December 21, 2005

Readers - Open thread to discuss new Housing Panic poll (see right sidebar and vote)



What is MOST likely to happen in 2006?

* Fed raises rates above 5%
* Dow closes 2006 below 10,000
* Dollar falls 10%+ to major currencies
* Bush/Cheney impeached
* Major Avian Flu outbreak
* Hurricane season worse damage than '05
* Yield curve inverts
* GM declares bankruptcy
* Major quake hits California
* Britney divorces Kevin

What did I miss? What else could speed up the housing bubble burst? Or maybe none of these bad things happen, and housing continues to skyrocket?

38 comments:

ECOBUILDER said...

Keith,
Is is kind of market targeting blog?
I suspect you get paid for polling people by your blog. Too much questions.

keith said...

I think readers are interested in what people are thinking - that's why they come to blogs (vs. mainstream press)

No, I don't get paid to ask ?s. And I gotta believe most readers enjoy the polls

Brian said...

I like the polls Keith. I think by the end of 2006 we will see the "banker" living out of his car and robbing hot dog wagons.

Katy said...

I like the polls too. How about:
Oil reaches $80 (or $100) a barrel

Excessively Diverted said...

For some bizarre reason, the massive hurricane damage isn't affecting the housing market along the northern gulf coast.

We live in the panhandle of Florida and our area got slammed hard by Ivan, Dennis, and Katrina in an 11 month period. It hasn't stopped idiots from snapping up property here. Especially waterfront houses that were under 12 feet of water when Ivan hit. It is almost impossible to get homeowner's insurance and if you can get it, the premium is triple what it was before Ivan but that hasn't stopped the buyers.

If the housing market is slowing down, we aren't seeing it here. A neighbor put her house on the market 3 weeks ago; she had 5 offers in less than 4 days. According to a local realtor, about 65% of home loans around here in the last year are either ARMs or interest only and almost 80% of buyers are either speculators or people buying vacation homes. It makes it difficult for those of us who have to live here full time to buy a house. We would leave this area in a heartbeat if we could, but the Air Force says we have to stay. So, we wait patiently for the bankruptcies and foreclosures of all those ARMs and rent in the meantime.

azfamdeals1 said...

Keep the polls coming.

keith said...

katy - forgot the oil thing - that could be a doozy.. I'm seeing predictions of getting back to $70 by march

diverted - isn't it tougher, if not impossible or crazy expensive, to find home insurance for florida coastal properties these days? I don't understand why people are still heading to FL or buying down there - seems really stupid with last 2 years activity and global warming now seen as fact not fiction...

I'd add one more to the poll - a major terrorist attack. Doesn't it seem like we're on borrowed time (thank god we are).

Jeff D said...

How much do you blame Greenspan for the insane Credit expansion that's occurred over the last 18 years?

just in time said...

I plan on going to alot of garage sales in 2006. I'm gonna buy all those goodies everybody bought with their home equity loans for half price!

mrchinup said...

diverted- I sold my house dec 1st, i was paying 1100 dollars a year for insurance. The new owner is paying 2700, allstate would not write a new policy for her. I was paying 3100 for house taxes, she will pay around 10k. She was complaining about the 2700, wait until she gets her tax bill in nov. The tax bills and the insurance bills should drive some people out of florida.

just in time said...

I also think in 2006 the media will finally be talking about the house bubble on national t.v. and start the panic selling.

NetNerdvana said...

Item 11: Global derivatives failure. (aka what is the sound of hundreds of trillions going poof?)... :)

Tom DC/VA said...

I vote for Fed rates above 5%, which leads to yield curve inversion, which leads to a dollar slump, the Dow below 8000, and GM bankruptcy.

Moman said...

Keith - thanks for turning on anony comments; my pw is stored on my broken comp.

1. Bush/Cheney will not be impeached.
2. Oil will spike > $70/brl, gasoline will hit 3.00 gal by May
3. GM won't file bankruptcy but will sell off all GMAC to raise cash after new Tahoe fails in the market.

Florida real estate will look like 1926 all over again.

Alan Greenspend said...

Concur with moman's and netnerdvana's comments (the latter perhaps not until '07). Also-

Predictions-
1.) Recession declared March '06.
2.) "Terrorist" attack on U.S. soil, and resulting political hoopla.
http://in.rediff.com/news/2005/dec/20c4.htm
3.) Increased inflation and liquidity via Bernanke, followed eventually (could be several years) by deflation.

my caveats-
a slow painful morass is also possible, a decade or two of stagflation. yuck.
or- things tend to happen much quicker in the 21st century, so the hard landing and end of Bretton Woods could be fairly abrupt.


"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
Thomas Jefferson
The Debate Over the Recharter of the Bank Bill, 1809

Moman said...

Alan Greenspend - love the name, and I believe A.G. has put this country on a very dangerous path of addition to cheap credit, one asset bubble and bust after another, and shaky economic foundations based on artificially low interest rates that can't be sustained.

Bernake will screw this country over if he stops raising rates. If I were fed chief I'd have done a couple 1/2% increases back in the spring and we wouldn't be looking at the train wreck that is coming today.

I hope you're wrong of course, but something will happen.

I thought Bretton-Woods was effectively throw out the window in 1970 once Nixon did away with gold-backed currency?

000000000000000000000000000000000000 said...

Alan Greenspend,
That is scary.

Deadly explosives stolen from US bunker
http://in.rediff.com/news/2005/dec/20c4.htm

Why isn't the story coverd by any other sources?

skep-tic said...

I do believe that either GM or Ford will declare bankruptcy by the end of next year. there's no other way they can gain sufficient leverage over the UAW to become profitable

Alan Greenspend said...

moman- Bretton Woods I was replaced with version II. Here is a persuasive document written back in Feb. by Dr.'s Setser and Roubini concerning perils to BWII (warning, long and geeky)-

Will the Bretton Woods 2 Regime Unravel Soon?

http://www.rgemonitor.com/BW2-Unraveling-Roubini-Setser.pdf

"The national budget must be balanced. The public debt must be reduced; the arrogance of the authorities must be moderated and controlled. Payments to foreign governments must be reduced, if the nation doesn't want to go bankrupt."

Cicero (106 BC - 43 BC), 55 BC

Alan Greenspend said...

hmmm, url link problem for pdf.
yay tinyurl-
http://tinyurl.com/7ofql

keith said...

AG and Moman -

Bretton Woods successor had a good run. But I think we'll all see that getting away from the gold standard allowed the greatest economy in the world to become the greatest debtor nation humanity has ever seen, since balance of payments did not have to be settled by gold, just paper.

In the end, gold worked. Paper worked for a time, but what ends Bretton Woods 2 is that paper cannot check our out of control trade deficit. The only thing that can now is a financial meltdown in the US - stops us buying the imports. Even Greenspan noted the trade imbalance is the most urgent issue for the world economy to address.

I think the bursting of the housing bubble will finally get the consumer to slow it down, get savings up, get imports down, and get our trade imbalance heading back in the right direction.

Economics 101 - the free market takes care of itself. But the bigger the gain, the bigger the pain. Everything gets back to the mean.

Anonymous said...

The gold standard was probably a bad idea, as it would contstrain economic growth to the level of some mineral in the ground.

The large increase in money supply I believe is going internationally: in practice, many other people outside the USA use the dollar

The reduction of the trade deficit can't happen as long as China keeps its near peg to the dollar. And I believe they will come hell or high water---at least for a decade or two more. They aren't capitalist---they're mercantilist---and they are interested in the permanent strategic destruction of US industrial capability.

As they aren't a democracy, they don't have to care about the main losers in this regime---China's poor.

Alan Greenspend said...

anon,
Ironically, Greenspan apparently changed his mind a number of years after he wrote this. Or, he knew precisely the entire time...


"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. .... Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights."

Alan Greenspan 1966

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