in
stocks and mutuals"
"HousingPanic Buy Recommendation: SRPIX - ProFunds Short Real Estate Fund"
and finally (my favorite)......
$5000 - 4% interest savings at HSBC
$1000 - short FNM
$1000 - short TOL
$1000 - short TGIC
$1000 - short SPF
$1000 - long COP
all great picks. hope you took 'em
Regarding gold - or any other asset class that has formed a bubble - get out when it appears on the cover of Time magazine. THAT marks the peak. Gold was there in late 1979, stocks were there in late 1999, and real estate was there in June 2005. Use the Time magazine cover story indicator to tell you when to bail out of something. It never fails.
Gold is highly volatile, and always will be, but hasn't made the cover of Time since its last bubble in 1979, so it still has plenty of upside left. There are many factors that determine the price of gold, and it is wise to recognize them all, and not just the geopolitical tensions that are always present.
Thanks for the Time mag tip, I'll go with that. Hey if I loose I still have the shiny stuff!
austinyankee-
I'm with you. I currently have 75% in physical silver and 5% in physical gold. I'm cutting expenses, and putting all new savings- 40% of take home pay- into silver. I still feel like it is not enough and I wish that I was further along in my career at this point in history (I'm only 1 year out of college).
p.s. I puke at my investment options in my 401(k) (small cap, large cap, bond funds of Mortgage Backed Securities for G-d's sake!!!)
AustinYankee
I was told that theey are reportable when sold under the Patriot Act.
Did you read Syria is switching from USD to EUR? This made me pull the trigger on Euros this morning.
http://tinyurl.com/9k7mt
Hey guys,
APMEX has good prices, but I recommend local coin shops, all cash transactions, all less than $10,000 (yes this involves a lot of $100 bills). Dress nicely, be friendly, don't go when they're busy. Rotate stores. This should avoid reporting issues.
Also- store it yourself, don't tell ANYONE about it- no banks, vaults, custodians, pool accounts, etc.
Ok- It sounds nutty, but it doesn't hurt to be a little careful- it's not that much work. You'll sleep well at night.
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