January 16, 2006

Wonk Alert: The housing bubble will probably burst.


What's happening is actually a very sad thing for America, and the world. Lives will be ruined, economies will be devastated. And why? One word - greed. But the market has it's own way of flushing out destructive behavior - if it didn't it'd be irrational. But it truly is rational, and periods of irrationality are met with periods of rationality.

Makes me wonder - who will be the winners (are there any) during this bust? And who will be the biggest losers?

Here's the article - very good read:

The 20% or greater fall in average median prices on a national basis we foresee is decidedly nonconsensus. And it will have substantial effects at home and abroad. Indeed, even a flattening of house prices will be meaningful.

Furthermore, those many who recently bought second homes and homes for investment (Chart 25) will get quite nervous if house prices stop rising. They've flooded the market with rentals, depressing rents (Chart 26), so even with interest only mortgages, many have negative carrying costs with taxes, interest, maintenance and other costs exceeding rental income. Once their confidence in rapid appreciation fades, their zeal to dump their properties onto the market leaps.

50 comments:

Stressed_renter said...

People lost touch with reality, chasing a dream of a quick buck. Why not join the party, he bough a year ago and he cashed out a 100k profit. I can't wait on the side lines and lose my chance of making a quick buck forever.
I predict many people will jump in the real estate in 2006, I can already see it. My brother was waiting last year, he lost patience and decided to buy a 365K house in Arizona. I told him get out but he didn't listen, he doesn't want to lose 7k down he put. My wife's only friend that hasn't purchased yet is buying a 390K even though her husband only work as a cashier. I am not sure how he even qualified for a loan. I see lots of people around me making the jump.

I believe that the party is not over yet. Insanity is at high gear and people are joining the party left and right. I am not sure if I am sane or I am insane. I spend lots of hours browsing the blogs and dumping my frustration in posts but I think I am getting depressed. I am trying to crunch numbers to see if I can make it too. Maybe I am wrong. However, every time I crunch the number I realize that I would be committing financial suicide if I jump into the market at those prices.

I am sane or insane, I am begining to doubt myself.

277.18 Hz said...

>> he doesn't want to lose 7k down

Typical. That number will grow and grow until he finally capitulates.

It's a long way down.

Grinch34 said...

Stressed Renter, be patient. A lot of people are not jumping into the real estate market this year (look at the inventory). I read that the medium house in the Phoenix area is 240,000. A few month ago the median house in the Phoenix area was 260,000. That already is a 20,000 drop and we are just getting started.

stressed_renter said...

I tried to advise my brother to pull out, he called me stupid. I don't have a crystal ball he said. I told hime Phoenix listings jumped 3 folds from July, he still is in denial. I finally had to let him sleep free of worries and congratulated him on his purchase. I don't have a crystal ball, I wish I did.

stressed_renter said...

Thanks Grinch, I am being patient. I appreciate your response. I can't jump in now, the risk way outweights the benefits. Median house income in many states like (CA, AZ) doesn't support the average house price. Lots of people are getting in over their heads.

Arioch said...

Stressed Renter:

Wait till late 2007 when the lions share of ARM's start adjusting.

You will see a bloodbath, and it will be in your favor. Till then, put the pennies in the piggybank and get ready for the adjustment to reality.

You are doing the right thing.

Anonymous said...

stressed_renter,

I posted something similiar earlier. I feel your pain. I can't make the numbers work either and yet everyone is doing it.

The worst part is the look from friends and family, who have made a killing on paper, look at you and say things like "You should just buy before it's too late" and "There is house for sale in my neighborhood, it's ONLY 645K which is a great price!". As if when they bought their homes just a few years ago they would have paid that.

It absolutely blows me away that they think I should pay almost 3 times what they paid for the same damn house, and that's ok, nothing out of the ordinary. Gee, who do you think winner is with that scenario. The moron who pays 645K or the one who paid 265k. Who will enjoy their retirement and who will be working until their dead.

But based on the past I guess it is possible that it could double again in 4 years and be worth 1.3 million. But maybe its just me but I don't think a 2 bedroom 1 bth 45 yr old home in a good but not stellar location will be all that appealing to Mr and Mrs. Howell when that get off that island. But I've been wrong before.

Stressed_Renter said...

Hello, Anon,
>>> But based on the past I guess it is possible that it could double again in 4 years and be worth 1.3 million.

I surely hope not, I believe the main reason things have doubled is loose mortgage lending standards, once this cover is blown. I don't believe average Joe with minimum wage income can claim stated income and shove himself into a house he can't afford. I firmly believe that we're going that existing lending practices (invented last couple of years), will fail apart. Then things are going to be back to a leveled playing field.

But again, I wish I had that crystal ball ;)

Metroplexual said...

Stressed_renter said.

I am not sure how he even qualified for a loan. I see lots of people around me making the jump.

Just go to this blog and read the archives. He describes in detail what people are borrowing and what they make. As he says they are FB's.

http://anotherfuckedborrower.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

There’s a common mantra coming from many on Wall Street … “soft landing”.

Anyone without an axe to grind and a macro economics course (101b) under their belt can see what has become quite obvious -- there in not going to be a “soft landing”,

Mamabeek said...

"However, every time I crunch the number I realize that I would be committing financial suicide if I jump into the market at those prices. "

There you have your answer...how you feel about it doesn't matter at all. I've done the same calculation, and no matter what the market does, I simply cannot afford a house now. Even with exotic finanacing, I would be a slave to a house that I wouldn't be happy in...and I make about double the median salary in my area.

I sure hope this crashes, and it sure looks like it will, but it's impossible to predict the future. However, I am not basing my decision on the future...I'm basing it on the present, and what I know...and I know that I cannot afford a house now.

Anonymous said...

Hey Stressed_renter;stick to your guns. I'm one of those people who bought a cookie cutter house in San Diego County (Oceanside) in 1999 for well under 200K to live in then watching my house triple I finally decided to move and sold for 500K summer of 2005. I left CA moved to OR. I keep warning others to not jump in. I took the money and ran because it's unreal for the houses to go up that fast without them crashing back down once most people are priced out of the market.The affordability rate in the state of CA is 5% on median priced home.
Now at least San Diego is appealling with perfect weather beaches, JOBS etc. Phoenix is an inferno with urban sprawl everywhere.Soon there will be homes going for rock bottom prices in all of the inflated bubble areas, especially Phoenix.
It never pays off to jump into a frenzied investment at the peak you will only lose big time.

Stressed_Renter said...

Thanks everyone for the response. I am just batteling a case of self guilt, maybe I am doing something wrong. It certainly looks like many people are getting in over their heads. They are making those loan officers and lenders rich for the moment. Wait until sh*t hits the fan, there will lots of grief out there.
I will just keep paying off my cars and work towards being 0 debt, then I can make a good decision once I am debt free. Screw this leverage mentality all around us, they are auctioning their future to their lenders. When prices fall they will be traped in their own walls, while we go shopping for a bargain. I am positive this is the outcome.
Thanks everyone.

Anonymous said...

But the market has it's own way of flushing out destructive behavior - if it didn't it'd be irrational.

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

- John Maynard Keynes

Anonymous said...

I am not sure how he even qualified for a loan.

Mortage banks are pushing no-doc applications. I was astonished to see them not only not care that "stated income" was pulled from thin air, but actually encourage the practice!

Are they expecting an eventual government bailout? Or are they as wildly optimistic as their borrowers?

Anonymous said...

Stressed_Renter.....
As far as how they got the loan. Hec, anyone can get a loan nowadays. The question is..can you afford that loan? 9 out of 10 the answer is no but that sleazeball loan officer doesnt give a damn.

Think of this madness as one giant Pyramid Scam (analogy). Who makes the $$ in those scams? The people who start it off. The people who get in towards the end almost always lose their money. Making money in real eastate is all about timing. Also..like the old saying goes "if its too good to be true it probably is"
I know how you feel. Even though I am a current homeowner, I fight with sporadic insane thoughts of selling my house and upgrading to a bigger house . A pool? Maybe get an I/O loan. But then reality sets in and I tell myself, wait, I need to live within my means and have a balanced life. I wamt to not just have a house but have nice clothers, take my family on vacation, send the kids to college, put away for retirement. Theres another saying..'House rich and cash poor'. And that one applies to a lot of these saps that just got into a 600k home with an I/O, ARM, negative amortization loan.... Dont worry to much about what idiots are doing around you. You focus, pay off debt and save save save for the bargains coming your way. I feel you brother.

Stressed_Renter said...

Anon 1:19

Thanks, how can they do it though, it's killing me to just think about it. If someone makes $2000 / month how can they spent $4000 a month. This is not sustainable. They will buy today and be forced to sell tomorrow. What about real estate fees to sell, house maintenance, all those expenses associated with a house. Some people are really dumb.

Anonymous said...

If someone makes $2000 / month how can they spent $4000 a month.

Simple. Just emulate our "president", and borrow, borrow, BORROW!

Joey said...

But the market has it's own way of flushing out destructive behavior - if it didn't it'd be irrational.

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

- John Maynard Keynes

The correct term is FLESHING, not FLUSHING like a toilet

Anonymous said...

Don't worry stressed_renter, their time of reckoning will come. I don't understand how people do it either (and are able to sleep at night!). I owe about $70k on my house, and I can't imagine being in more debt. I know some of my neighbors only put down 20-25k on their 600k-700k homes, and it boggles the mind. I can't imagine what their monthly cashflow must look like.

As for me, I sometimes wish I had stayed in my old house. It was only 2000sf, but it was paid for and fully landscaped/upgraded. I usually buy things with cash instead of debt, but I got slightly caught up in the real estate craze and felt I needed to move up before the prices spiraled out of control.

So now I have a bigger place (~3500sf), but owe money to the bank, and will wait to save $$$ to do the landscaping, finish the window treatments, put in the entertainment center, etc., because I don't want to be in further debt. I pull in 6 figures, have no other debt, and have stocked about 200k in my retirement savings (I'm in my 30s), but I feel like I took a step back because I am no longer debt free, and I don't have a fully furnished & landscaped house.

Save your money, and jump in the market when you're ready, not before. Good luck.

Wes D said...

Stressed_Renter:

I'm in the same boat as you with one exception. I am living 1500 miles away from my home and working and going to school (getting a PhD in Economics). I don't want to buy a house where I'm living now, which is one of the most bubblicious markets according to CNN Money. Therefore I let the many comments from friends and ignorant well wishers such as "You're stupid to rent", "buy now or be permanantly banished to a RV", and "real estate never declines" slide right off my back.

The beauty of the beast is that I get to see and study what is happening in the market which should dovetail with my dissertation. I have to write a paper this semester about the current economic conditions and what the fed should do and why. Should be a great assignment and hopefully I won't piss my professor off by suggesting the fed continue to raise rates until the market chokes.

Anonymous said...

Stressed_renter:

A year ago, I was mentally where you are at now. Frustrated to the max with this housing situation especially living in San Diego where your self worth is how much you have. Mostly my parents were harping on me to buy buy buy probably because it was a measure of how good a parent they were if they're kids had a bunch of "things". It takes a lot of soul searching to do what you know and feel is right instead of jumping in with the herd. You already stated that you know it's not worth buying, renting is the best option for most right now. I'm able to rent a nice place and save a ton on the side for that rainy day. You have to do what's in your best interest, not what others perceive you should be doing. They're day of reckoning will come. The only thing you can't get out of a rental that you can out of a house is being able to paint the walls. Imagine being strapped to a financial windfall and having to owe taxes or maintain a place that may need plumbing, a new roof, garage door, etc. Best wishes!

Anonymous said...

It IS possible to lose money in real estate. I've done it.

I bought a San Diego fixer-upper 25 years ago. Fixed it up, then watched interest rates go through the roof. No buyers, my construction loan came due, and I had to refinance at 15.5%!!

Montly payments were more than double what rent was bringing in.

Will it happen again?

Stressed_Renter said...

The way things are is people get into further debt to keep up with everyone else's standard of living. In their quest to do that they abandon all logic and accumulate debt. While accumulating debt they become under the mercy of lenders and creditors. It's an endless game. I learned my lesson. Screw what everybody else thinks all I care about is being able to sleep at night with peace. Having a $3000 payment for a home would definetely take this away from me. I need to care less about what everybody else is doing, I have to feel good about my own decisions.

Anonymous said...

I am with you man. I just can't get myself to pay the prices they ask, to owe $3000/month for the next 30 yrs.
I know the prices will come down. So I save my money and wait for the right opportunity. I am not willing to pay much higher than my current savings rate!
My only fear is that they will introduce 40-50 yr morgages and then we will be off to the races again...

Start said...

Hi blogger:)

Very interesting!I like to read your blog cause there is always something new to discover.

Regards,
make money online

amortization scedule said...

Hi Fellow! I was just searching blogs,and I found yours! I like it!
If you have a moment, please visit my amortization scedule site.
Good luck!

amortization scedule said...

Hi Fellow! I was just searching blogs,and I found yours! I like it!
If you have a moment, please visit my amortization scedule site.
Good luck!

amortization schedule calculation said...

Hey, you have a great blog here! I'm definitely going to bookmark you!
I have a amortization schedule calculation site.
Come and check it out if you get time :-)
Greetings.

arkansas scholarships said...

I was searching blogs,and I found yours.Please,
accept my congratulations for your excellent work!
If you have a moment, please visit my arkansas scholarships site.
Have a good day!

arkansas scholarships said...

Hello Friend! I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with
the information you have posted here.
Keep up the great work, you are providing a great resource on the Internet here!
If you have a moment, please make a visit to my arkansas scholarships site.
Good luck in your endeavors!

arkansas bad credit loan personal said...

I was searching blogs,and I found yours.Please,
accept my congratulations for your excellent work!
If you have a moment, please visit my arkansas bad credit loan personal site.
Have a good day!

arm mortgage rates said...

Hi Fellow! I was just searching blogs,and I found yours! I like it!
If you have a moment, please visit my arm mortgage rates site.
Good luck!

arm mortgage rates said...

Hi Fellow! I was just searching blogs,and I found yours! I like it!
If you have a moment, please visit my arm mortgage rates site.
Good luck!

arm mortgage rates said...

Hi Fellow! I was just searching blogs,and I found yours! I like it!
If you have a moment, please visit my arm mortgage rates site.
Good luck!

arm mortgage rates said...

Hi Fellow! I was just searching blogs,and I found yours! I like it!
If you have a moment, please visit my arm mortgage rates site.
Good luck!

bad credit interest mortgage rate said...

A fantastic blog yours. Keep it up.
If you have a moment, please visit my bad credit interest mortgage rate site.
I send you warm regards and wish you continued success.

bad credit interest mortgage rate said...

A fantastic blog yours. Keep it up.
If you have a moment, please visit my bad credit interest mortgage rate site.
I send you warm regards and wish you continued success.

bad credit mortgage in florida said...

Hi Blogger, I found your blog quite informative.
I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with it.
I give you my best wishes for your future endeavors.
If you have a moment, please visit my bad credit mortgage in florida site.
Have a great week!

Paul Adams said...

A fantastic blog yours. Keep it up.
If you have a moment, please visit my bad credit mortgage loan lenders site.
I send you warm regards and wish you continued success.

Paul Adams said...

Your blog I found to be very interesting!
I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with
the information you have posted here.
I have a bad credit mortgage loan uk
site.
Come and check it out if you get time :-)
Best regards!

Paul Adams said...

Your blog I found to be very interesting!
I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with
the information you have posted here.
I have a bad credit mortgage re scotland
site.
Come and check it out if you get time :-)
Best regards!

Paul Adams said...

Your blog I found to be very interesting!
I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with
the information you have posted here.
I have a bad credit mortgage re scotland
site.
Come and check it out if you get time :-)
Best regards!

James Baker said...

This is an excellent blog. Keep it going.You are providing
a great resource on the Internet here!
If you have a moment, please take a look at my bad credit mortgage re scotland site.
Have a great week!

James Baker said...

This is an excellent blog. Keep it going.You are providing
a great resource on the Internet here!
If you have a moment, please take a look at my bad credit mortgage re scotland site.
Have a great week!

Bill Harrison said...

Hello Friend! I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with
the information you have posted here.
Keep up the great work, you are providing a great resource on the Internet here!
If you have a moment, please make a visit to my cash loans site.
Good luck in your endeavors!

Jane Carpenter said...

Hey Fellow, you have a top-notch blog here!
If you have a moment, please have a look at my mortgage Arkansas site.
Good luck!

Scott Arthur Edwards said...

Here it is... FREE advertising, FREE download. No cost to you! Get your FREE download NOW! Make money and get FREE advertising! This is a great program for you to take advantage of... Check this out now for FREE!

To find out more visit: financial freedom site. It successfully exposes FREE information covering traffic and financial freedom related stuff. Don't forget, FREE, FREE, FREE!!!

real estate note buyer said...

Interesting blog about notes.

Sincerely,

DialNoteFinder
real estate note buyer
http://www.DialNoteFinder.com

Meg Taylor said...

Hey Fellow, you have a top-notch blog here!
If you have a moment, please have a look at my loans site Arkansas site.
Good luck!