January 15, 2006

Phoenix we have a problem - Listings soar past the 30,000 mark (up from 10,000)


These numbers are truly amazing. Up almost 1500 in 4 days. Up 200% in the past 6 months.

Meltdown Phoenix.

Here's how it goes down - listings explode, prices hold, sales dry up (no buyers), listings build, prices start to move down, listings build, prices move down faster, listings build (panic sets in), prices move down faster, and finally, we're back where we started.

Tracking Phoenix/Maricopa & Pinal Counties
Population 2005: 3.8 million
Listing per population ratio 7/20: 1:353
Listing per population ratio 11/10: 1:150

7/20: 10,748
7/30: 11,656
8/10: 13,099
8/30: 15,042
9/10: 16,716
9/30: 18,799
10/10: 20,073
11/10: 25,387
12/10: 27,649
12/30: 27,455
1/2: 26,715
1/10: 28,790
1/14: 30,279

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

unfreakinbelievable!

crisp&cole said...

What is the all time record # of inventory? This has to be it.

Dogcrap Green said...

housingpanic I'm gonna toss you a bone.

Based on the price that Toll Brothers paid for the over 5,000 acres of land. and based on the fact that they are re-leasing the land back to the previous owners, so there is no rush to turn it into cash.

Toll Brothers can sell 20,000 new houses for under $200,000 in the Phoenix market.

Current Score
Home builder - one
Home owners - zero

stressed_renter said...

Where are you getting those statistics from? I would like to see the numbers in Riverside / San Bernandino County, CA. Prices have skyrocketed, I would like to see the effect on inventories.

Anonymous said...

Just found this blog last week. I'm an Arizona native for 20+ years, and sold my first home (2000sf for 400k) after living there for 8 years, in late 2005. I moved into a new 3500sf house that I purchased in 2004 for under $500k, which was completed just before I sold the old house.

I feel like I really lucked out. The appreciation soared on my old and new homes during the past year and half, and I was able to cash out the equity in my old house before the market slowed down. I also bought the new place before the prices skyrocketed out of control, and I think I will be okay even if there is a big correction housing market.

I bought both of my homes to live in, and did not have the flipper/real estate investor mentality (i.e., I bought what I could easily afford and did not use creative financing to buy more than I am comfortable with). I think investors have really caused most of the problems wit the housing market, and unfortunately those that got caught up in it and didn't get out in time are going to have to pay.

I saw some of the 500k+ Toll Brothers homes in Aviano and other "upscale" communities, and I thought people were crazy to pay for what they were getting. I hope most of the buyers are buying those homes to live in, and not to flip for a quick profit, because I think they're in for a world of hurt otherwise.

My $0.02.

Anonymous said...

7/20/2005 10748
7/21/2005 10968
7/22/2005 11122
7/23/2005 11424
7/24/2005 11338
7/25/2005 11112
7/26/2005 11315
7/27/2005 11353
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8/1/2005 11599
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11/1/2005 23601
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11/10/2005 25387
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12/1/2005 26792
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12/3/2005 27238
12/4/2005 27295
12/5/2005 27356
12/6/2005 27387
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12/9/2005 27649
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12/26/2005 26810
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12/29/2005 26649
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1/1/2006 26462
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1/11/2006 29222
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1/13/2006 29689
1/14/2006 29899
1/15/2006 30415 9pm pacific

Anonymous said...

Aviano is overpriced tract home shit. the buyers there are on major drugs to pay over 500k for that crap, and the resales are at 800k+

Grinch34 said...

Expect the inventory numbers to go higher, especially if the Chinese stop buying our bonds, which will cause interest rates to go up. Throw in a large amount of foreclosures combined with people waiting to buy and the inventory will sky-rocket.

Anonymous said...

Holy shit Batman, that’s a triple in less than 6 months.

ocrenter said...

anon 9:34, you must be phucktheflipper! never got to thank you for the numbers!!

ocrenter said...

stress'd renter, the riverside numbers are just as impressive. over 15,000 inventory now!! at about half Phoenix's population. which puts it right up there with Phoenix.

Tracking Riverside County

Stressed_Renter said...

Thanks ocrenter, it looks like Riverside is losing some air as well. I wonder compared with same period last year, what does the picture look like?

Anonymous said...

I live in Riverside. In it for the long term, kids, dogs, yada, yada.
I bought my 15yr. old, 2 story house end of 2003 for 227k on a fixed. Nice neighborhood (no not all of the IE is in the dirt).
My neighbor just put her house up for sale, smaller than my home, 1 story, for 430k. WTF?? It's Homeowners Gone Wild.
If her shack sells, It wil be tempting as hell to cash out and rent a condo or something!!! My wife says I am nuts for thinking that.

Anonymous said...

These numbers don't jive with reality:
http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/location/Arizona/Phoenix/

mtnrunner2 said...

http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/location/Arizona/Phoenix/

This shows Phoenix inventory is 15,000. Is this site wrong? You show 30,000.

mtnrunner2 said...

anonymous 3:54
Sell the house, rent. I have 3 kids, a dog, and multiple small critters. Sold my custom home w/ the most expensive granite counters I could find in SD, viking and miele appliances in kitchen, on 5 acres, in one of the best school districts in SD. Why? The housing bubble. We're renting, kids are in the same school. Lots of bucks in the bank, earning mucho in interest. After the bust: will take the mucho bucks out of the bank to buy a foreclosure, remodel, pay cash. I am the woman in the household - but I think most women use their emotions and not their logic when it comes to renting vs. owning. Tell your wife she can spend $2K on painting or otherwise improving the rental - it's much cheaper than losing $300K on a house during the correction.

Anonymous said...

>>This shows Phoenix inventory is 15,000. Is this site wrong? You show 30,000.

I asked benengebreth and he acknowledeged using just some ZIP codes. For the >trend< and percents it is still representative.

Dave

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Anonymous said...

I've been in the Phoenix metro market for 16 years, and my wife is a realtor. I've seen the numbers, and we have a pretty good pulse on our local market. The inventory showing over 30,000 in January 06 is correct if you look at the entire Phoenix metro area (if you just look at the major cities, it's only half that). These numbers by themselves don't tell the whole story. Inventory is normally expressed in months, computed by dividing inventory units by number of units sold during the previous month. In months, inventory has grown steadily from 1.0 months in June '05 to nearly 4 months in January '06.

Two important points: 1) These numbers are not seasonally adjusted--sales normally slack off during the winter months which could result in artificially inflated inventory (in months), and 2) Historically, 4 months inventory is considered average, not a glut or oversupply.

However, if the trend continues, we could see significant price reductions in residential property. My own observations are that individual properties are taking longer to sell, and prices are being reduced. Medians and averages don't tell the whole story. When you see specific properties dropping prices week after week (and still not selling) it's much more telling.

Anonymous said...

Phoenix Anon,

you said:
These numbers are not seasonally adjusted--sales normally slack off during the winter months which could result in artificially inflated inventory (in months)


So what was that number a year ago at the same time?

ecblog said...

anonymous,

you said..."Inventory is normally expressed in months, computed by dividing inventory units by number of units sold during the previous month. In months, inventory has grown steadily from 1.0 months in June '05 to nearly 4 months in January '06."

Am I missing something here?? Please explain your math. If you have 1000 units of inventory and 100 sold the previous month, does that mean the average time on market is 10 months?? I don't think so. Perhaps you can enlighten me.

ecblog said...

To all those worried about a bubble. Purchase in an A location, avoid cookie cutter products, purchase with an exit strategy, purchase within your means, purchase long term and you won't go wrong.

Anonymous said...

>So what was that number a year >ago at the same time?

Sorry, I don't have that info because we weren't tracking that closely back then. Not sure where to get the historical data, maybe NAR.

Anonymous said...

>>>>Am I missing something here?? Please explain your math. If you have 1000 units of inventory and 100 sold the previous month, does that mean the average time on market is 10 months?? I don't think so. Perhaps you can enlighten me.

Inventory expressed in months and days on market are not the same thing. In your example of 1000 homes on the market and 100 sold the previous month, it would take 10 months at the current pace to sell out all the homes on the market, so the inventory is 10 months. Days on market (DOM) can still be short (we're looking at about 60 days here) depending on the rate of new listings vs. home sales. The inventory is mainly an indicator of supply/demand (I guess DOM is too, but it's a secondary indicator).

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