January 12, 2006

January 13 - 15: HousingPanic "Refer a Friend Weekend"

I started this blog as a community service. I've told my circle of friends and family all I know about bubbles, about panics, about manias, and about how we're in the mother of all speculative leveraged bubbles. This blog was a way of spreading the message beyond the folks I know personally.

People can take this information and do what they feel is right. For some, it's cashing in. For others, it's not buying at the peak. And for others, it's ignore the advice. We call all only do so much - people have to make their own decisions in life (and live with 'em)

So... I'm asking the 2,000 or so daily HousingPanic readers, all of whom should be pretty aware now of what's going on, to refer this blog to a friend or family member this weekend. Talk to folks, post the address on sites or chat boards you visit, whatever it takes.

Let people know what you've learned from this source and others. Let them know your course of action. And then tell them to take a spin on these pages.

I so wish in 2000 that there was a "NASDAQPanic" site that I had found before the market tanked and the bubble burst. I so wish I had a friend back then versed in economics, bubbles, manias and crashes. I didn't - and we all got soaked.

Spread the word. Help those you can help.

And sleep well knowing you made your best decision, and you helped others make theirs. Ignorance is bliss they say, but in this case, ignorance is bust.




Anonymous said...

I tried to refer one person, who brushed me off saying "this bubble is nonsense". He works as a Cashier in a Gas Station making $10 an hour (I am guessing). Anyhow, he is purchasing a home in Riverside, CA. 1200 sqft for $390,000. He will share this home with his brother. Married with 1 kid, he will share a 3 bedroom with his brother. Oh my, he's one of those in the flock of herds running towards a brick wall. Unfortunately, he is getting approved for a loan. I don't know how. I am watching dazzled as I make $80 K a year and every time I try to calculate what I can afford, I fall short of buying an $240K home (they don't exist in Socal). It's a puzzling situation here in California. I don't know if I should feel sorry for him or for myself.

Grinch34 said...

anonymous said

Either this person inherited a large sum of money or he is being set up for failure. At least you are rational and have enough common sense not to get in over your head.

Anonymous said...

do you know of any sites that a person would be shocked to read other than this one?
House panic
housebubble2 peakoillifeafterthecrash
I want to e-mail my friends and family this stuff and I really want to shock em.

Anonymous said...

U guys are idots we are making lots of $$ buying condos with no money down IO loans. Our realtor has showed us that real estate never does go down since they don't make land anymore. We will be worth millions in years and U blog guys will be renting crappy apartments LOL - San Diego Condo Guy

keith said...

ah... trolls.. strange fellows, aren't they

as to other blogs - see the links on the right sidebar of my site - lots of good ones - including another f*cked borrower, housingbubble2 and marin POS - my favorites

the NYT blog is a joke - written by a realtor I'd say, but the businessweek blog is excellent

Anonymous said...

Finally, someone else seems to feel my pain. I live in the DC area and no matter how I run the numbers I can't figure how to realistically afford a home (especially a condo). Yet, many friends and family, who have less combined income, have purchased very expensive homes or have had houses triple in value keep telling me to just buy before it’s too late… because spending 500k on a house in the stix is a steal for that area. They feel sorry for me and it shows and I quite frankly also don’t know who feel sorry for. Why do I feel like I’m being punished for using what seems like common sense?

Wes D said...

"Why do I feel like I’m being punished for using what seems like common sense?"

Don't worry, you're not alone.

I make as much or more than most of my friends and I'm the one who is 'stupid' because I drive a paid off old car and rent. The rest of them are living the 'bling' life with fancy SUVs and big CrapMansions in tract home land. I know all too well what their savings accounts and retirement accounts look like.....well never mind they don't have any.

The funny thing is the only one who really gets it is a lawyer who is living at home with her parents and drives a Ford Focus. She's saving cash so she can buy a place with one payment.

The Thinker said...

A man once said that stupid is as stupid does, but that man was stupid.

keith said...

Moman - remember Warren Buffet looked like a crazy old fool for never buying the internet stock hype (or a stock), instead buying companies with good business models, good PEs, good fundamentals.

He missed out on the boom, and he missed out on the bust, and he outperformed the market

Many of us did catch the boom (and we sold). Many of us missed the boom (and rented). But the key is missing the bust. If you're on the sidelines during that awfulness, then you're ready for the recovery, instead of out of the game.

But the bust will be unpleasant for everyone, even those on the sidelines, unfortunately.

Always sell early - best advice I ever heard.

Look to the fundamentals - second best advice I ever heard.

xSparta said...

Who is the idiot who is still investing in condos in SD?........ He still beleives his RE agent!

Deserves what he gets!

keith said...

xsparta - I don't think there is anyone left investing in condos in San Diego - or Miami, or Phoenix. And that's the problem - the greatest fool has already entered

And that's why listings are exploding and median price is dropping

Game. Set. Match.

A3 said...


I have been living my life in a pratical way and belive you me that it works. What you and what that lawyer are doing is the wright thing to do.

This information that I am ready to share with you it's based on my personal experience. Thanks to a practical way of thinking my wife and I was able to open Jumbo Certificates in our local Credit Union when we were 28 years old.

Then, because of a practical way of thinking, we was able to buy a income property that we was able to pay off in two years!

So please keep doing what you are doing because in the end you will be join to the list of individual called the milloner next door...

foxwoodlief said...

So Keith what do you gain from this blog site and 2000 visits a day? And if we refer all our friends and more come and view? Do you make money off this site by the visits?

Oh and $80,000 dollar guy, you can't afford a house in SoCal so why don't you move? There are lots of places left where $80,000 a year buys you a nice house.

keith said...

foxwood - I gain the pleasure of knowing I did what I could do to warn people about the bubble. pure and simple.

call me idealistic

Oh, and about $3 a day on google. Enough for a beer at the end of the day


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Anonymous said...

watch "absorption rates" closely. It's a time-tested yardstick for home sales. Does it prove that the Housing Bubble has already popped? You bet it has.

Anonymous said...

Hint #9 for . Bathrooms Sell Homes: Check and repair caulking in bathtubs and showers. Make the room sparkle!

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Enjoyed visiting your site. Got to get back to my own, where we spotlight homes for sale on a website dedicated exclusively to the selling of a home. Not just any old website. But a website highly-ranked in the search engines , with thousands of back links already in place, directing traffic to a seller's exclusive listing.

Anonymous said...

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Anonymous said...

In this "cooling off" real estate market, suggest that the average residence is shown about 4 times a week during the first 3 weeks of a real estate listing. After that, an unsold home goes "stale" ... it gets shown less .

Anonymous said...

The No. 1 sellers' complaint on the is the "showing" process ... the line of people trudging through their home, inspecting their lives, in search of who knows what .

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