January 09, 2006

Trouble with Condos from Washington, DC: Area Condo Sales Cooling After Record-Setting Year


Few interesting tidbits from bubble market DC

* Already oversupplied condo market about to have 50,000 more units dumped on market in the next 36 months
* Developers rushing to completion because they have to financially
* 500% more condo units for sale today than 12 months ago (wow!)
* Investors pulling out, canceling units and deposits for fear they won't be able to break even


I'm reminded of the "Trouble with Tribbles" Star Trek episode here - condos multiplying like Tribbles and nobody can stop 'em. (No, not ST geek, but a great episode for sure). Here's highlights:


That's a big change from when there were only a handful of properties available and buyers had to snap them up with little time for reflection, she said

About 51,400 units were being planned or marketed for delivery within the next three years, Delta Associates found, up from 39,000 three months earlier. It appears some builders are proceeding with projects they have spent years developing, even as the supply of new units rises, in hopes their projects will be more successful than the competition

Leisch said many condo developers are proceeding because they must financially. "They paid so much for the land, and they are so far down the development timetable, they are so far committed, that, practically speaking, they can't stop," he said.

"I think without question the condo market will continue to soften," said Kenneth Wenhold, Virginia and Maryland director for MetroStudy, a Houston-based real estate research firm that specializes in the new-home market. Wenhold said there are five times as many condo units for sale as there were a year ago.

When the condo market was at its peak a year or so ago, investors flocked to buy units before construction with the intention of flipping them for a profit. Wenhold said he has heard that some of those investors are deciding not to go through with their purchases, giving up their down payments, to avoid being left holding units they cannot sell.

"Contracts are falling through because people are walking away from the closing table,"

26 comments:

Renter_Panic said...

As of today, the 11/23/05 Housing Panic Index of stocks (short: FNM, TOL, TGIC, SPF, long: COP, and 5k in cash at 4%) is down $269.63, (annualized rate of return is -18%).

Go Dow 11,000!!!

keith said...

renter panic - good luck with your daytrading and short term view of the world. please make sure you visit us later this year

Renter_Panic said...

Keith_B -

Thanks for your concern. Don't worry....I am not a day-trader, nor do I have a short term view of the world. Rather I am a long-term investor who measure results in decades (rather than years). I invest in broad-based indexes (SPY, DIA, etc) as well as real-estate (have owned my primary home for 12 years, and my two rental homes for 7 years each).

I just find it amusing that your stock picks are so horrible. You should just stick to posting very informative articles regarding a possible housing bubble, and leave the stock-picking to someone else.

I'l be sure to visit this blog later this year (if it is still around).

keith said...

a good buy and hold trader would understand that a few weeks performance is meaningless - as are day to day moves.

If you don't believe oil stocks will go up (they will) then you don't buy into the peak oil argument, and the geopolitical events that will cause resources to be scarce (and expensive)

If you don't believe there is a bubble, then you should be buying up homebuilder stocks. I know there is a bubble, and I know the builders will be in significant trouble down the road.

And if you don't believe Fannie will be a completely different company two years from now, and that there is no issue with their portfolio or practices, then buy some FNM.

At the end of the day, if you want stock picks, go to a stock picking site. It's definitely not my speciality.

And that's why I'm 90% in cash.

Moman said...

A friend of mine worked at Freddie Mac for a while (Fannie Mae sister). He said it was such a buereaucratic nightmare it's amazing anybody did anything.

Renter_Panic - you seem to measure results in weeks. Keith does a good job posting interesting articles.

000000000000000000000000000000000000 said...

renter panic.
I do like your thinking to a point. In the 91 crash when I lost all my real estate the Dow did very well.
I am afraid of real estate stocks. I am also afraid of things people will not be buying when money is tight and government spending backs off to ballance the budget. I figure housing stocks could do OK till 08 but personally have my money where my mouth is. I like this blog because people voice their opinions. Anyone can get the news. Supply and demand will ultimately be driven by perception of the market.
Thank You Kieth. I have a debit of gratitude for the time you spend on this. My hat is off to you!

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Investor said...

The Housing Bubble has popped in Florida. What does it mean for Windwood investment? Either prices plummet and buyers rush in, or sellers take their homes off the market, or it's going to take a lot longer to sell a home. Read more ....

seller said...

Has the Housing Bubble popped? Boca Raton says "Yes!" A typical subdivision -- the Boca Country Club -- characterizes the area, and the problem. Read more ....

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