June 13, 2005 signaled (in my book) the peak, when Time ran this now infamous cover story on going gaga for housing.
So... every action has a reaction. When will the Time cover be on the housing meltdown (and panic)?
I predict, weirdly, beautifully, June 13, 2006.
Oh, what a difference a year makes
The headline? "Bubble Trouble - Housing Hits the Skids"
Then a bunch of articles on people who can't afford their Option ARMs, people walking away from houses, a couple who lost $100,000 in 6 months, the 21 year old speculator, mortgage brokers shutting down, realtors with no income, Greenspan's role, the Bob Toll investigation, the rumored congressional hearings, and the shocking percent change by market in prices and listings - with Vegas, Phoenix, Miami, Boston, Naples, San Diego and Marin County leading the way down.
January 05, 2006
Question for readers: Predict what month the imploding housing bubble makes the cover of Time Magazine (and what's the headline)?
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26 comments:
It always takes longer than we think.
Summer 2005? That was at least 2 years late after the frenzy had started.
The cover story will come when there is a good human interest story about those who were screwed.
Let's see--a sympathetic but not too bright person deep underwater and newly unemployed, sold a crappy loan, by a slick mortgage lender (conveniently under indictment), exaggerating appraiser, a crappy property, rampaging property tax and insurance. And their kid just got pregnant and grandma has cancer.
That's 2008.
Bubble, Bubble, toil and trouble, sounds like a witch's brew! I wish people would get a grip and look at the fundamentals and value. I've commented in a lot of these blogs and asked who does the bubble relate to value, historic cost per sq ft, rental prices, how many homes even in bubble markets are "over-leveraged with mortgages" i.e people who maybe bought and unloaded all their profits from say CA into PHOENIX and so paid $500,000 but put down $200,000 and got a 3500 sq ft home with 3cg, 3bath, pool etc and how do you compare apples and oranges-value for say median price when you don't adjust for the average size of a home with that average sales price...1963 maybe a 1200 sq ft house and today 2100 sq ft house or more. This article at least tries to look at value, price, improvements, etc. Doesn't mean there are places that people pay too much and needs corrections but hey, it isn't tha Apocolypse! Read and think.
Economist's Corner: The Housing Bubble Myth
Issue: July 2005
By Carl Steidtmann, chief economist and director, Consumer Business, Deloitte Research
Everywhere you turn these days the buzz is about soaring real estate prices. If you are lucky enough to be a homeowner in one of the hot markets like South Florida or New York City, owning real estate is almost as good as winning the lottery. The increase in household wealth is seen by many analysts, who can’t stand the thought that someone somewhere might be doing well in this economy, as a sign of some future catastrophe to come. All the hype about a housing bubble is an excellent illustration of Benjamin Disraeli’s lament that there were ‘liars, damned liars and statisticians.’ While many of the housing price indexes that are published by both government and industry trade groups show prices spiraling higher, you really need to be a statistician to understand what they are saying.
When you strip away all of the white noise around a housing bubble, what you find is a robust market for housing that is undergoing several profound changes all of which manifest themselves in higher home price indexes, none of which adds up to a housing price bubble.
The Housing Bubble Illustrated
Exhibit A in the case for a housing bubble is the home price index put out by The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO). Published quarterly, this index shows housing prices soaring in 2004 and into 2005 as well. The rise in home prices is not quite as dramatic as the 1970s price increase, but then overall inflation in the late 1970s was much higher than it is now.
According to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight their Home Price Index (HPI) is:
a weighted repeat sales index, meaning that it measures average price changes in repeat sales or refinancings on the same properties. This information is obtained by reviewing repeat mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac since January 1975.
So if a brownstone in Harlem, New York sold for $25,000 in 1995 and the same property sold for $500,000 today that would represent an astounding level of price inflation over a 10 year period and certainly a sign of a housing bubble. The problem with this simple math is that it leaves out the qualitative changes that have taken place over the past 10 years both in the building itself and the neighborhood it is in.
Or take a condominium project in West Palm Beach Florida. Say a developer bought a rundown condominium project in 2003 for $250,000 a unit, knocks it down and replaces it with a new project where units are selling for $1,000,000 a piece today. While the OFHEO index does not cover multi-family dwellings, if it did, it would record this transaction as a big run up in home prices. But again, it fails to take into account the dramatic change in the quality of the dwelling that has taken place.
The Cohort Effect of the Baby Boom Generation
Everywhere the Boomers have gone, economic, political and social disruption has followed, and housing is no different. When the boomers were born, maternity wards were overwhelmed. When they went to school, there was a boom in school building that was not enough to keep a lot of public schools from going to a double session day. When the Boomers hit puberty we had a sexual revolution. At college age, they took to the streets in protest on a global level. Upon entering the workforce they produced record unemployment. When they first started buying houses in the late-1970s, housing prices soared. Even as we look ahead to their retirement, they will create a crisis in both private and public pensions. It should not be surprising that they are roiling the housing market.
As the children of the Boomers leave home, the housing needs of the Boomers are changing. They are moving back into the inner city to places like Harlem and at the same time buying second homes at record numbers. Both changes in housing demand are producing an upward movement in home price indexes. But do these changes really represent an increase in home prices that can be described as a bubble?
A financial bubble is first and foremost a monetary phenomenon. If you look at money growth in the US in the late-1920s or in the late-1990s you will see a sharp acceleration in the growth of the monetary aggregates. The same was true in Japan in the late-1980s during the Nikkei bubble. In the late-1990s, the Fed greatly expanded the amount of money in the banking system in part out of fear of Y2K related financial market disruptions. While those fears fortunately never came to pass, the money the Fed pumped into the banking system found its way to Wall Street where it sent internet related stocks soaring.
Since the breaking of the internet bubble in 2001-2002, liquidity has expanded at a much more moderate pace with current growth in the monetary base running at just above 4%, a fraction of the 1999 bubble inducing levels.
The psychology of market participants in a bubble is also different from normal times. As a bubble reaches its peak the market participants are in search of the greater fool. Buyers buy only in the expectation that there is a greater fool out there who will pay a higher price. Eventually the greater fool is found and the price falls. As the market searches for the greater fool, the rising price brings out extra and sometimes unexpected sources of supply. It is this combination of increased supply and narrowing demand that results in the breaking of a market bubble and a fairly rapid descent in price. While there is some anecdotal evidence of market speculation, most participants are buying houses because they still represent a very good long term value.
The Process of Gentrification
Thirty years ago there were brownstones in the Harlem section of Manhattan that the city government had condemned but could not give away. Slowly, urban pioneers moved in and began fixing up these classic old buildings. Crime fell. The drug pushers and the prostitutes were pushed out. More people moved in and a tipping point was hit. New businesses moved to the neighborhood. Retail and service related businesses began to flourish. Even a former President has set up offices now in Harlem. What was once a slum is now a gentrified neighborhood. The quality of the housing and the quality of the neighborhood have both improved dramatically. In so doing, the price of housing has soared.
On the surface all of this may look like a housing price bubble but the reality of what has happened is much different. What the rise in home prices is reflecting is a dramatic improvement in the quality of both the housing and the neighborhood. Given that different reality it should not come as a surprise that the biggest increases in home prices are taking place in places like Harlem New York and other east coast cities where the process of gentrification is dramatically improving the quality of both the housing stock and the old neighborhoods.
Boomers are not just moving back into inner cities, they are also buying second homes in record numbers. Many of those second homes are being purchased in anticipation of future retirement. While much of this activity has been characterized as housing speculation, what it really represents is a shift in the nature of demand for housing.
The front end of the Boomer generation turns 60 next year. The vast majority still have their 50’s ahead of them. The peak period for first time second home purchase is in ones early 50s. This demographic shift still has a long way to run as the back end of the Boomer generation will not turn 60 until 2024. Given this shift in housing demand, it should not be surprising that home prices are rising rapidly in traditional second home retirement markets like Florida and Arizona.
Breaking a Bubble
Financial bubbles come to a crashing end when the sky high prices lure a wave of supply onto the market that crushes demand. Were housing a bubble, the high price of existing housing should be fostering a boom in home building. While new housing starts have risen steadily over the past couple of years, when adjusted for population, new home building is no where near the heights of building activity set back in the 1970s.
One of the reasons for the modest rise in new home building activity is that the home construction business has changed dramatically over the past twenty years. Industry consolidation has left the business in the hands of large, well managed, professional home building firms. Fewer homes are now built on speculation then in the 1970s or 1980s as today’s builders work hard to match housing supply to demand. As a result, the boom and bust days of the industry are gone as housing construction has become much less cyclical.
Tax Changes
Gentrification is not the only change that is affecting the measurement of home prices. Tax changes over the past decade have dramatically improved the relative value of owning your home as opposed to renting it. Home ownership is still the best source of tax avoidance for the middle class. With both interest payments and property taxes deductible, the after tax cost of home ownership is reduced by anywhere from 15% to 35% of the home payment. The tax treatment of capital gains coming from the sale of a home has also been made more favorable. Once taxed as capital gains if not reinvested, gains
from a home sale are now tax free up to $500,000.
Affordability
And finally, as interest rates have come down, the affordability of home ownership has gone up. Asset prices are high, but the actual cash flow cost of housing is near record lows due to low interest rates. The share of an average American household income going to finance a new median priced house today is lower then it was at any time in the past two decades. Interest rates are going to have to rise more than a little to increase the cash flow cost of housing back to the levels seen in previous decades.
Conclusions
H.L Mencken once said that the definition of a Puritan was someone who hated the notion that somewhere someone might be having a good time. The same can be said of the economic Puritans of today who cloak their disdain for continuing prosperity in a search for some element of the current economy that is not perfect. Last year it was the lack of job growth. This year it is housing prices. Next year it will be something else.
The housing market has been one of the bulwarks of growth in the current recovery. The rise in home values has added dramatically to household wealth and given consumers a source of additional cash flow that has contributed to a robust consumer spending environment.
Eventually mortgage rates will rise and the housing market will cool. But don’t expect the calamity that many of the housing bubble heads are hoping for. Declines in housing prices do not bring down an economy. Housing prices can decline but such a decline usually is a reflection of a weak local economy. Home prices fell in Houston in the early 1980s when the oil industry collapsed, in Boston when the high tech industry stumbled in the late 1980s and in Los Angeles in the 1990s following a decline in the aerospace industry. In each case the decline had nothing to do with a previous housing bubble and everything to do with the local economy.
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Page Last Updated: July 8, 2005
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Foxwoodlief,
That is all well and good. But that assumes that all the people who are in these homes see the value. I can think of two scenarios that would unravel the whole thing.
1) Interest rates rising. As rates rise minimum payments go up thus reducing the amount the buyer can buy. I think this is only partly underway.
2) The flood of defaults set to happen when arms and Interest only loans reset in 2006 and 2007. Many can just barely make their payments now and this will just push them over the edge into default. There will be alot of properties available in 2008+.
BTW, I am not a puritan. I am only commenting on the excess of our time. in the blog AFB linked on the side there is an entry about the crazy excess consumption going on and the sense of entitlement that people have today. My concern is what the hangover is going to be like when this party ends. Just one final comment, real estate inflation really does not help anyone except the smarties that cashed out.
Everytime I see the name Foxwoodlief, It's a long winded Blah Blah Blah.
Ok so the reason the median house value has risen is because every location has become gentrified?
Come on! For every neighborhood being taken over by yuppies there is another neighborhood falling into urban decay.
The reason the median house value has risen is because people now have 2-car garages and 2nd and 3rd bathrooms?
Come on! The price of realestate is dictated by the 4-"L"s (location, location, location, location) None of those L's stand for "number of bathrooms" or "garage" that is not to say that the quality of the house doesent have a bearing on the price of the house, but it is still of little importance.
You want the truth? (can you handle the truth?) Handyman's specials, tearer-downers and vacant lots have all been skyrocketing. Oh but I guess an empty lot went up in value because it has ample parking.
No, June 2006 is way early, IMO. Those kinds of stories don't come out until the trend is so long in the tooth that it is invariably much closer to the end than even the middle:
Newsweek's infamous "Death of Equities" article (Aug 1979) was nearly five years into a wrenching bear market.
Business Week woke up and declared (possibly not for the first time, I'll allow) that "Gold Is Losing Its Glitter" on July 19, 1999, within one month from the bottom of a twenty-year bear market.
(more examples here -- "Cover stories about the stock market tend to occur at points near maximum momentum on the upside or the downside.")
Even late, overextended buyers in the housing bubble will barely be starting to get uncomfortable by June 2006. We talk about 2007 all the time as when $1.2T of poisoned mortgages adjust out of range of the FB's, then it's another let's say six months for foreclosures to really jump, another year before everybody knows somebody who's gone through the process, and then another couple of months for the big magazines to decide it has mass market appeal. I'm with the earlier post -- June 2008, after the "third disastrous spring selling season in a row" makes people start to wonder if the world has changed forever.
And that's assuming no FOMC tricks to hyperinflate the federal defecit (which helps all debtors) back to health!
you guys did a good job convincing me - it'll be later than june 2006, simply because they'll report it later than the should have - after it's so glaringly obvious, the new trend has started (buy buy buy)
So, allow me to adjust. I'll go half way. June 2007!
Titles cont'd
Bubble Trouble (been used already)
House Roust
Home Sour Home
Debtor's Prison (new BKY Law)
"BANK" ruptcie$
When the Party's Over
May 2007. After the second spring of lackluster sales in a row and 18 months into less than 1% price appreciation, it will be like waking up after a nuclear dawn. We'll all (even those who predict calamity) be shocked at how deep the damage will run.
FOXWOODLIEF(NO RELIEF) -
****One of the reasons for the modest rise in new home building activity is that the home construction business has changed dramatically over the past twenty years. Industry consolidation has left the business in the hands of large, well managed, professional home building firms. Fewer homes are now built on speculation then in the 1970s or 1980s as today’s builders work hard to match housing supply to demand. As a result, the boom and bust days of the industry are gone as housing construction has become much less cyclical******
TRUE: Homes are more concentrated in the hands of large builders.
CONSEQUENCE: Too many homes are built like cheap cardboard boxes and could be blown down with a Superbowl party full of men, chips, chili, and lots of farts.
TRUE: Large homebuilders can leverage economies of scale..
THEN WHY aren't home prices going down? Aside from labor, homes cost less today than they have in the past. Mechanized construction techniques and laminate construction with vinyl siding instead of doing everything by hand and using hardwood/aluminum. Dr. Robert Shiller (Irrational Exuberance) makes a good point regarding this in his book. The total cost to build a house has fallen while prices continue to rise.
FALSE: Homebuilding boom/bust cycles are a thing of the past
What a crock of bull. The past 7 years have been an abberation. Now that the majority of homes are built by a few public companies, in the face of a slowdown you just can't expect Pulte, MI Homes, DR Horton, (insert shitty builder here) will suddenly stop building homes, letting their revenues go to hell while they are locked in on supplier contracts. NO WAY, they will keep building homes just like GM keeps building SUVs and reduce the price to sell them.
I think a lot of the bloggers here, esepecially those who use the name anonymous, are worse than fundamentalists. You all appear ignorant, unwilling to look at all the facts in a rational way and to seperate the wheat from the chaff. If you are going to be so "black and white" you might as well go live in Iran or the Vatican. You can't reason, you can't seperate value from over-inflated prices. And, apparently you'all must be shit poor.
Most of the people I work with, my friends, my relatives, don't fall in your idiot-bubble scenarios. I have one friend who doesn't own a home, she is single and makes over $80,000 a year and doesn't manage her money well. I've taken over her budget several times and put her well into the black and at least now she is saving and investing (no, not in real estate). Oh, and I guess if I count the house that is in trust to her from her grandmother and controled by her parent's, then even she owns a house.
Everyone in my immediate circle mentioned above are all debt free, live within their means, are all professionals and educated and are not "house poor". My largest debt (as I see it) is paying Uncle Sam taxes every year equal to most people's annual income.
There are people out there who are going to get hurt but they'd get hurt even if houses were "more affordable" or they made more money or....because they are idiots who can't budget and live beyond there means.
As I've instructed many people I work with in the medical field that what seperates a rich man from a poor man is a poor man spends more than he makes and a rich man saves more than he spends. Doctors I work with often have less in reall assets than the nurses I work with. Oh, and yes, most the nurses I work with earn $80-100,000 plus a year with their over time, bonuses etc and that doesn't count their husband's income. The rest of my friends also have military pensions that they collect and then have their current incomes and their spouses work and make more than those meaningless numbers about median household income etc.
If you only look at statistics and numbers you can imagine everyone is worse off than they really are.
I buy a house to live in and if I can make a return on the expense great, if not, great, it is my home. Location is important but not if I have to pay some ridiculous price to live in a dump. I've always taken value into account more than location alone.
I've lived all over the world and I can tell you that American home prices are not outrageous and that you get a lot more for your money than in any other industrial country.
If you all think prices are unsound go to Germany or Japan and buy a cracker box for what people in Phoenix are paying for a 3500 sq ft home with a pool and that afer their home prices have been flat or been reduced up to 60% in value since the 90s even now! N0, I think Phoenix is over valued and I am not willing to pay the price to live here any more but that doesn't mean someone else may find it to have value.
I'm just tired of reading WOE UNTO THEE blogs that don't put facts on the table, compare apples with apples, see "god's wrath and doom" in every home price or statistic, and think every American probaly lives on the edge like you envious, poor bloogers.
FOXWOODLIEF:
If we're all just a bunch of ignorant bloggers, don't you apply to the saying that "misery loves company"? Your posts highlight the most positive spin on the situation which is no worse that someone else's post which highlights the most negative spin.
***There are people out there who are going to get hurt but they'd get hurt even if houses were "more affordable" or they made more money or....because they are idiots who can't budget and live beyond there means.***
You are 100% correct with this. The whole issue that I take with this housing bubble thing is that people like me (and from what it sounds, you) who are trying to be responsible, live within our means and keep debt to a minimum are constantly subsidizing those who cannot pay bills, rack up bill after bill and mortgage after mortgage and walk away. Living in a free society does have costs associated with it, such a increased car insurance due to criminals stealing cars, but that doesn't mean that banks have to go gagga over leading money to people who are seriously living on the edge to further hang themselves.
Yeah yeah, so if BOA won't give you the loan then Small City bank will. That's why there should be federal regulations considering this scenario. Take for instance, the option mortgage. It's a great tool for someone with a couple hundred grand of liquid assets who wants to buy a house, minimize cash outflow, and convert to another loan in a year. It SHOULD NOT be used as a tool for a $30,000 yr retail clerk to buy a $350,000 house with some cockeyed dream that they will get on American Idol and be able to afford the payments in 3 years.
I've received a lot of bad advice from a few of my friends. One told me to buy the biggest, most expensive house I could qualify for and stretch for a few years because I'd soon grow into it. We all know what happened to the 90k/yr dot-commers who suddenly found themselves making 65k. I went almost 4 years without any real raise and stretching for that long would hurt. Another friend of mine is driving 1 hour each way to work so he can live in a 4-bedroom 'old-folks' neighborhood for him and his wife. We never go out to eat lunch anymore because I know he's barely making it by paying for the mortgage and a fancy SUV.
On the contrarian viewpoint, I think many people are worse off than the numbers suggest. Having $100,000 in paper wealth is nice, but it's not real money. Real money is liquid assets. A lot of dot-commers again lived the rich life on paper wealth and it all came crashing down. Using paper wealth is just like having a credit card; you are spending future income in the present. In both cases it's not cold, hard cash. I read another blog about a lady who lost $400,000 in stock value in 2000. She admitted they were living at a much higher level than income could support. Ouch, that has to hurt. It's also going on every day around the area I live in.
Houses that just 4 years ago commanded 175k are now selling for $350k. There is no precdent for this runup. It's not supported by fundamentls. Wages are barely keeping pace with inflation. Jobs are growing more plentiful. The only possible thing that can explain it is low interest rates and lax lending standards. My place is 8ft above sea level and about 1/2 from the bay. In any kind of minor hurricane we are all evacuated first and all these fancy homes will be washed away.
Can't you see the bait and switch tactics being used by the media? For months the NAR economist was saying there isn't a bubble. Now all the sudden we're in a soft landing. If there was no bubble in the first place, there wouldn't need to be a soft landing. Right? I can't help but think back to 1999 after reading multiple stories about how the stock market couldn't possibly be a bubble since we were in the new economy and anyone who thought different didn't 'get it'. Overnight the talk turned to a soft-landing for the economy and stock markets which turned into an all out bloodbath. Other utopian views have been sounding more and more desperate for good news. What about Toll Bros saying 2006 would be a down year? No one rings a bell at the top of a market. Toll did. Why? Who knows, but I suspect they just couldn't keep the horse in the barn any longer.
I have resigned to the conclusion that looking at logical facts and figures, we're in for a nasty surprise. I enjoy blogging and reading others' opinions, and I often find similar opinions to mine. Most of the times people with such an optimistic view (like you) are the ones who are going to be toast in the event of any bust. Kind of like the guy who thought everyone else was stupid because they didn't buy Yahoo at $300 a share, only trying to support his weak position that he bet his whole 401k on it and was desperately in denial.
foxwood - what part of the country are you in? sounds good - people living within their means, saving, not wildly speculating.
come here to arizona for 2 days. you'll see how different it can be.
foxwoodlief:
I have over $250K in liquid assets (most which was created from the housing boom). I helped cheerlead up the bubble and convinced people to get in (2004 and prior). I became completely cautious in 2005 and changed my position to 'hold' until late Q3 to early Q4 where I signaled 'sell'. I know that I'm not the only "smart money" that is out (even Robert Kiyosaki is mostly out).
I guess you could argue that I'm now cheerleading a bust, but I'm also putting my money where my mouth is (by betting against RE and USD). If I was poor, I would have nothing to lose. I don't think this is unAmerican as I'm trying to exploit the opportunity in front of me.
It sounds like you live in a nice place that is not considered a bubble area. Many of us bloggers are in or near bubble areas where we see lots of sketchy activity going down. Where motivation is based on speculation, the lending practices are very loose, and the marketing behind McMansions is rampant.
I rent a house now in a better neighborhood for a fraction of the ownership cost. I'm out of debt, living closer to work, and have a better life. Even my landlord thinks I'm very smart (he told my neighbor and then he told me). He has negative cash flow on this place even though he has had it for five years.
You probably missing this classic graph of US vs Japan housing bubble.
http://tinyurl.com/88lr3
I was thinking Foxwoodlief was a nurse, not a doctor.
Fox is a male- nurse. Even worse. Prob couldn't hack it in med school.
Boasting his illusion of prosperity all equity funded.
I keep hearing the negatives. The 4 areas i'm familiar with our still trending up. I don't need stats or realtor to tell me bubble or no bubble.
austin- up
socal-los angeles,oc,san fernando valley, ventura, santa clarita etc- all up
hawaii maui- up
salt lake city - up
All of these areas still are moving
up and plenty of buyers. no gloom and doom. alot of the socal areas have buyers with multiple families purchasing together and living together i've seen more and more of this the last 4 years.
2 or 3 years before we see any real drop in prices. The interest only holders will hold on for a while. Most of these loans we locked for 5 years starting back in 02,03,04, which means 07,08,09 due. I keep hearing rates are up, what rate, rates 30year and adjustables are real close to there lows but i keep hearing rates are up. Lastly i think the only issue is will foreigners keep buying our debt, thats the real question.
p.s.
I now live in maui in a rental house for 1700 monthly that would sell for 1.2mil , why would i buy
and pay a 6,000 dollar mort plus taxes, maintenance, etc.
Probably will live here 1 to 2 years. then move back to the mainland while prcies are falling.
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