January 14, 2006

HousingPanic is moving to London


Well folks, I'm off to London next week, leaving sunny (and bubblishious) Arizona for the soggy UK for a year or two.

I can tell you, if you think we're in a bubble, you should see
England, or especially Ireland. So it should be interesting to report to you from "over there".

Hopefully this will give HousingPanic more of an international flavor - 'cause the bubble is truly worldwide (see
New Zealand central banker's ongoing active attempt to deflate before it gets worse).

For those of you in Arizona - keep us posted what it's like "on the ground" here. Nothing brought the bubble more to life than to be in the middle of ground zero, and seeing the sea of for sale signs, and disappearance of 20 year old flippers, here in Phoenix.

Cheers

Keith


106 comments:

xSparta said...

Keith,

Have a nice stay in the UK

Anonymous said...

Keith,

When you get the urge for texmex check out the Texas Cantina a few yards from Trafalgar Sq - unusually good this far from the Mexico border

Enjoy your stay

-Texas Sam

277.18 Hz said...

Wow! That's very exciting. I have a feeling you won't miss Arizona too much.

- Xicote (from Tucson)

Grinch34 said...

Good luck and be safe. I think you will obtain a lot more information on how the global economy plays into the U.S. economy. Anyway I have learned a lot from your website.

Out at the peak said...

Put another shrimp on the barbie! Ooops, wrong country...

Congrats on the move. I'll love to hear your post-bubble impressions from overseas.

Anonymous said...

Why are you going to London for two years?

Dogcrap Green said...

You tapped on something here about we should see Enland's housing bubble.

I did see England. As expensive as it was. It almost seemd right to me. The uneducated would buy flats (apartments) because that is all they could afford, thanks to the bubble.

When we were 22 years old. Buying a house was the reward for going to college and preparing for your future.

Now days any idiot can buy a huge single family home.

But if any idiot can buy a house, how can we be in a bubble? The fact that any idiot can buy a house means housing is extreamly affordable.

foobeca said...

Any idiot can "buy" a house because of exotic financing. Someone making $50k/year buying a $500,000 loan will never own that house. That's simply an impossibly large sum to pay off with that income. Even if the interest rate was at 0%, it would still be unaffordable.

Using the traditional rules of 20% down and having the payment be <28% of your gross income makes houses unaffordable to 95% of californians.

Prices are higher than they've ever been and mortgage payments are higher than they've ever been, even with record low interest rates. You would expect houses to be more affordable with low interest rates, but just the opposite has happened.

Anonymous said...

foobeca,

I agree with your presumption that the sellers of loans are playing with fire.

But what about the sellers of houses?

Lets put things in a simpler view. Have you sold a used car? Many people buying a used car buy with borrow money. Did you care if they could afford your car? Does it make a difference if they default on the loan? You got your money for selling the car... End of story.

Wes D said...

Keith:

Enjoy your stay in London. Are you going to school?

I read that property prices took a decent plunge but are recently up in G.B. Could be a dead-cat bounce?

Keep on writing....

an_dochasach said...

Keith,
Good luck in the U.K. It will be interesting to hear your take on what appears to be a massive bubble in the U.K. and an even bigger one in Ireland.

keith said...

thanks all... and on your comments in the future, include links to stories here from the street - local papers, etc

I'll try my best to keep up with the US (and especially Phoenix) market - god bless the 'net

I'll be over there on business - I have a marketing consulting practice, and a UK client

could be a year, could be five, we'll see

cheers mates

John Doe said...

Anonymous said...
foobeca,

I agree with your presumption that the sellers of loans are playing with fire.

But what about the sellers of houses?

Lets put things in a simpler view. Have you sold a used car? Many people buying a used car buy with borrow money. Did you care if they could afford your car? Does it make a difference if they default on the loan? You got your money for selling the car... End of story.

Sunday, January 15, 2006 9:12:19 AM


I wish the world were as simple as your scenario...
1. You can rarely finance a lifestyle by refinancing your cars.
2. Cars rarely consume >50% of before-tax dollars in a household
3. Our GDP is not 3% higher because of used auto resales over prior purchase prices
4. There is no "wealth effect" from a car - they depreciate.
5. There is no systemic shock risk from defaulted car loans; no banks will need to be bailed out, and no investors will dump MBS's causing interest rate spikes

So.... no, don't see the correlation there.

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