December 07, 2005

WSJ: Investors fleeing real estate in Phoenix. Las Vegas, Miami, San Diego and DC - IMPORTANT ARTICLE HERE FOLKS



Wonder if the WSJ is reading this blog? Seems to be a rip-and-read from here doesn't it?

Phoenix, we have a problem

In markets such as Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix, San Diego and Washington, D.C., where investor activity had been heated, fewer people are competing to buy properties as an investment, real-estate brokers and housing analysts say. Some investor-owned properties are returning to the market for sale. With the pace of price appreciation slowing, some investors who were betting on quick profits are instead being squeezed.

The apparent pullback by investors is recent and is just beginning to show up in national data. Evidence of the development can also be seen in a number of markets that had until recently been a hotbed of investor activity.

As speculators withdraw from the market in San Diego, for instance, the number of investors buying property has fallen by nearly half, estimates Russ Valone, president of MarketPointe Realty Advisors, which tracks the San Diego housing market.

In the Phoenix area, as many as 30% of properties for sale are currently owned by investors, says Jay Butler, director of the Arizona Real Estate Center at Arizona State University.

Six months ago, most investors were buying rather than selling, he says. The shift has helped to drive up inventories of homes for sale in the Phoenix area, which climbed to 22,340 in October from 8,600 in April, according to data from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service

Some of the most vulnerable markets include Daytona, Fla., Las Vegas, Phoenix and Fresno and Bakersfield, Calif., according to Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Dennis McGill.

Some investors also are backing out of preconstruction properties they bought. In San Diego, cancellation rates for new condominium units climbed 47% in the third quarter over the second, in part because a growing number of investors are getting cold feet, according to the Building Industry Association of San Diego County.

Cancellation rates for condo units are also rising in many other markets, including Florida and metropolitan Washington, according to the National Association of Home Builders. "It's largely because of investors" pulling back, says NAHB staff vice president for research Gopal Ahluwalia. "A whole lot of condo units are sitting empty." Whether a buyer can easily get out of a deal can depend on a number of factors, including the builder's policies and the terms of the buyer's contract.

Robert Cayouette, a computer programmer, has put down deposits on 10 homes under construction in Florida, figuring he'd quickly flip them and make a profit of about $30,000 apiece. The first of those purchases, a three-bedroom home in Port St. Lucie, is expected to close this month. But Mr. Cayouette has learned he'll be lucky if the house fetches $285,000, or $10,000 less than his original purchase price. "I wouldn't be able to flip it if I wanted to," says Mr. Cayouette.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think these "offical" stats are off.. We cannot account for the loans/purchases in which the flipper lied. So if in Phx metro for example the official count is 17% investor buying... the real number could be easily double or triple that. The jist is that only 17% did an "investment loan"

Anonymous said...

I agree with "the flipper lied" statement. Plus how many are pretending to "just buy a second or retirement home"???

Anonymous said...

All those California country areas are in real trouble. It looks from the graph like the entire central state.$400,000+++ homes in an area dominated by agraculture.

blogger said...

remember the chart was for the full year. I think if you surveyed Phoenix July - Sept, 90% of mortgages were for investors - all types of investors - 2nd homes, buying because you expected your house to appreciate and resell, etc

Rob Dawg said...

I think there's a new alarm number in here somewhere.

What percentage of the transactions were for people owning one home and using conventional mortgages? 15%-20%? Maybe?

ocrenter said...

Per ziprealty.com, Phoenix inventory numbers now stand at 27,364, not 22,000 as cited by the article.

LA county, with 2.5 times the population, has 27,700 homes for sale.

All other markets I'm tracking is showing slight dip during the holiday season, the only one continuing to increase is Phoenix.

bubbletracking.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

Where can I go to track the number of home for sales in certain city of California?

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