February 18, 2006

Follow the vacancies... Good God, this is such obvious stuff


Rental Vacancies peaked at 8.1% in Q3 1987. Homeowner Vacancies peaked at 1.9% in Q3 1989. There was a huge stock market crash in 1987 but the economy didn't slow dramatically until the 1990 to 1992 period when the housing market slowed nationally.

Fast forward to the present situation. Rental Vacancies peaked at 10.4% in Q1 2004. Homeowner Vacancies set a record high of 2.0% in Q4 2005.There are many reasons to fear an even greater economic slowdown starting in 2006 based on a more dramatic rise in home prices and extreme private and national debt levels.

Vacancy data can be found here.

From Q4 2004 to Q5 2004 the number of vacant homes increased by 427,000, with vacant for sale up 191,000 and seasonal vacancies up 245,000.

With speculation by property flippers, vacation home buyers, and retirement home buyers driving demand for new homes, it is not surprising that the nation produced far more homes than were needed for habitation in 2005. All this is leading to a supply glut that finally is impacting prices. Median prices for new home sales were down 8.39% from September to December

It isn't surprising that if you build a house where there is already overcapacity you might have a hard time selling it.

NAR estimated inventory of 2,796,000 existing homes for sale, or a 5.1-month supply in December, which is up by 582,000 (26.3%) year over year. Distressed borrowers will have a very hard time unloading their homes in a hurry if they decide they can no longer afford high mortgage payments.

141 comments:

buy_lo said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
buy_lo said...

why are you so concerned with savings rate? reading your prior postings, you put a lot of weight on its overall value as an economic metric. I think you are misled. A negative savings rate isnt a bad indicator on its own. You need to factor in other variables. Persons wealth is not all derived from a paycheck. Other revenue sources can and do affect spending patterns. You mentioned 1932 and 1933 as only two other periods when the savings rate was negative. This was during the great depression, not prior to it. Negative savings was a result of economic stress and hardship, not the leading indicator of an impending fiscal disaster.

Today, many more people have investment ownership, disproportionately higher than earlier periods. Your overall wealth and propensity to spend is driven by these factors as well. Payrolls and hourly wages have been relatively stagnant in the prior three years. However, real estate, credit and equity markets have shown above normal gains.

So, my point is that if you happen to spend as per your normal spending habits plus a percent of what you made from other sources of income, and your paycheck isnt larger, your personal savings rate will be negative. But, economically speaking, you are not worse off.

Bake McBride said...

Merrill Lynch's North American chief economist, estimates that approximately $2.5 trillion dollars of adjustable-rate household debt will re-price in 2006. That works out to 23 percent of total household debt. At the same time, income growth is trending lower, Kasriel says. Put the two together, and you will end up with Americans paying an even bigger chunk of after-tax income to debt service.

Anonymous said...

it is good to see articles and comments about housing again.......it seems the blog author was getting off topic the past few weeks

BigDaddy63 said...

Buy_lo,

Answer me this- with the TRILLIONS of dollars that have been extracted by HELOC's, with the lowest interest rates in 50 years, with the largest housing bubble in our lifetime, and with the Fed pumping more money in the system EVER- WHY is the savings rate NEGATIVE?

How did we as a nation manage to save 5-6% when rated were double digits and the only mortgages wher conventional 30 year?

You are missing the point. People have spent some 60-75% of their "equity" by using their houses as ATM's. There IS NO savings period. There should be a huge savings rate from the cash people pulled out as the values exploded, but it is allspent.

WAit until the 2.5 trillion resets this and next year

Metroplexual said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Metroplexual said...

I don't want to sound like a member of the tinfoil hat crowd but the table title mentioned below is gone. Other RE sensitive data seems to be getting pulled off of sites.

Table 11. Percent Distribution by Type of Unit by Region

Anonymous said...

bUY LO

wHAT A BUNCH OF CRAP!

buy_lo said...

bigd,

//WHY is the savings rate NEGATIVE?
i dont think you understand what the savings rate is. it doesnt factor in home equity withdrawals. savings rate is income vs expenditures.

// How did we as a nation manage to save 5-6% when rated were double digits and the only mortgages wher conventional 30 year?

again, savings rate is not related to mortgages or equity loans..i assume you understand that people have a propensity to save when rates are high...

//You are missing the point....

Let me explain why the fed isnt worried. Prior to the run up in housing prices, on aggregate, the real estate market had approximately 50-60% of equity (1 - all mortgagage debt/us real estate value). I may be off a bit on the number, but its roughly around the area. While prices increased over the past three years, people (as you mentioned) extracted equity from their homes. Now, Greenspan (and I assume Bernanke as well) feel that the amount of equity withdrawal is a number less than 100% of the overall increase in real estate. So, modelling a 20% correction, (worst case scenario) there will still be a significant amount of equity built up from the recent real estate boom.

Metroplexual said...

Buy Lo,

PMI estimates over valu of around 40% in bubble areas which is over 40 % of the country. Dallas which is not bubble territory is imploding with foreclosures among other places like tennesee.

I say they (FMOC) have been reading some bad tealeaves.

Anonymous said...

Dont forget the "sheep factor" People like sheep travel and invest in herds. Anyone with ling term observation can see that people buy when they should be selling, sell when they should be buying, and spend when they should be saving.

BigDaddy63 said...

Buy_ lo,

Please don't lecture me. I fully understand economics. You failed to answer my question. We have had record extractions in HELOC's. The Savings rate is negative. Where did all of the money go to? Surely consumers did not spend all of that money. My point is that in decades past, people manages to save MORE as a percentage. We did not have thse exotic finacing schemes.We did not have the deficit at 7% of GDP. We did not have 50 year low interest rates.

I know what the definition of savings is and that is what scares me. we have extracted TRILLIONS of equity over the past 5 years and spent it all. What is going to happen when the value of houses declines? This is exactly like having a margin account and be fully leveraged. There is no room for a loss here.

Watch this year when the trillions in resets starts. Then come back and try and tell us that about all of that "equity" not reflected insavings.

buy_lo said...

check out this survey:

http://FreeOnlineSurveys.com/rendersurvey.asp?sid=70ktgudrwurv4z8168740

Anonymous said...

I conducted my own survey with actual people instead of internet @hole$ trying to get my email address.
//People that bought their home B4 the boom dont care.
//People have saved.
//People have refied to get a lower payment.
//There is a $hitload of cash in the economy from RE.
//The educated posters have moved to other blogs

Anonymous said...

Buy lo
go fuck yourself you troll
Buy another house in SD or Phoenix.

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Potential buyers have to say "yes" many times to purchase your home ... but a single "no" over a seemingly minor item can kill the deal. You can do something about this.

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You can do a lot to For example, curb appeal sells: do some landscaping. Plant some flowers. Remember that the front door greets buyers. Make sure it offers potential a bright, warm welcome.

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Hint #6 for . Clutter will clog a sale: Display the full value of your space by removing all unnecessary articles. Consider storing things you don't need all the time.

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Hint #4 for . Fix That Faucet! Dripping water suggests faulty plumbing, one of the greatest fears that savvy buyers have.

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Anonymous said...

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Anonymous said...

Hint #3 for . Let The Sun Shine In: Open draperies and curtains and let the prospect see how cheerful your home can be. Dark rooms do not appeal. One trick which always seems to work is to replace 60-watt bulbs with 100-watt bulbs, and have your Realtor� turn them all on, even for a daytime showing (and off again after the showing).

Anonymous said...

watch "absorption rates" closely. It's a time-tested yardstick for home sales. Does it prove that the Housing Bubble has already popped? You bet it has.

Anonymous said...

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Hint #13 for . Three is A Crowd: Avoid having too many people present during a showing. Potential buyers need to feel at home, not like intruders being hurried through the house.

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